Model Output Discussion 1st January 2014-06z onwards.

[The Northern Ramper]

Best news today is the MOGREPS increasingly cold signal and there continues to be plenty of cold and wintry solutions sprinkled throughout the GEFS 12z perturbations, some real corkers here and the 12z mean is still trending colder, especially later in the run. The way I currently see it, we are heading towards either a cold and unsettled outlook with lows sliding down from the north west with trough disruption occuring and the jet digging well south or we will see height rises to the east / north east with a scandi high and increasingly cold continental flow which would bring lots of sharp frosts and a growing chance of snow..I think there is growing evidence supporting a colder outlook with snow potential.

Frosty you have been posting/chasing these charts since November, how many of these have verified 1-2%?

[Ali1977]

heights into Greenland at 264 ish and we're in business!!!

We're not in business !!!!!!!!!

Poor pub run, back into more storms and westerlies, relentless!!

Edited January 4, 2014 by Ali1977

[draztik]

heights into Greenland at 264 ish and we're in business!!!

We're not in business !!!!!!!!!

Poor pub run, back into more storms and westerlies, relentless!!

lol, nice edit

Yep, we're back on the zonal express with this run! Pretty dire all round,

 

Another 'black' storm wanting to invade us yet again, into FI

Edited January 4, 2014 by draztik

[terrier]

Well the 18z run is horrible. Sorry can't post charts as on mobile. But after a quieter spell next week. We are then back into a westerly flow with yet more heavy rain and storms. Think the cold in the states this winter is going to kill any chance of winter in the uk. With a strong jet stream been powered straight across the Atlantic.

[cold snap]

ECM short ens not like last nights .infact pretty average .

And a 18z GFS that wants to bring the vortex back to life ,if this happens as the 18z ,cold winter weather going to become difficult to find in January .

Needless to say ,tick,tick jan...feb...ma

Edited January 4, 2014 by cold snap

[Mucka]

lol, nice edit

Yep, we're back on the zonal express with this run! Pretty dire all round,

 

Another 'black' storm wanting to invade us yet again, into FI

 

Not worth the price of electricity used to compute it though.

We need to focus on hi res for the moment I think given that's where we have our window of opportunity.

In that respect this run ws another step in the right direction with the ridge slightly further West and pressure falling away to the South.

[legritter]

Well a good pub run for eventuall zonal,but it will all change again tomorrow no doubt .still think something is out there ,patience required [HURRY UP PLEASE ]

[nick sussex]

More clueless nonsense from the GFS lower resolution.I could stick up the four different GFS runs for today in the lower resolution, take your pick as to what you fancy.

 

You can have zonal, blocking, etc etc just pick a synoptic I'm sure the GFS will do its best to deliver.Seriously I hope people aren't reaching for the Prozac because of the GFS lower resolution.

[cold snap]

Please atmosphere ,do something about the deep cold in the states .

With this constantly remaining intact ,going to be difficult to grind out any pattern ,we are just getting there left over weather ,that's completely modified

Edited January 4, 2014 by cold snap

[karyo]

I see nothing positive in the output! The cold plunge in Scandinavia looks very temporary as the jet stream will easily push it eastwards.  

 

Karyo

[draztik]

Not worth the price of electricity used to compute it though.

We need to focus on hi res for the moment I think given that's where we have our window of opportunity.

In that respect this run ws another step in the right direction with the ridge slightly further West and pressure falling away to the South.

 

Hmm, must admit, if it took any step it was tentative at best...

Mucka, I'd like cold just as much as you. But I'm still not on board! Lets see some continuity between the models. I also don't like where the ext ecm ens are headed... coupled with the teleconnections still not in my view favourable for cold at present.

 

 

Heres the ECM op from earlier, and the GFS 18z... both showing 6-10 day heights.... I mean, seriously!!! What gives. Until we see some mergence how can anyone get excited.

[Chris K]

That's ok. The GFS can show more wet and windy weather all it likes that far into FI, because that means it is unlikely to verify at that range right? 

 

I know it is a different set up, but back in December we had the runs showing a sceuro high stuck right from T+0 to T+384....why can't this change within a few days like it did back then? I didn't think that just because our prevailing weather is from the W/SW, meant the models were more reliable for it? Or am I wrong?

 

I do agree though - until something reduces that temperature contrast over the States, a powerful Jet Stream isn't going to be helpful. However as others have stated, the trend is there for potential weakening and buckling of the flow.

 

I know people will be sick of hearing this word now, but I think we need to be 'patient' and see what the models show in a weeks times....and also prevent ourselves doing this in the meantime...

 

 

If we are nowhere clearer/better off then, I hold no responsibility for broken computer equipment.

Edited January 4, 2014 by Chris K

[Jason T]

Frosty you have been posting/chasing these charts since November, how many of these have verified 1-2%?

