Model Output Discussion 1st January 2014-06z onwards.

[winterof79]

I do like a good battle

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014010600/ECH1-144.GIF?06-12

Cold encroaching too

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014010600/ECH0-144.GIF?06-12

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2014010600/UW144-7.GIF?06-06

[Radiating Dendrite]

To my eye it looks a similar set up to that we saw in March - weak hieght rises deflecting the jet stream south.

There id some very deep cold air being projected in West Russia, if we manage to get that coming west.........

[london-snow]

Disappointing GFS, was hoping for a good start of the day from the models....

I think although you can only comment on what you see that you should wait to see where this ties in with the ensembles before jumping the gun. What some folk don't realise is that it's a very finely poised situation with a number of options all possible as very well explained in previous posts from steve murr and nick sussex.Comments like the gfs has outperformed the ecm for a while so i back it to be correct is the wrong way of looking at it I feel. It may be true percentage wise over a period of time however every day is different and any of the so called ' Big Three ' can pick a pattern and eventually the outcome can be close to the mark or nowhere near that's the fun and games or in some cases nightmare of why we keep coming back year in and out.

[NickR]

I think although you can only comment on what you see that you should wait to see where this ties in with the ensembles before jumping the gun.What some folk don't realise is that it's a very finely poised situation with a number of options all possible as very well explained in previous posts from steve murr and nick sussex.Comments like the gfs has outperformed the ecm for a while so i back it to be correct is the wrong way of looking at it I feel. It may be true percentage wise over a period of time however every day is different and any of the so called ' Big Three ' can pick a pattern and eventually the outcome can be close to the mark or nowhere near that's the fun and games or in some cases nightmare of why we keep coming back year in and out.

The ens for the 00z are out now, and they show a pretty good consistency. The operational is generally at or a bit below the mean.

Edited January 6, 2014 by NickR

[Great Plum]

The ens for the 00z are out now, and they show a pretty good consistency. The operational is generally at or a bit below the mean.

Pretty much on the mean to be honest for London...http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.pngSome comedy ensembles on there by the looks of things...The ECM shows another 'nearly' scenario but plenty of time to change there... Essentially, we are under high pressure for a while which will help dry as out...http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1441.gifhttp://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gifAt least if this comes off, we can't say that Europe is mild... http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2402.gifPlenty to play for...

[bluearmy]

might look the same but to our ne, that ECM run is very different to yesterday mornings. Thicknesses over scandi some 30 dam higher, despite similar pressure levels. What difference? Well yesterday mornings block up there was a frigid beast and would prove very hard to shift. Today's run produces a regular height rise block which will, depending on what happens upstream/downstream, prove much easier to 'deflate'. Advecting those cold uppers over us will prove much more tricky with the northern arm preventing the surface high getting far enough north.

[The Eagle]

Not much for coldies this morning from the big 3. GFS is consistently pretty horrible at this stage. UKMO is not lighting any fires either. Happy enough with the ECM though - just enough potential there to appease the early birds (144 chart really interesting).

 

 

I was hoping the models would be more in tune at this stage one way or the other. If anything they have diverged even more from each other around the 120 timeframe. Whether that's good or bad who knows.

 

Still optimistic for the 10 - 14 day range

Edited January 6, 2014 by The Eagle

[IDO]

As it looked yesterday's 12z from GEM had moved much closer to the ECM and that gave it little wiggle room. This morning it continues to now head towards the GFS. The surface ridge to Scandi is very transitional and by T240 we have a UK high:

 

 

ECM still trying with height rises:   But with each run, a UK high or Euro high looking more likely. 

 

UKMO heading that way at best: 

 

GFS never really builds the ridge NE but still has height rises to the UK but more S/SE centric:  

 

The GEFS do try a bit harder to ridge NE at T168 so there are heights further north than last nights 12z, but overall no clear signal and they are much as they were, zonal the further north you are:

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=1&ech=168

 

No sign of cold from any model; the GEFS mean 2m temp is poor with no sign of even a frost:

 

 

As always, it seems, the models move to a middle ground. However I am learning that unless we get GFS on board we must always question any blocking that ECM forecasts in FI. Still time for changes either way and the ECM ens will be interesting.

