Model Output Discussion 1st January 2014-06z onwards.

[MR EXTREMES]

Well I think the CFS models have the right solutions!

 

and add the jma

[draztik]

Surprised by some of the posts this morning. Still, we lack consistency across the models, with the GEM gravitating towards GFS in its evolution. The ECM still going with heights to our NE, but its 10-15 ensembles are starting to drift towards a more zonal outlook. With gefs by Jan 20th, keeping the mean trough to our NW.

Day 10-15 heights ecm, gefs 6z mean t336

With the signal post day 13, for the signal to be a rather mobile westerly, by day 15.

So even if heights build per ecm, it appears at this juncture to be temporary.

Looking at the latest Teleconnections, theyre telling me our favored pattern will be zonal easing, a drier interlude with pressure rise, then returning to something akin to zonal.

Obviously, all hope not lost. When a block has been setup, they can prove stubborn to dislodge. But, the models indicate a quick return to zonality and that's where im headed too.(tho important to note, gfs says no to any block in first instance)

As for comment on the positive temp anomaly over Europe, gefs 0z sees a lot of the Balkans and mainland Europe between positive and average, even by day 16.

Lastly, this constant berating of the gfs by some members is really odd! No idea why projected synoptics of a model can cause so much emotion and disdain. And unfortunately, with that emotion any objectivity is thrown out the window, and posts become so bias. Its painful viewing.

latest UKMO - interesting!! Add to that the respected view of snowking.. For sure, im perplexed! obviously there are signals for settled weather within their forecast data and timeframe quoted. Wish we could see evidence of this within the medium term models, but alas..

Edited January 6, 2014 by draztik

[MR EXTREMES]

I wonder if la nina changes could be also causing havoc in the upper atmosphere

[Cloud 10]

I think it more pragmatism-but believe me i want the op and control to be leading the way.Trouble is,thats my heart talking ....

 

The ecm 00z ensemble mean at least gets rid of the warm anomalies which have been

limpeted over Europe,and replaces them with cold ones.

 

now..  day 10..

 

 

Whether or not it will affect the UK to any great degree will be a source of great

interest and gnashing of teeth on here!

[Average Joe]

I hope that colder risk includes snow and not just fine and dry.

Or not for those of us who are still under water.....thanks all the same. 

[MR EXTREMES]

am I right in saying is the mjo heading towards the phase 7 ?

[Newberryone]

The new update summary just posted by my UKMO colleagues at BBC Weather Centre precisely replicates what Ops Centre are currently considering as probable outcome:

"Monday 20 January—Sunday 2 February

Staying unsettled... at first

Whilst current indications point towards unsettled weather persisting through much of the rest of January, conditions are expected to be more typically unsettled for the winter season. Certainly early in this fortnight the pressure looks set to remain low to the southwest of Iceland.However, and this would be quite a change for this winter, there are some signals emerging for an increasing risk of a change to colder weather types towards the end of January. This would increase the potential for more settled conditions, leaving a lower risk of wet and windy spells than has recently been the case."

Doesn't quite scream potential I'm afraid and by this stage Spring will be upon us, or as good as, admittedly not in meteorological terms.

While last Spring brought record breaking cold to many, there's no reason whatsoever for us to believe this will be repeated this year.

While no one is saying this I know, I can't help but feel what happened,especially last March, is raising peoples expectations in counteracting what's undeniably been a huge disappointment for coldies this season.

Changes are definitely afoot, ridging from the south southwest becoming more and more apparent with each run. However, this does not bode well for cold I fear. It all appears very reminiscent of what we had to endure in the run up to Thursday Dec 12th, when the weather finally broke down after weeks and weeks of what many have called "bog standard" fare.

 

These Ecm 0z charts do nothing but reinforce my pessimism 

[Ali1977]

If a cold spell started the end of Jan there is still the potential of a very long (in UK terms) cold spell, some of our memerable winters didn't start to the end of Jan or early Feb.....

[Weathizard]

Or not for those of us who are still under water.....thanks all the same.

Agreed, had enough of the wet weather now I just want some settled weather to show up & that's saying something as I normally love the snow.Things are looking like settling a little in the models but nothing very cold which is what people seek, a lot still to be resolved though even with 144hrs.

[johnholmes]

Doesn't quite scream potential I'm afraid and by this stage Spring will be upon us, or as good as, admittedly not in meteorological terms.

While last Spring brought record breaking cold to many, there's no reason whatsoever for us to believe this will be repeated this year.

While no one is saying this I know, I can't help but feel what happened,especially last March, is raising peoples expectations in counteracting what's undeniably been a huge disappointment for coldies this season.

