Model Output Discussion 1st January 2014-06z onwards.

[texel]

can we cut out the point scoring and concentrate on the models please.

[terrier]

Another poor outlook from the models tonight. The thing that's more concerning is the rainfall that looks like battering us for a good few weeks yet. Just wish the models would show us some dry weather for a few weeks. But that looks like wishful thinking right now

[SMU]

Despite all the above Steve the MDT has been littered by posts from your self over recent years, literally hanging on the next GFS chart and shouting from the rooftops when said chart was full of cold or cold potential, whatever the timeframe.  If you view GFS with such deep disdain, why even look at it or comment on it at all...or is it just in case that 'once in a blue moon it gets it correct' 

 

I look at the GFS to gather the information to feedback the relevent information.

 

& Post from recent years?- how many years are you going back...... 2003 maybe.

 

Now after X amount of years Surely its better to reflect whats more likely to happen that whats not- which seems to be what you & the other poster are doing.

 

If a model is more than likely going to be wrong then you cannot apply balance as if all 3 are equal..

 

But anyway I cant be ar*ed to go over it again.

 

Follow the GFS - you will be wrong most of the time.

 

Steve

[gottolovethisweather]

Latest temperature outlook from GFS for the next 8 days and parts of the north and east are now showing some blues and greys along with all of Ireland so slightly below average is possible here but in general the picture is unchanged with the vast majority of Europe staying above average

 

 

Normal temps left expected temps right

 

 

 

That first chart which you've posted there as you know SS is clearly one of my personal favourites  NOT!  Can you make sure you continue to post these up when the entrenched cold eventually returns (hopefully) to mainland Europe and in turn our shores come the second half of Winter.  Those charts may well indicate the current situation in a true blood red colour but I am left wondering whether the global weather has resorted to an Australian Summer-like pattern, perhaps we can blame the cricketers down under for the redness, somebody bring on the Winter blues......... Also, good to see the GFS returning to normality (yes that is a subjective comment) after its weekend dramas once again. I await the various ensemble spreads with anticipation for further wintry hope and hopefully upgrades.

Edited January 6, 2014 by gottolovethisweather

[Cumulonimbus Tower]

Why would he be ecstatic, just wondering? to see heights shunted east, the Atlantic sweeping through and a return to general zonality.. I'd have thought that would make him rather sad. 

 

I would imagine it might be because the GFS has changed in it's position to a more meridional flow relative to previous output, which Steve has been predicting through many of his nuanced analysis of model output over the last several days.

Edited January 6, 2014 by Cumulonimbus Tower

[Cheshire Freeze]

GEM 12z offers an interesting solution which seems to use trends from all the models to end up with the azores ridge linking over the top of a developing sceuro trough to the residual heights in n scandi. that allows for an initial scandi heights rise, a progressive atlantic moving w-e and an eventual result of high heights to our north and low ones to our south. everyone wins !!

 

I can only see the 0z, on both Wetter and Meteociel. Where you viewing this?

[Mark Bayley]

GEM 12z offers an interesting solution which seems to use trends from all the models to end up with the azores ridge linking over the top of a developing sceuro trough to the residual heights in n scandi. that allows for an initial scandi heights rise, a progressive atlantic moving w-e and an eventual result of high heights to our north and low ones to our south. everyone wins !!

 The GEM 12z is stuck at T60 on meteotciel and wetter, is it fully out elsewhere?

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/geme_cartes.php?ech=6&code=0&mode=0&carte=1&archive=0

[ANYWEATHER]

You never have anything positive and upbeat to say about chances of. Old and snow so why not lighten up and listen to what Steve says who knows more than most on here inc you and me

Really no point snipping at each other, as it wont change the model output and its very annoying for those who want to read what the models are saying and learn by the more experienced posters!!!

Edited January 6, 2014 by ANYWEATHER

[snowking]

I can only see the 0z, on both Wetter and Meteociel. Where you viewing this?

http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=eur&run=12&mod=gemglb&stn=PNM&comp=1&run2=12&mod2=gemglb&stn2=PNM&hh2=000&fixhh=1&hh=240

 

Always seems to be out earlier on there

 

SK

[Cheshire Freeze]

http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=eur&run=12&mod=gemglb&stn=PNM&comp=1&run2=12&mod2=gemglb&stn2=PNM&hh2=000&fixhh=1&hh=240

 

Always seems to be out earlier on there

 

SK

 

That'll do!

