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Model Output Discussion 1st January 2014-06z onwards.


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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

    Snowballz post very concisely outlines the considered professional views on the inter-model 'debate': a great post and the sort of value that this forum benefits from.

     

    I agree with you Ian, both posts from SB and NS were first class and really put the position from someone involved in the 'business' and one as an amateur (no disrespect whatever intended) and yourself with access into the Exeter thinking.

    I really do commend the posts and comments from Ian to everyone, and that is from my viewpoint as an ex forecaster.

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    Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester

    Back to the models..

     

    6zPosted Image12zPosted Image

     

    I'll let you decide

    Woah!!thats quite a difference at just 126 hours!!looks better to me than the 06z!!
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    Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea

    And on top of that Paul Hudson at lunchtime said that there isn't even the slightest glimpse of any cold or snowy weather in the near future and beyond Posted Image

    Weather forecasters have to be careful of when using the 's' word as snow is very hard to predict at such a range and can fail to even be predicted hours in advance. I wouldn't get too hung up on what the BBC has to say about the current situation and just wait for this period of uncertainty to pass. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire

    Well the 12z is certainly trying to put up a better fight!

     

    Posted Image

     

    Could be a 'eureka!' moment for the GFS here.

    Edited by CreweCold
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    Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea

    Big steps.

     

    12zPosted Image

     

     

    6zPosted Image

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    Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

    Weather forecasters have to be careful of when using the 's' word as snow is very hard to predict at such a range and can fail to even be predicted hours in advance. I wouldn't get too hung up on what the BBC has to say about the current situation and just wait for this period of uncertainty to pass. 

     

    the point of the post perhaps is it is NOT what the BBC say it is a professional forecaster making that statement.

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    Posted
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Hoar Frost, Snow, Misty Autumn mornings
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL

    Back to the models..

     

    6zPosted Image12zPosted Image

     

    I'll let you decide

     

    If only I could.Posted Image

     

    Anyway, less progressive and lower heights over Europe, stronger heights to the N.

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    Posted
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE

    Woah!!thats quite a difference at just 126 hours!!looks better to me than the 06z!!

    Yes moving in the right direction, the GFS trend is certainly towards the ECM especially over the USA. I think we could still do with a westwards correction and more dig south in the jet to the west but overall not bad. Very happy to see the GFS developing a more favourable pattern over the eastern USA. Also really highlights just how critical small changes upstream can be to Europe.

     

    Looks like Dorothy will still beat the wicked witch! see my earlier post for the cryptic message! lol Has everyone got it yet or am I showing my age, it was always on the tv at Xmas! farm, Kansas!

    Edited by nick sussex
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    Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire

    the point of the post perhaps is it is NOT what the BBC say it is a professional forecaster making that statement.

     

    Yeah but surely the point is Ian Fergusson has already been on today saying there was nothing mild on the horizon (in their estimation). So the question is what is it, cold or no cold?

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    Posted
  • Location: North East London (E4) 147ft
  • Location: North East London (E4) 147ft

    Well the 12z is certainly trying to put up a better fight!

     

    Posted Image

     

    Could be a 'eureka!' moment for the GFS here.

    More laughable capriciousness from our mercurial American friend. Of course, if it now shows a colder solution the mildies on here will probably stop backing it...
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    Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea

    Still not there with ECM but definitely a step in the direction.

     

    GFS http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014010612/gfsnh-0-132.png?12

     

    ECM http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014010600/ECH1-144.GIF?06-12

     

    Just compare the two you will see that the ECM digs deeper into the Atlantic and has heights much stronger further north.

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    Posted
  • Location: Hebden Bridge (561 ft ASL) A drug town with a tourist problem
  • Location: Hebden Bridge (561 ft ASL) A drug town with a tourist problem

    Big steps.

     

    Jet streak heading due north to the west of Ireland on the 12z helping to inflate the HP to the North East of the BI, as opposed to curving East over the top of Scotland and flattening out the pattern previously. This could well be the GFS climb down that has been so much anticipated!

     

    ...and is that hints of a trigger Low at 156 heading into Europe? Maybe too much to ask for in one run ;)

    Edited by Cumulonimbus Tower
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    Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

    Yeah but surely the point is Ian Fergusson has already been on today saying there was nothing mild on the horizon (in their estimation). So the question is what is it, cold or no cold?

     

    a statement by someone not employed by the Met Office but Look North but Paul is a qualified Met O forecaster, why he has said this it is best to pm/e mail him, he is very approachable. All Met forecasters use the terms mild, v mild, rather cold, cold in an exact meaning, see the terminology I have posted several times.

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    Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea

    the point of the post perhaps is it is NOT what the BBC say it is a professional forecaster making that statement.

     

    That's very contradicting as, I thought the BCC received there information from the MetO?

     

    6 - 15 days.

     

    "Temperatures are likely to be near or a little above normal at first but turn rather colder with an increasing risk of frost, ice and fog."

     

    Nvm just seen what you have posted.

    Edited by SN0WM4N
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    Posted
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl

    Quite a change in the GFS 12z from yesterday for its Sunday prediction,a sizeable backtrack.

     

    today..  yesterday..

     

     

    An encouraging start for the 12z'sPosted Image 

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    Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester

    Quite a change in the GFS 12z from yesterday for its Sunday prediction,a sizeable backtrack.

     

    today..Posted Imagegfsnh-0-144.png  yesterday..Posted Imagegfsnh-2014010512-0-168.png

     

     

    An encouraging start for the 12z'sPosted Image 

    Brilliant stuff and now hopefully a good ukmo!!beem a long time since the ukmo pulled out a good run!!
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    Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea

    I've seen enough of the GFS run but some promising signals for a good old fashioned GFS backtrack.

     

    Would like to see what the UKMO has to offer.

     

    EDIT: UKMO is actually further west than its 6z run with slightly better heights north as well.

    Edited by SN0WM4N
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    Posted
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE

    What an exciting start to the evening outputs that is if you're a coldie! its still an evolving pattern, I certainly hope that now the GFS has moved towards the ECM that it collects the baton and finishes the relay!

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    Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire

    What's this, jet going under?! Lows tilted NW-SE?! Good lord!

     

    Posted Image

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    Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea

    What's this, jet going under?! Lows tilted NW-SE?! Good lord!

     

    Posted Image

    Maybe.

     

    Posted Image

    Still some heading north but a lot more going south.

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    Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester

    Already things things further west at only 60 hours on the ukmo!!compare this morning 72 hours to its updated 60 hours right now!!defo further west!!quick before it updates.

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    What an exciting start to the evening outputs that is if you're a coldie! its still an evolving pattern, I certainly hope that now the GFS has moved towards the ECM that it collects the baton and finishes the relay!

    GFS 12Z has certainly moved in the right direction Nick.:)

    Still not really seeing where any cold for the UK is going to come from though....

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    Posted
  • Location: Dublin 131.2 feet asl (40m asl)m
  • Location: Dublin 131.2 feet asl (40m asl)m

    Looking like the Steve Murr GFS backtrack to the ECM is underway, were not there yet, interesting developments though.

    We need everything to move a little more to the west in next few runs now...UKMO needs to be onside too.

    Dan

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