Model Output Discussion 1st January 2014-06z onwards.

[Purga]

Mmmm, ice day.

 

At 9.00 am maybe after a frost but hardly an 'ice day' for most - by 18.00hrs the temps have maxed above freezing everywhere except the Scottish Highlands

[nick sussex]

The GFS 18hrs run has already performed a backtrack upstream in the USA as it now doesn't phase the streams until much later across the east, its moved towards the ECM over there.

 

As for downstream in Europe it tried but is still making hardwork of things. 

 

In terms of the ECM De Bilt ensembles cold watch, tonights 12hrs run below:

 

 

This mornings 00hrs:

 

 

And yesterdays 12hrs:

 

 

I'd like to order the ensemble member that delivers a max temp of between -4 and -6 for De Bilt for tomorrow as the ECM operational run!

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Ice Day]

You have to laugh!!!!!!

 

 

And we end up with the PV over the UK!!

 

Edited January 5, 2014 by Ice Day

[SMU]

So then, discrepancies between the ECM & GFS @ 120- over the States causing amplitude issues further downstream over the UK.

 

Ring any bells? - rewind 4 days, & were in the same boat here-

 

GFS not enough trough digging in the pattern

 

ECM @ 120

 

GFS @ 120

 

open both & note how the GFS doesn't develop the low early enough & SW enough, therefor is progressive with the low & the whole pattern of being progressive becomes even more progressive later in the run as the high cannot build.

 

The 18z is a step in the right direction but far enough- remember small increments run by run..

 

S

 

 

[Purga]

Don't agree. FI is particularly useful at these times when looking for an overall pattern shift. 

I would say GFS FI is particularly useless at times like this!

As S M would say I'm not happy, in fact I'm quite sad...

[Carl46Wrexham]

You have to laugh!!!!!!

 

Any re-run of the crap we've already would be catastrophic for the areas that are flooded. Roll on Spring.

[jvenge]

Can we say for certain this trash we have had the past two weeks is about to end? ;-) Well, as certain as we can...

[Jason M]

I have a feeling that GFS may well be correct in broad terms. I though it very interesting that its entire ensemble suite shifted on the 12Z run. The positioning of the many shortwaves to our North changes on each run but the 'pattern' is not broken and will just continue regardless. Its also worth considering that for all the 'promise' in the charts I've hardly seen any in recent days that deliver an end result.

 

The PV is still parked in Canada / Greenland and the temperature contrast over the US will just keep the jet powered. Until that changes then we are stuck with what we have. It doesn't look like changing any time soon.

 

I'm also not convinced about the drying out aspects going forward. If heights build to our east / southeast then we could end up stuck in the middle with slow moving rainbands and a southerly draw. In essence a battleground scenario but with mild 850s (as the near continent is mild).

 

NAVGEM has just updated and has moved towards the 'no' camp. To be fair even the models in the 'yes' camp are actually saying 'near miss'.

 

Its only my view based on what I see, but tomorrows another day and lets wait and see if the 18Z ensemble suite backs up the 12Z suite.

[john pike]

updated 120 fax chart

 

press f5 if not showing friday

 

[EML Network]

updated 120 fax chart

 

press f5 if not showing friday

 

That about sums it up for me. 

 

A very complex set up which can go one of about 20 different ways. 

 

That chart shows where FI starts and I wouldn't like to be a forecaster trying to predict what comes next looking at that FAX update. 

 

The only thing that is apparent is that there is little sign of cold setting up shop in the UK and staying for any longer than a day or two at best. 

 

Perhaps the back end of January will offer up more hope, but I very much doubt it based on the background signals ?

[Frosty.]

Roll on Spring.

Roll on winter more like, this has been the longest autumn ever!

[SMU]

Last one from me tonight-

 

GFS 18z ensembles gradually smelling the coffee.....

 

19 for example

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?ech=114&code=19&mode=0&carte=1

 

I will leave it to frosty to pick out the best runs.

 

S

[Captain Shortwave]

Roll on winter more like, this has been the longest autumn ever!

Autumn 2012 was longer.... it started in April 

I still think some large area of heights will build to the east of the UK into week 2, of course at this stage we are not sure how far north and the level of orientation of the high which of course will effect how cold it will be at the surface. A definite chance of colder weather arriving, more likely surface based but with an immense cold pool developing over western Russia in the near future, it's fair to say we have a real big prize if we can shift the cold air our way.

[weather eater]

For me the 18z is just keeping broadly in step with earlier runs, zonal slowing down then an element of MLB for a while before going back to zonal, it’s not very palatable but it is a clear trend as far as I can see, the ECM much keener on blocking, classic standoff situation which means more forum drama tomorrow, it’s like watching a courtroom drama, who will crack first and confess all.

It was me milord I couldn’t help it, I’m addicted to zonal

[Yarmy]

Autumn 2012 was longer.... it started in April 

I still think some large area of heights will build to the east of the UK into week 2, of course at this stage we are not sure how far north and the level of orientation of the high which of course will effect how cold it will be at the surface. A definite chance of colder weather arriving, more likely surface based but with an immense cold pool developing over western Russia in the near future, it's fair to say we have a real big prize if we can shift the cold air our way.

