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Model Output Discussion 1st January 2014-06z onwards.


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06z, if we can shunt the action south then it would be very good for some.  Plenty to be resolved clearly, but all to play for.  For me a colder 06z is in my thoughts, a huge influential controlling Scandi block isn't and neither is mild zonal for next two weeks.   

 

 

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Pivotal period and 'the window'.  Today it remains target point still on the models but is also a day closer.

 

BFTP

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Indeed Shed and had this forum been around then there would have been much despondency, strong PV, big euro high I won’t use the B word, just goes to show what can happen. However things right across the NH were different then, arctic ice extent for one thing, back then sea ice coverage in August was as great as it is now at its greatest winter extent, so the winter ice pack back then must have been vast, I’m sure someone can find some data on that. My own theory and I stress that. Is that there is a correlation between winter sea ice cover and the prevalence of HLB across Greenland and Scandinavia and I seriously doubt if we could get another 47 or 63 unless that changes, leastwise our odds against it are substantially greater now. That of course doesn’t mean we can’t get HLB at all as recent years have shown, just that it’s less likely, certainly less likely to be of that extreme nature.

The 06z is out now but it’s done nothing to change my mind, although post mid range it looks substantially different from the 00z, the central theme remains, zonal, MLB, back to zonal, although there are again some hints at HLB it never really gets off the ground and only has a minimal impact on us.

Couldn't agree more weather eater - things were very different back then, indeed Dec 46 was nowhere near as zonal across Europe, with bitter E'erlies even reaching the UK at times....

 

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Frankly my fear is a Scandi block will set up for the 2nd half of Jan, but probably just to far east, with the North Sea becoming a frontal graveyard. That kind of set up may well bring some interest at times to eastern areas, but Feb is still to month to watch imo. Interesting times ahead, with the worst now soon to be behind us, but still a good deal of patience will be required imo.

Edited by shedhead
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Just noticed that the GEM ensembles have been fixed on Meteociel,so some more eye candy

on offer for ensemble junkies out there.Posted Image 

 

Meteociel - Cartes Ensemble GEM (GENS GEM / CMC ENS)

 

For reference,the GEM ensemble mean at day 10 verifies in 2nd place just in front of the 

GEFS but still well behind ECM.

 

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I'm no fan of the GFS 06z so not too concerned that it is a poor run from the op, control & GEFS. The signal for a fledgling Scandi High at T120 on the GEFS has weakened. About 33% support now compared to 45% from the 0z.

 

The London ECM ensembles: post-14819-0-54821200-1388922266_thumb.g

 

No surprise the GFS 0z run was at the top end of the ECM members. It was on its own ens:  post-14819-0-39136000-1388922437_thumb.g

 

However the split in ECM members from around D6 between colder and less cold members continues to suggest a tipping point at around that time.

 

The 12z runs should help with regard to trend.

Edited by i'm dreaming of...
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Latest GFS temperature anomaly keeps the vast majority of Europe above average for the next 8 days

 

Posted Image

 

Normal temps left expected temps right

 

Posted ImagePosted Image

 

Across the pond in the USA the freezing conditions are set to continue with some parts 5c below normal

 

Posted Image

Edited by Summer Sun
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OK, not really model related, but as it's quiet.....you gotta ask yourself if this is preferable over what we have? 

 

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND352 AM CST SUN JAN 5 2014...LIFE THREATENING WIND CHILLS TODAY THROUGH MONDAY....VERY COLD ARCTIC AIR WILL CONTINUE MOVING INTO NORTH DAKOTATODAY AND WILL REMAIN THROUGH MONDAY. LIFE THREATENING WINDCHILLS TO 65 BELOW ZERO ARE EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH MONDAY.

FROSTBITE CAN OCCUR IN 5 MINUTES OR LESS WITH THESE WIND CHILLS.AVOID OUTDOOR ACTIVITY. 

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I'm still going to stick with my original thoughts from yesterday. That until America lose this cold. Us in the uk are really going to struggle to see a cold outbreak. I think the 06z shows this well. With us seeing the Atlantic firing up again later next weekend. With all the cold over the other side of the pond we are going to keep seeing the jet firing across the Atlantic. Think our best shot maybe feb. But we shall see.

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The ENS trending colder

Posted Image

 

Some cold runs appearing for Berlin but quite a split indicating uncertainty after the 10th and at least heading towards average.

Posted Image

 

Warsaw / Moscow the same story

Posted Image

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The GFS Op virtually unusable in FI except for fun.

 

ECM ENS showing a similar cooling as has already been posted so the chances for some cold to come our way are looking like increasing.

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So if we believe some on here we should discount the ECM, UKMO and the MetO updates as the GFS is king and it's evolution will be the one which is right.Posted Image

no, but it shouldn't be discounted because its not playing ball. Lets see what its 12z output shows...
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It does always seem to be that when North America is freezing especially the NE that we are mild. 

 

I've been looking at various monthly forecasts in the US on Accuweather and it seems the brutal cold is retreating back towards the usual places in Canada in about 7 days time with temperatures returning to more average values across the US. 

 

I'd expect the models to start showing a much colder outlook for Europe in general now over the course of this week and as shown in the US any cold we do get this year in Europe could be brutal.

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OK, not really model related, but as it's quiet.....you gotta ask yourself if this is preferable over what we have? 

 

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND

352 AM CST SUN JAN 5 2014

...LIFE THREATENING WIND CHILLS TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...