 

 

 

 

[sebastiaan1973]

Well. In my opinion UKMO would show at 168h some northerly expansion of high pressure (because of the low by France). In general terms, again and again EC tries to build high pressure in northern Europe. So perhaps several attemps are needed.

[winterof79]

As it looked yesterday's 12z from GEM had moved much closer to the ECM and that gave it little wiggle room. This morning it continues to now head towards the GFS. The surface ridge to Scandi is very transitional and by T240 we have a UK high:

 

gem-0-240 (1).png

 

ECM still trying with height rises: ECM1-240.gif  But with each run, a UK high or Euro high looking more likely. 

 

UKMO heading that way at best: UN144-21 (1).gif

 

GFS never really builds the ridge NE but still has height rises to the UK but more S/SE centric:  gfs-0-240.png

 

The GEFS do try a bit harder to ridge NE at T168 so there are heights further north than last nights 12z, but overall no clear signal and they are much as they were, zonal the further north you are:

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=1&ech=168

 

No sign of cold from any model; the GEFS mean 2m temp is poor with no sign of even a frost:

 

graphe6_1000_306_141___Londres (1).gif

 

As always, it seems, the models move to a middle ground. However I am learning that unless we get GFS on board we must always question any blocking that ECM forecasts in FI. Still time for changes either way and the ECM ens will be interesting.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Not sure i have understood your comment correctly.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014010600/ECU0-216.GIF?06-12

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014010600/ECU4-216.GIF?06-12 not to say this will come off but its a cold feed.

The MET also forecast an increase in frosts in the medium term which goes to show that if GEFS show none then its pants.

 

 

 

 

 

Edited January 6, 2014 by winterof79

[IDO]

Hi Winter79.

Not judging whether GFS is "pants" but bearing in mind UKMO is usually a mix of ECM and their in house models, no surprise it doesn't match GFS poor take on things.

As per frosts, sorry IMBY post, ens for London.

[Frosty.]

In our current situation, if I was offered P3 GEFS 00z I would grab it with both hands to deliver us from this evil non winter so far, It feels like autumn has just carried on from nov 30th with zilch for all us long suffering coldies to smile about unless you live on top of cairngorm but I still believe we will see a pattern change with colder weather on the way, chin up fellow coldies..our time will come.

[weather eater]

Again this morning I see nothing that has changed my prognosis of (sounding like an old drum) Atlantic running out of steam, MLB and then back to zonal, seems to me the only thing the models have yet to work out is exactly how that MLB will set up and how long it will last for. One thing the operational’s do agree on is that there no sign of any major cold outbreak coming our way for the time being.

[Gibby]

Good morning one and all. Here is today's report from the NWP for the period from midnight last night to 21st January lifted from http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis(2859336).htm

 

All models show an intense depression West of Scotland which will continue drifting slowly NE to a position North of Scotland by midweek, having filled considerably by then. The weather pattern as a result of this will be similar for all with strong to gale force SW winds slowly decreasing with time but carrying showers and occasional longer spells of rain, these particularly to the South and SE towards midweek. Some of the showers will be heavy and thundery with hail but quite scattered at times. Temperatures in this strong SW flow will remain close to average and rather mild at first in the South.

 

GFS then shows a trough crossing East on Thursday carrying the last of the showers over and away East from this current system. However, following a transient ridge and attendant dry weather the rest of the week sees further troughs cross East at times in the slacker Westerly flow with further outbreaks of rain at times in average temperatures. Through next week High pressure moves up close to the South and SE for a time with a fine and dry inerlude for many before unsettled, sometimes windy and changeable conditions return later with rain and showers for all in average temperatures though a little snow is possible on Northern hills in the more showery periods.

 

The GFS Ensembles seem to agree with the overall message of the operational with some variability between the members of the set with a few going cold at times but a fair few staying milder than average too leading to an overall consensus that things are most likely to remain Atlantic based with rain at times and temperatures never far from average.

 

UKMO today shows next Sunday with High pressure to the SE having declined with a small area of Low pressure developing to the SW bringing another hindrance to the drying up process as it looks like it would send cloud and rain North and East across Britain later in the day.

 

GEM this morning brings some slow moving fronts across the UK next weekend with some rain before finally pressure rises and High pressure forms close to SW Britain late in the run with quiet and benign conditions developing in average temperatures while northernmost areas stay rather more cloudy under a Westerly breeze. Slight night frosts could develop across Southern Britain later.