Yeah, agree. I'm more sanguine now about future prospects than I have been for a while. The one consistent theme across all the output is a stalled Atlantic and weak heights to our N/NE. We are beyond the peak strength of the PV so opportunities will present themselves, although it may take a few attempts.

[SMU]

Not many zonal members in the ENS suite- minority infact....

 

Some with the ECM cut off low @ 120-

 

Most notable is the COBRA run. Best run of all winter- lets hope we see many more of these over the next few days..

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=12&ech=6&carte=1&mode=0

 

S

NOTE HOW COLD CANADA IS @ 348-  sort of blows the cold Canada theory out the window.

Edited January 5, 2014 by Steve Murr

[Mucka]

Not many zonal members in the ENS suite- minority infact....

 

Some with the ECM cut off low @ 120-

 

Most notable is the COBRA run. Best run of all winter- lets hope we see many more of these over the next few days..

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=12&ech=6&carte=1&mode=0

 

S

NOTE HOW COLD CANADA IS @ 348-  sort of blows the cold Canada theory out the window.

 

 

Cold 850's creeping in at 360h? 

Hopefully we can do better than that but there doesn't seem to be any quick routes to cold this Winter - ECM ensembles not bad, though it would be nice to see them continue trending colder toward the end.

 

GFS ensembles flip flopping all over the place.

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?x=259&y=89&run=18&runpara=0&type=0&ext=1

Edited January 6, 2014 by Mucka

[lorenzo]

Not many zonal members in the ENS suite- minority infact....

 

Some with the ECM cut off low @ 120-

 

Most notable is the COBRA run. Best run of all winter- lets hope we see many more of these over the next few days..

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=12&ech=6&carte=1&mode=0

 

S

NOTE HOW COLD CANADA IS @ 348-  sort of blows the cold Canada theory out the window.

 

If any of you are doubting the legend that is Mr Murr look no more

 

Model Genius - props to that guy..

 

Watch what he sees folks...

[Panayiotis]

00z coming out and at 90hrs we have a delayed phasing of the lows (NE UK and SE Greenland) which is definitely a positive sign to start another day of model watching!

18Z left, 00z right

 

Edited January 6, 2014 by Panayiotis

[Ali1977]

Disappointing GFS, was hoping for a good start of the day from the models....

[shaky]

Disappointing GFS, was hoping for a good start of the day from the models....

Well ali at the moment its looks like its going one way and that is to go with the current damp rainy weather we have had recently!!if ecm backs dowm this morning then I think that will be that!!gfs in my opinion has outdone ecm more often often than not so far this winter and I have a feeling this will be no different!!surprising how well gfs has done actually!!

[The PIT]

Once again GFS doesn't show any cold bar the odd modified PM air being brought across the Atlantic. The Atlantic too strong despite winding down a bit. Of course you can still pick the cold chart in Deep FI and speculate about the speculative chart.

[Iceni]

Not many zonal members in the ENS suite- minority infact....

 

Some with the ECM cut off low @ 120-

 

Most notable is the COBRA run. Best run of all winter- lets hope we see many more of these over the next few days..

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=12&ech=6&carte=1&mode=0

 

S

NOTE HOW COLD CANADA IS @ 348-  sort of blows the cold Canada theory out the window.

 

 

I've been keeping an eye on the BC road cams and weather stations as I want to emigrate there. I'm really surprised how ordinary winter temperatures have been over Christmas week - 6 am and just -3ºC this week. Granted temperatures don't rise much during the day, but I'd have expected more double figure minus temperatures - there seems to have been a lot of overnight cloud cover recently and it looks mostly dull and a bit foggy by day.

 

http://www.drivebc.ca/#mapView&z=10&ll=49.3362%2C-117.297447

 

Of course, now I've posted the above, it's down to -12ºC at 9 pm their time... the cloud must have cleared.

Edited January 6, 2014 by Iceni

[That ECM]

Well ali at the moment its looks like its going one way and that is to go with the current damp rainy weather we have had recently!!if ecm backs dowm this morning then I think that will be that!!gfs in my opinion has outdone ecm more often often than not so far this winter and I have a feeling this will be no different!!surprising how well gfs has done actually!!

The output is starting to show a change but people need to appreciate that the meto are suggesting a change but from mid month onwards. In model output time, that is a long time in the future. T240 from now puts us on the 16th. We know that d10 output changes all the time, be that GFS, ECM or any other model. I genuinely do not expect to see any consistency in output suggesting cold until Thursday or Friday. Detail, as always, will be difficult but theme by then will hopefully suggest something more seasonal. JH and others suggest looking at upper air patterns for mid month onwards. Chino put up some output yesterday which showed possible upper air pattern and this was encouraging. I do understand why people would look at the current runs and be disappointed but give it time to come into the more reliable time frame.http://images.meteociel.fr/im/7954/ECH1-144_ujb1.GIFECM is following on from yesterday with no back track as some had thought it would. Edited January 6, 2014 by That ECM

[Blizzardof82]

Well ali at the moment its looks like its going one way and that is to go with the current damp rainy weather we have had recently!!if ecm backs dowm this morning then I think that will be that!!gfs in my opinion has outdone ecm more often often than not so far this winter and I have a feeling this will be no different!!surprising how well gfs has done actually!!

Are you sure? I was under the impression ECM was leading with verification stats this winter, unless of course you can prove me wrong?