Model Output Discussion 1st January 2014-06z onwards.

[karlos1983]

Don't mean to be funny but how many times has the ECM lead us up the garden path this winter. With people slating the gfs. Only in the end the gfs has proved to be correct model. In my opinion the ECM has gone down in my estimations this winter.

 

But the gfs throws out 4 runs a day, in comparison to the ECM, twice. Inter run variability from the GFS is out on it's own.

[IDO]

Oh dear. Rubbish GEFS.

 

Not one GEFS at T180 has heights to the NE compared to 45% on the 0z, 33% on the 06z:

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=1&ech=180

 

GFS has spotted something or the whole operation and ensemble run is an outlier.

Edited January 5, 2014 by i'm dreaming of...

[Mucka]

UKMO 144 is like the ECM

 

S

 

Too far East for me and where is the reinforcing WAA going to come from - even ECM 00z Op had Southwest flow day 10 so personally I'm not enthusiastic about today's UKMO but at least the ridge is still there I guess.

 

GEM is much better, further West with a more amplified pattern upstream.

 

 

We could easily have things corrected back West again tomorrow though and still ECM to come tonight.

[MR EXTREMES]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/geme_cartes.php?ech=6&code=0&mode=0&carte=1&archive=0 BIG  chipper GEM run coming I feel- People looking in the wrong place need to focussing in on the low T 138 Digging south towards the azores as it will encourage high pressure north on the eastern flank & force energy south into benelux S

And it won't happen Steve to much heights to our south.Its a lost cause chasing colder set up and the models are showing the same garden path episodes like the ones back in November.

[SMU]

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gem/runs/2014010512/gem-0-240.png?12

 

 

GEM is the same evolution as the ECM Mean from 00z.

 

S

Edited January 5, 2014 by Paul

[karlos1983]

Not much wrong with this from the GEM, heights to North East, Low heading South East, allowing clod to push in from the NE.

 

[draztik]

GFS has spotted something or the whole operation and ensemble run is an outlier.

well, all ill say is gefs is very similar to the ec32, which stayed pretty zonal. But definitely, if the gfs has gotten this wrong, then it will be a rather huge fail. My hunch is, we will see an eventual pattern similar to that of gfs than the others. Edited January 5, 2014 by draztik

[Blizzardof82]

As ever more conflicting and confusing posts for newbies and the less informed to get their heads round

[legritter]

Not much wrong with this from the GEM, heights to North East, Low heading South East, allowing clod to push in from the NE.

 

CLOD followed by snod ,yes a good chart .

[Cloud 10]

...and the score is 3-1 now,a superb long range effort by the GEM. 

 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gem/runs/2014010512/gemnh-0-210.png

[nick sussex]

In terms of how you get to an easterly with high pressure to the south, you do indeed need the high to ridge north on the eastern flank of that troughing which then sends a shortwave into the continent, that ridge and the ridge to the ne combine after this point.

 

Its all about how far east the pattern is and how much dig south you get in the Atlantic, if you get the dig because of the set up to the ne you will get the Scandi high.

 

Heres a very good illustration of this way to an easterly, look at the mid Atlantic troughing and how far south its dug on chart 3. Looking at the first chart people would say easterly no way but it landed!

 

 

 

 

 

 

From start to easterly 5 days.

 

If the ECM develops a big dig south in the jet far enough to the west then you will get a Scandi high.

Edited January 5, 2014 by nick sussex

[Ali1977]

GEFS are not great, they have shown some promise of late, however not this time!!

 

Hopefully a good ECM followed by 18z will cheer this place up..

 

Except P19 in deep FI

Edited January 5, 2014 by Ali1977

[Summer Sun]

GFS temperature anomaly across Europe remains above average for the majority

 

 

Normal temps left expected temps right

 

 

Across the pond in the USA temperature here in some places remain well below normal as much as 6c below normal for some

 

[chionomaniac]

Right - let the team deal with any issues - please report posts and don't respond to what you may think may be trolling. Thanks.