Changes are definitely afoot, ridging from the south southwest becoming more and more apparent with each run. However, this does not bode well for cold I fear. It all appears very reminiscent of what we had to endure in the run up to Thursday Dec 12th, when the weather finally broke down after weeks and weeks of what many have called "bog standard" fare.

 

These Ecm 0z charts do nothing but reinforce my pessimism 

 

I will have to have a look at my old forecasters handbook again and see IF the required  elements are in place for a build of both upper and surface ridging for a Scandinavian high. Long before the days of models forecasters used empirical data, that is someone had spent many days/months/year collating data to produce a forecaster guide for weather patterns in certain situations.

back in a bit

[The Eagle]

 

even the 06z NAVGEM has caught up.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/navgeme_cartes.php?ech=6&code=0&mode=0&carte=1&archive=0

 

 

See you can kind of tell we are desperate when NaffGEM is being referenced.

[johnholmes]

I will have to have a look at my old forecasters handbook again and see IF the required  elements are in place for a build of both upper and surface ridging for a Scandinavian high. Long before the days of models forecasters used empirical data, that is someone had spent many days/months/year collating data to produce a forecaster guide for weather patterns in certain situations.

back in a bit

 

well here we are, for someone to go and take a look at the current patterns to see if they match this old document-it did work pretty well from my recollections and was the subject of an article in both the Met Magazine (gawd that shows my age) and also Weather at some point if my memory is correct?

anyway here it is

 

Empirical rules for scandinavian high to developc.doc

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

METO outlook screaming Euro high for the rest of Jan now-

Unsettled in the north west UK with best of drier weather in the South east.Possible change as we head into  early Feb.

Not what most of us would be hoping for but no suprise to me hand on heart.

[shedhead]

Surprised by some of the posts this morning. Still, we lack consistency across the models, with the GEM gravitating towards GFS in its evolution. The ECM still going with heights to our NE, but its 10-15 ensembles are starting to drift towards a more zonal outlook. With gefs by Jan 20th, keeping the mean trough to our NW.

Day 10-15 heights ecm, gefs 6z mean t336

With the signal post day 13, for the signal to be a rather mobile westerly, by day 15.

So even if heights build per ecm, it appears at this juncture to be temporary.

Looking at the latest Teleconnections, theyre telling me our favored pattern will be zonal easing, a drier interlude with pressure rise, then returning to something akin to zonal.

Obviously, all hope not lost. When a block has been setup, they can prove stubborn to dislodge. But, the models indicate a quick return to zonality and that's where im headed too.(tho important to note, gfs says no to any block in first instance)

As for comment on the positive temp anomaly over Europe, gefs 0z sees a lot of the Balkans and mainland Europe between positive and average, even by day 16.

Lastly, this constant berating of the gfs by some members is really odd! No idea why projected synoptics of a model can cause so much emotion and disdain. And unfortunately, with that emotion any objectivity is thrown out the window, and posts become so bias. Its painful viewing.

latest UKMO - interesting!! Add to that the respected view of snowking.. For sure, im perplexed! obviously there are signals for settled weather within their forecast data and timeframe quoted. Wish we could see evidence of this within the medium term models, but alas..

Another excellent post Draztik and I must admit to sharing your confusion over the constant critisism of GFS. Of course it get things wrong at times and no doubt it is often more progressive and extreme re zonal pattern in particular. However as far as I'm concerned (not really interested in the so called verification stats) it has completely out shone ECM since early Autumn and it did so frequently across Summer too, especially post T+144hrs.  

 

I guess the only plausible explanation for the amount of abuse it receives is the fact it often shows what most don't want to see in Winter, but if it were a living thing I'm sure it would have successfully sued for deformation of character long ago....and won handsomely

[Steve C]

Dunno if I like the sound of 'deformation' of character. Sounds very painful. :o

[johnholmes]

I too share the wonderment at how worked up folk can get about a model, whichever one. However your comment shed' re the statistics is about as odd as those you berate about GFS performance. I would be interested in how you can convince us in what way GFS has outperformed ECMW since the autumn and before, when the statistics for the upper flow (500mb) suggests the opposite for most instances whenever I have looked and I do look fairly regularly?

[shedhead]

I too share the wonderment at how worked up folk can get about a model, whichever one. However your comment shed' re the statistics is about as odd as those you berate about GFS performance. I would be interested in how you can convince us in what way GFS has outperformed ECMW since the autumn and before, when the statistics for the upper flow (500mb) suggests the opposite for most instances whenever I have looked and I do look fairly regularly?

As I said John it a purely personal viewpoint, but it's primarily based on what GFS and ECM have projected outside my front door, rather than across the wider scale. Post 144hrs GFS has been significantly better all Winter so far imo, as it was across most of Autumn and a good part of Summer.