 

NAVGEM continues it's unsettled vein right out to the end of it's run making next weekend unsettled and breezy with rain at times as yet another Low pressure crosses East over the far North with Westerly winds for all.

 

ECM this morning shows High pressure over France next weekend moving NE to Scandinavia later at the same time as a deepening Low moves North over the Eastern Atlantic sending troughs East into the UK. Some fine relatively mild and dry conditions early next weekend would be replaced by wet and colder weather as the troughs having moved in from the West disrupts over the UK and slides away SE later with pressure then rising again. The run ends with the Jet Stream flattening the Scandinavian High and we end up with what looks like a mid latitude block forming close to Southern Britain later next week with dry and fine weather with overnight frost and fog patches, especially towards the south and SE.

 

The ECM 9 and 10 Day Mean Chart show a better overall outlook for those looking for cold with the trend or bias for High pressure to the East of the UK or indeed Scandinavia looking quite high next week. Fronts are likely to be attacking any European attack from cold and this could result in slow moving fronts over Western Britain later with more unwanted rain and possibly snow if enough undercutting can take place.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2161.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

 

The GFS Jet Stream Forecast is for the current flow to subside in a few days with the flow arching North strongly over the Atlantic while breaking up, lighter and more diffuse by next weekend. In Week 2 the genral theme is for it to blow more variably in track and speed though still close to the UK at times late in the run.

 

In Summary today there is not a lot of change with just a shuffling about of outcomes shown between the runs. It still looks very unlikely that any significantly colder weather is likely over the period covered by this morning's runs however the ECM mean Charts for next week aren't at all bad for the cold fraternity providing we could tap into some cold continental air. However, what this morning's do show is an increased chance of drier if not dry weather next week giving flood stricken communities a chance to mop up as the Atlantic train of Low pressure becomes weakened and de-railed due to High pressure building to the South or East of the UK. Some frost and fog look like becoming possible next week over the very wet ground principally towards the South and SE but unless the models have the position of the High wrong then daytime temperatures outside of any fog look like remaining quite reasonable unless ECM's mean can be pushed towards cold further.

[Mucka]

Good morning, brief summary of the output from me this morning.

 

Pretty much as you were this morning which isn't great news for coldies, we wanted the UKMO to come on board but it's still fast and flat, actually worse than yesterday if you want to see it moving toward the ECM.

GFS offers absolutely nothing for coldies in hi res.

That said the upstream pattern is conducive to further height rises to our NE so not a dead loss despite what GFS FI produces.

 

GEM a small step in the wrong direction, somewhere between ECM and GFS.

 

ECM sticking to its guns with another close but no cigar run.

 

JMA looks okay out to 84, would probably back ECM.

 

On the face of it the output is not good this morning with no real prospect of cold being shown in the output other than adding some ifs and buts.

But...

The signal upstream for how fast and amplified the pattern out of the States is over the next few days is extremely mixed so we can still expect models to swing one way or the other, let's hope it's for the slower more amplified pattern ECM is picking up on.

 

Basically we are no nearer to knowing how things will pan out this morning than we were yesterday and with this uncertainty there is nothing for us to get our teeth into except to speculate which model is more likely correct. However the UKMO runs of late certainly do not breed confidence the ECM has it nailed.

Edited January 6, 2014 by Mucka

[shedhead]

Not really a lot that can be added to what's already been covered by Gibbys excellent post, but from a personal perspective I'm becoming increasingly encouraged by the big 2's want to build pressure and dry things out, especially next week...happy to see that develop first, then worry about cold afterwards, but how welcome would a week of strong easterlies be to suck up some of this moisture? 

Edited January 6, 2014 by shedhead

[picog]

CFSv2 keeping winter temperatures above average through January and March, and keeping us wet too!

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/htmls/euT2me2Mon.html

Edited January 6, 2014 by picog

[Downpour]

My priority at the moment is for dry weather. Couldn't give a stuff about cold at this juncture. Just someone turn off the tap. Looks like a drier picture after midweek, I'll worry about cold later.