[Jason M]

The GEFS out to 300 hours have moved massively away from the idea of northern blocking tonight and GFS has had a nasty habit of being correct this year in terms of the upper air pattern.Just for clarity I don't claim to know the answer as to where we will end up and GFS may be proved wrong but the assumption by some that it's being over progressive might prove wrong.

end up with a UK high. A mid lat high would surely be the betting mans punt at this stage given what's on offer at present.

Edited January 5, 2014 by Paul

[Bobby]

GEFS mean at +300, need a scanning electron microscope to see anything positive for cold in that. Shall be interesting to see what the ECM and its ensembles show tonight. If something like the GFS and its ensembles then it would seem its a long road to cold and snow indeed? If the  ECM ensembles continue from the 00z theme then it's more intriguing.

 

Edited January 5, 2014 by Bobby

[Grimsby Snow Lover]

For what its worth the NAO forecasts looks like heading very slightly negative over the next week or so.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.sprd2.gif

Whilst the AO looks like it go either strongly negative or strongly positive.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.sprd2.gif

I guess the sheer spread shown in the AO ens could suggest a pattern change over the pole is likely.

[Bobby]

If the ensembles in particular continue from the 00z then it's more interesting.

[MR EXTREMES]

Problem is to be fair there's really nothing exciting on the models tonight.If anything there's been a major climb down.To be honest as well I don't see an easterly being able to establish its self I can see the vortex though establishing itself around Greenland.and any warming in the strat if any is likely to hit a brick wall noticed solar activity has doubled its output so I think were see eye candy for the next few days only for it to revert back to cool westerly type flow.

[lassie23]

For what its worth the NAO forecasts looks like heading very slightly negative over the next week or so.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.sprd2.gif

Whilst the AO looks like it go either strongly negative or strongly positive.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.sprd2.gif

I guess the sheer spread shown in the AO ens could suggest a pattern change over the pole is likely.

I agree,  a pattern change  will eventually occur over the poles, although the stratospheric warming event has been downgraded......again

[cold snap]

Summary before ECM

GFS is very flat ,and unlikely to bring cold in with that 12z run

UKMO only goes to 144 could go either way

GEM Will get us to cold .

For newbies you can't discount what GFS wants

[nick sussex]

GEFS mean at +300, need a scanning electron microscope to see anything positive for cold in that. Shall be interesting to see what the ECM and its ensembles show tonight. If something like the GFS and its ensembles then it would seem its a long road to cold and snow indeed? If the  ECM ensembles continue from the 00z theme then it's more intriguing.

 

Bear in mind recent events re the inland runner low over the ne USA, NOAA basically said that the majority of the GEFS were wrong if they showed the same progressive bias as the operational run, remember also that because the GFS failed to model that at all initially it had a big impact over Europe, then even when it first modelled it it was still too flat and progressive.

 

The 144hrs spreads a parcel of much lower heights east, the GEM doesn't and see the impact going forward, whatever happens tonight we'll have to wait till the morning to see if the GFS has picked up the correct signal or has just thrown out a rogue operational run aswell as ensembles.

[SMU]

OK let draw a line in the sand & move on.

 

All posts & types welcomed whatever level.....

 

 

ECM up up & away,.......

 

The pattern that will lead to cold if it lands is the low digging into the azores at 144 like the GEM creating a ridge Moving North.

 

We need that to be as far west as possible......

[jvenge]

Summary before ECMGFS is very flat ,and unlikely to bring cold in with that 12z runUKMO only goes to 144 could go either wayGEM Will get us to cold .For newbies you can't discount what GFS wants

 

Can you clarify on the GFS a bit? Just curious, as I have previously mentioned that the definition of cold here is an interesting one. When you say unlikely to bring "cold", does that mean it will keep temps where they are going to be early to mid week? Average CET? Slightly below average?

Edited January 5, 2014 by jvenge

[Grimsby Snow Lover]

Can you clarify on the GFS a bit? Just curious, as I have previously mentioned that the definition of cold here is an interesting one. When you say unlikely to bring "cold", does that mean it will keep temps where they are going to be early to mid week? Average CET? Slightly below average?

Cold on here usually means 850 temperatures below -5 (the closer to -10 uppers the better) and 2m temperatures at 3 degrees or below with ice days being the holy grail. Edited January 5, 2014 by Grimsby Snow Lover