[The PIT]

The most consistent model in the last few weeks at T144 has been the ukmo GFS 00 oz and ECM have been swapping around between 2nd and 3rd. Different story at T120 where ECM rules without question then UKMO. Would be interesting to compare ECM and GFS at T240 which is the point that most posters seem to be looking at. Stats ain't there so we cannot compare.

[weather_it_will]

Some interesting ensemble members on this run. But no real answer on where any cold will come from.

 

[weather eater]

Really now point snipping at each other, as it wont change the model output and its very annoying for those who want to read what the models are saying and learn by the more experienced posters!!!

It’s a pity everybody can’t just except that others view things differently, after all does it really matter if X or Y thinks one model is better than another, the proof is always in the outcome.

[fergieweather]

 

Yeah but surely the point is Ian Fergusson has already been on today saying there was nothing mild on the horizon (in their estimation). So the question is what is it, cold or no cold?

The primary issue is how even EC ENS are struggling with the potential nature of amplification (and GFS only now showing signs of wanting to catch-up that broader story, despite normal zonal reset mode later). That, plus further potential drivers thrown into the mix later into Jan-early Feb, mean any meaningful public communication of key expected weather type is almost currently impossible beyond mid-Jan and it's highly unlikely we will be any closer to the likely outcome anytime soon.

[MR EXTREMES]

I must admit the gfs does seem to have a lull in the alantic onslaught but im in agreement in that its terriblr at making longer range developments.

if the gfs ends up being the correct model then of coarse a rethink is needed.

so lets say anything beyond t96 is not really worth getting excited about in regards to the gfs.

 

although it starts its trend like the ecm and others then goes into hypo mode.

 

now as I asked earlier is there a possibility that the vortex that's hammering the united states likely to push into the alantic then rehouse its self around Greenland again?

 

which there fore indicates why the nao and ao go neg then positive this surely is there fore taking into account the gfs run.....

 

and summer suns European heatwave charts are they also closely related to the gfs output as well because the other models send rather more cold into Russia and mid Europe quicker than summer suns heatwave charts.

 

even im getting rather confused if the other models do tend to keep the alantic onslaught going then perhaps the cold where all looking for is really a wild goose chase.

 

and pressure is still high to the south into Europe on all models this is why I feel its a fail for anything colder.

Edited January 6, 2014 by emotional rollercoaster

[nick sussex]

I wonder whether the UKMO has got the right pattern over the central USA, its much flatter than even the GFS 12hrs run and this then causes less dig south of the jet to the west of the UK.

 

Hopefully the upstream NOAA discussions will shed some light on this,at one point the UKMO looked better than the GFS but then failed to develop that more amplified wave and we can see what happens over western Europe.

[ukpaul]

GFS Ensembles seem to be trending colder with that cold moving down from the north (as seen by the Aberdeen ensembles). A lot of interesting possibles in the perturbations but all very different.

[MR EXTREMES]

• the gem is a little better but messy
• 

[Cumulonimbus Tower]

http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=eur&run=12&mod=gemglb&stn=PNM&comp=1&run2=12&mod2=gemglb&stn2=PNM&hh2=000&fixhh=1&hh=240

 

Always seems to be out earlier on there

 

SK

Interesting to see the GEM now getting it's heights from an atlantic ridge moving out of the western Atlantic from 120h. Very possibly what the UKMO would have been onto if it went out further.....

[weather eater]

 The primary issue is how even EC ENS are struggling with the potential nature of amplification (and GFS only now showing signs of wanting to catch-up that broader story, despite normal zonal reset mode later). That, plus further potential drivers thrown into the mix later into Jan-early Feb, mean any meaningful public communication of key expected weather type is almost currently impossible beyond mid-Jan and it's highly unlikely we will be any closer to the likely outcome anytime soon.

By the amount of likes your post has got Ian I expected it to say 1947 is just around the corner, however, it looks like what you are saying is that, what the key weather type will be post mid-month is impossible to say at this point.

Edited January 6, 2014 by weather eater

[The Eagle]

 

 

[R.P. McMurphy]

Nice chart from the GEM if it's snow you want...

 

 

EDIT:The Eagle beat me too it.

Edited January 6, 2014 by Glenn W

[weather eater]

Interesting to see the GEM now getting it's heights from an atlantic ridge moving out of the western Atlantic from 120h. Very possibly what the UKMO would have been onto if it went out further.....

Indeed, as BA was kind of saying a bit of a hybrid, better for cold I would say, a route to Crewe’s easterly.

[shaky]

Ecmwf???

[R.P. McMurphy]

Ecmwf???

 

What about it?