Edited January 6, 2014 by Downpour

[I remember Atlantic 252]

CFSv2 keeping winter temperatures above average through January and March, and keeping us wet too!http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/htmls/euT2me2Mon.html

 

thank heavens its an unreliable model, first snow in April, feb and march and April still hopeful of cold, at least in 1 of the months

[cooling climate]

Stratospheric forecasts this morning are again poor the GFS strat charts are jumping around

like a cat on a hot tin roof. Yesterday they were showing almost a split vortex at 30mb and lower

where as today the vortex remains strong throughout the run.With such inconsistency it is hard

to make any sort of longer range forecast but without some serious disruption and weakening

to the vortex  that has appeared in the strat charts over the last week or so then a pattern change

to much colder and wintry weather is less likely.

Taking the ECM and GFS op runs this morning at face value you would have to say that we are at

the very least a good 14days away from any thought of colder wintry weather affecting the UK.

Of course this can change but there is little sign of it from the models this morning.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

got to say that for me position of main trough has thrown my forecast out. I too can now see only middle ground. The window is not being taken for now it seems, ecm is ok but doesn't take that leap which is a concern for cold.

 

Several days off now, see where we are come Friday

 

 

 

BFTP

Edited January 6, 2014 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[snowking]

Stratospheric forecasts this morning are again poor the GFS strat charts are jumping around

like a cat on a hot tin roof. Yesterday they were showing almost a split vortex at 30mb and lower

where as today the vortex remains strong throughout the run.With such inconsistency it is hard

to make any sort of longer range forecast but without some serious disruption and weakening

to the vortex  that has appeared in the strat charts over the last week or so then a pattern change

to much colder and wintry weather is less likely.

Taking the ECM and GFS op runs this morning at face value you would have to say that we are at

the very least a good 14days away from any thought of colder wintry weather affecting the UK.

Of course this can change but there is little sign of it from the models this morning.

It perhaps depends upon which perspective (time-wise) you are looking at it CC.

 

In the shorter term you are completely correct, with just enough of a ridge at 100mb to give us the interest around Scandinavia towards the end of this week but nothing too significant currently modelled...that could still change but for now it looks mostly cool and dry (thank goodness) with perhaps Western areas more prone to something less settled.

 

However it has been stressed by numerous posters ever since September that this winter would be one that required patience. Most of the stratospheric posters have not been expecting anything of too much excitement until later in January and towards February, and to that extent there are some very encouraging signs this morning.

 

The first being this:

 

 

With the E-P Flux forecast finally heading somewhere a little more poleward which helps to deflect wave activity to where we want it to be going.

 

The other encouraging thing though from a tropospheric point of view should be this:

 

 

A scandinavian high is a classic tropospheric precursor to an increase in wave 2 activity a little way down the line. Remember December 2012, the failed 'beast from the east'? The high really stalled out over Scandinavia...but a few weeks later we started to see the an increase in both wave 1 and wave 2 activity (wave 1 I believe was driven by the pattern over the pacific) and come early January 2013 we saw the results. Admittedly we would probably like to see the Scandi HP a little further North of where it is shown at present (assuming of course it does verify) but that should be an encouraging sign for anyone seeking cold - it forms the basis of Cohen's snow advance index theory, with the rapid increase in snow cover aiding the development of a siberian high which ridges Westwards in to Scandinavia and in turn leads to an increase in wave 2 activity (thanks to all kinds of feedback mechanisms) a few weeks later.

 

So in summary shorter term my punt is for cool and dry and I think that has always been the favoured scenario - along with offering relief from the relentless rainfall and strong winds. But it is longer term prospects that continue to excite and up until now this sits bang in line with the majority of winter forecasts.

 

SK

Edited January 6, 2014 by snowking

[Frosty.]

Well it's blue monday, the most miserable day of the year but I'm dreaming of increasingly blue T850 hPa in the next few weeks, it's funny to think that last april was more wintry than anything so far while north america gets all those lovely blizzards..

[Downpour]

CFSv2 keeping winter temperatures above average through January and March, and keeping us wet too!http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/htmls/euT2me2Mon.html

Great news for cold fans then - the CFS has been happily settled in chocolate fireguard country all winter. Here's to record snows until spring!

[Summer Sun]

No change across Europe for the next 8 days which takes us to the half way point of winter on the 14th with the majority of Europe staying above average

 

 

Average temps left expected temps right