[johnholmes]

As I said John it a purely personal viewpoint, but it's primarily based on what GFS and ECM have projected outside my front door, rather than across the wider scale. Post 144hrs GFS has been significantly better all Winter so far imo, as it was across most of Autumn and a good part of Summer.

 

oh well-I have not kept any statistics of my own regarding that so must accept your evaluation

[Purga]

well here we are, for someone to go and take a look at the current patterns to see if they match this old document-it did work pretty well from my recollections and was the subject of an article in both the Met Magazine (gawd that shows my age) and also Weather at some point if my memory is correct?

anyway here it is

 

Empirical rules for scandinavian high to developc.doc

That's great to read - thank you!

[nick sussex]

Do people actually properly read Ians forecasts? the dates he mentioned are the 20th January onwards we're at the 6th January, if I'm reading this right the UKMO don't discount a drier spell before then and and possibilities of it turning colder but then suspect the jet will fire up and flatten any high pressure.

 

Perhaps I've got the wrong end of the stick here but that's my take on things!

[draztik]

As I said John it a purely personal viewpoint, but it's primarily based on what GFS and ECM have projected outside my front door, rather than across the wider scale. Post 144hrs GFS has been significantly better all Winter so far imo, as it was across most of Autumn and a good part of Summer.

 

The big test is right now. With the models diverging at point t96, we will see very soon who has the correct handle. For me, I remember back last month, when ECM overcooked the Northerly .... it didn't just overcook, it blew it up. The GFS was screaming "wtf", and yet this forum went into meltdown. Its the big events that I remember, and we all know about the failed easterly of last year projected by ECM. That left many truly bewildered. I was lurking at that time, and couldn't believe the reaction - as though the world had ended. I really hope we aren't going to witness something similar as the days go frwd...

[mountain shadow]

As I've said on numerous occasions the GFS may have the flatter pattern correct but only through default as that is what it is programmed to do.

 

The ECM is miles better and that is backed up by the Professionals as well as the Stats.

[Blizzardof82]

The big test is right now. With the models diverging at point t96, we will see very soon who has the correct handle. For me, I remember back last month, when ECM overcooked the Northerly .... it didn't just overcook, it blew it up. The GFS was screaming "wtf", and yet this forum went into meltdown. Its the big events that I remember, and we all know about the failed easterly of last year projected by ECM. That left many truly bewildered. I was lurking at that time, and couldn't believe the reaction - as though the world had ended. I really hope we aren't going to witness something similar as the days go frwd...

Difference this time though is ECM is not screaming easterly just showing potential of Scandi high, long way to go yet before anyone can say for sure what way this is going to go.

All I can say is there is more potential for cold weather lovers than there has been all Winter and nothing more than that.

[draztik]

Do people actually properly read Ians forecasts? the dates he mentioned are the 20th January onwards we're at the 6th January, if I'm reading this right the UKMO don't discount a drier spell before then and and possibilities of it turning colder but then suspect the jet will fire up and flatten any high pressure.

 

Perhaps I've got the wrong end of the stick here but that's my take on things!

 

When we still have such a divergence between the models, at such a short time period, who knows where we will be post the 15th. All we have are the models... Ian no doubt has access to a lot more than your average poster, so I take onboard his assessments. But with regards to later in month, all I can see at present is zonality from the ens... hence my 'scratching head' at talk of settled weather for end of Jan. Hopefully the ec32 tonight can shed some light on where we are headed... but if it shows a giant Scandi high/or settled UK weather with HP nearby, that model will have undergone a giant U-turn, as its latest output was for zonality. As ever, time will tell.

Edited January 6, 2014 by draztik

[nick sussex]

The big test is right now. With the models diverging at point t96, we will see very soon who has the correct handle. For me, I remember back last month, when ECM overcooked the Northerly .... it didn't just overcook, it blew it up. The GFS was screaming "wtf", and yet this forum went into meltdown. Its the big events that I remember, and we all know about the failed easterly of last year projected by ECM. That left many truly bewildered. I was lurking at that time, and couldn't believe the reaction - as though the world had ended. I really hope we aren't going to witness something similar as the days go frwd...

Its unlikely because the infamous December debacle of last winter showed some exceptionally cold air making it west with snow a high probability, so in a sense there was more to lose.

 

In this case we haven't really had the bitter cold/snow carrot dangled so I don't think there'll be quite the same level of drama if it implodes.The actual implosion of last years easterly was the culmination of two things that went wrong collectively, the appearance of a shortwave north of Norway and the flattening of the upstream pattern.

 

Theres always problems with input data towards the Arctic ocean areas and that's why you can often see more model volatility in those situations.