.VERY COLD ARCTIC AIR WILL CONTINUE MOVING INTO NORTH DAKOTA

TODAY AND WILL REMAIN THROUGH MONDAY. LIFE THREATENING WIND

CHILLS TO 65 BELOW ZERO ARE EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH MONDAY.

FROSTBITE CAN OCCUR IN 5 MINUTES OR LESS WITH THESE WIND CHILLS.

AVOID OUTDOOR ACTIVITY.

 

I've been fortunate to have experienced close to this when living in Canada (Manitoba) and it is a fantastic experience just to see what it's like. The locals thought I was mad raving on about it!

For a short duration it is amazing as it is so totally alien to anything we ever get in the UK - to be stuck out in it or fall victim is another matter entirely much the same as any extreme weather event - hurricanes, Intense heat etc.

I'm sure there are many on here who would like to get just a much modified 'taste' of such extreme conditions. Posted Image

 

This of course would never ever happen in the UK

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So if we believe some on here we should discount the ECM, UKMO and the MetO updates as the GFS is king and it's evolution will be the one which is right.Posted Image

I always thought it was the one that showed the coldest outlook in the deepest FI possible. :)

Since none of the models show anything much in the way of anything properly cold it's a fairly mute point.

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Indeed... not discounted but not the preferred solution currently.

Ian does that suggest then the UKMO prefer the drier options with high pressure close by, and the uncertainty perhaps more in terms of the placement of any high and how cold any flow will be into the UK?

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Ian does that suggest then the UKMO prefer the drier options with high pressure close by, and the uncertainty perhaps more in terms of the placement of any high and how cold any flow will be into the UK?

 

that would be my reading of their latest outputs

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Indeed Shed and had this forum been around then there would have been much despondency, strong PV, big euro high I won’t use the B word, just goes to show what can happen. However things right across the NH were different then, arctic ice extent for one thing, back then sea ice coverage in August was as great as it is now at its greatest winter extent, so the winter ice pack back then must have been vast, I’m sure someone can find some data on that. My own theory and I stress that. Is that there is a correlation between winter sea ice cover and the prevalence of HLB across Greenland and Scandinavia and I seriously doubt if we could get another 47 or 63 unless that changes, leastwise our odds against it are substantially greater now. That of course doesn’t mean we can’t get HLB at all as recent years have shown, just that it’s less likely, certainly less likely to be of that extreme nature.

The 06z is out now but it’s done nothing to change my mind, although post mid range it looks substantially different from the 00z, the central theme remains, zonal, MLB, back to zonal, although there are again some hints at HLB it never really gets off the ground and only has a minimal impact on us.

I take it you have never looked at the archived charts on meteociel showing the winter 46/47 synoptics.

The two winters are chalk and cheese not just the February although of course we do not know how

this February will play out yet.

Knowing what we do now about the stratosphere troposphere coupling there must have been strong

stratosphere wave breaking and warming in Nov, Dec. and especially Jan of the that winter to produce

the winter synoptics that occured.

If we see the very strong warming that was forecast in the mid stratosphere appear in the days and weeks  

to come then the possibilites for synoptics, cold and snow of winters such as 47,56,82,85,86,87,and 91 would

not be unrealistic. Without such a warming then not a chance although moderate warming and wave

breaking can still deliver cold and snow to the UK.

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Couldn't agree more weather eater - things were very different back then, indeed Dec 46 was nowhere near as zonal across Europe, with bitter E'erlies even reaching the UK at times....

 

 

Yes Europe already cold and that’s another thing not in our favour, although the continent can cool quickly and warmer sea temps could help with a snow fest.

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My purely imby'ism concern right now is how wet is it going to be in the south this week.  Lighter winds are all very well, but not if what looks like a potentially troublesome trough gets stuck over or close to the English Channel as a result...this really isn't the kind of setup I want to see come midweek... 

 

Posted Image

Edited by shedhead
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I take it you have never looked at the archived charts on meteociel showing the winter 46/47 synoptics.

The two winters are chalk and cheese not just the February although of course we do not know how

this February will play out yet.

Knowing what we do now about the stratosphere troposphere coupling there must have been strong

stratosphere wave breaking and warming in Nov, Dec. and especially Jan of the that winter to produce

the winter synoptics that occured.

If we see the very strong warming that was forecast in the mid stratosphere appear in the days and weeks  

to come then the possibilites for synoptics, cold and snow of winters such as 47,56,82,85,86,87,and 91 would

not be unrealistic. Without such a warming then not a chance although moderate warming and wave

breaking can still deliver cold and snow to the UK.

I have looked and yes the winters are chalk and cheese but for the reasons I gave and the fact that i was not just talking about this winter I stand by what i said, if we see no winter sea ice recovery back to the levels they were in the 40s 50s 60s we are far less likely to see another 47 or 63 spell. now I may be wrong and boy would I be happy to be so but that's my opinion.

 

On a model note I confess to being pleased with the prognosis from IF my optimism for a cold spell has just gone up a notch.

Edited by weather eater
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My purely imby'ism concern right now is how wet is it going to be in the south this week.  Lighter winds are all very well, but not if what looks like a potentially troublesome trough gets stuck over or close to the English Channel as a result...this really isn't the kind of setup I want to see come midweek... 

 

 

 

 

yes all 3 main models suggest what forecasters call a confluent upper trough in about the same place on all 3. From these, surface features can run just ahead of it giving a fair amount of rain, so Met will certainly be watching this probability and their Fax charts show this type of pattern at the surface.

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