 

I believe Frosty and some other Coldie hunters have kept a positive belief within the thread and  posted possibilities, We have had a few weeks of continued Atlantic onslaught and Mildish temps, Which hopefully now is on its final run for the time being. Colder signals are now present in output and MOGREPS is a much favoured system. Your stats of 1-2% could very well be 100% 5-10 days time from now,It is only the 4th Jan after all.

Edited January 4, 2014 by Jason T

[bluearmy]

Hmm, must admit, if it took any step it was tentative at best...

Mucka, I'd like cold just as much as you. But I'm still not on board! Lets see some continuity between the models. I also don't like where the ext ecm ens are headed... coupled with the teleconnections still not in my view favourable for cold at present.

 

 

Heres the ECM op from earlier, and the GFS 18z... both showing 6-10 day heights.... I mean, seriously!!! What gives. Until we see some mergence how can anyone get excited.

doesn't really matter but I bet you a tenner that ECM 5 day average is closer to reality than the 18 z gfs op!

[Mucka]

Hmm, must admit, if it took any step it was tentative at best...

Mucka, I'd like cold just as much as you. But I'm still not on board! Lets see some continuity between the models. I also don't like where the ext ecm ens are headed... coupled with the teleconnections still not in my view favourable for cold at present.

 

 

Heres the ECM op from earlier, and the GFS 18z... both showing 6-10 day heights.... I mean, seriously!!! What gives. Until we see some mergence how can anyone get excited.

 

Did I sound excited? 

 

I didn't say it would be cold, I don't know, could go either way I reckon.

All I said was that FI is a waste of time because it is totally dependant on what happens much sooner and I don't think that has been resolved yet.

 

When I say a step in the right direction I mean it is closer to what we want to see than the previous ouput, that could be just natural variation or it could be a trend, only time will tell on that.

 

Comparison charts GFS 06z/12z/18z (note the stronger ridge and how it slightly further West each run)

 

 

And check the pressure to the South.

 

 

 

As I say ridge slightly further West and pressure lower to our South - that's a trend we want to see develop.

[draztik]

doesn't really matter but I bet you a tenner that ECM 5 day average is closer to reality than the 18 z gfs op!

 

The way the ECM has been behaving, I accept

But seriously, we have to temper our expectations. Really frustrates me when the GFS is routinely panned.

As ever, its over to the morning runs now. More fun & games.

[draztik]

Mucka, you always sound excited

I see your charts, and appreciate the point you're making. I just have this impression that because the ECM has shown us a bright spark, the forum has gone into overload. And any posts to the contrary, are hounded!

 

Anyway, like I said, hopefully tomo can bring us more light.

[karlos1983]

Not posted for a while, been taking a back seat, delving into the strat thread also, nowhere near being able to comment in there, but very interesting all the same.

I think with the jet forecasted to weaken in speed somewhat in the next week or so, it could well be when we start to see some more positive outlooks for cold creeping in the models.

Still way to early to be writing winter off IMO, especially considering how far winter stretched last year.

Much prefer cold in late jan/Feb myself, always more fruitful. With the sea temps be above average surrounding the uk, if we can get an easterly or North easterly, surely great ingredients for big showers!

Edited January 4, 2014 by karlos1983

[Mucka]

Mucka, you always sound excited

I see your charts, and appreciate the point you're making. I just have this impression that because the ECM has shown us a bright spark, the forum has gone into overload. And any posts to the contrary, are hounded!

 

Anyway, like I said, hopefully tomo can bring us more light.

 

I'm not sure why you feel GFS is being panned or that you are being hounded from what I posted?

I really don't think people are over excited either, expectations seem pretty well in check for the most part and people can't be blamed for gleaning any positives and taking what joy they can from any favourable output given the winter we have had. Anyway people seem more than happy to call infinite zonal at the first opportunity based on much flimsier evidence - probably just frustration.

Sure I am looking for positives rather than negatives but I am not calling something that isn't there and don't forget the MetO are talking of the possibility of colder conditions arriving and Ian has said there are now signs in the longer range output of blocking that wasn't there before. 

 

I think the output is going to bounce around for the next couple of days and we can but hope for some cold weather - nothing to terrible about that.

 

ECM 12z ensembles are a bit disappointing but let's not throw in the towel just yet.

 

[tight isobar]

In realism, I don't think the 00runsz will evaluate things.However I do beleive the nxt 24/48 hrs will.and to add imo whether bias or otherwise, that the convenience will be in favour of the colder favour.with NE variables more influencing than NW consider....

[nick sussex]

Mucka, you always sound excited

I see your charts, and appreciate the point you're making. I just have this impression that because the ECM has shown us a bright spark, the forum has gone into overload. And any posts to the contrary, are hounded!

 

Anyway, like I said, hopefully tomo can bring us more light.

The ECM hasn't avoided criticism over the winter so far, I've trashed it aswell! I am consistent though with my disdain for the GFS lower resolution,and have been for years.

 

The problem is that with four runs a day you're always likely to have some huge swings, and if any sort of blocking is shown to the east or ne its likely to go completely off the rails.

 

In terms of recent performance especially upstream the ECM has done very well and recovered its reputation somewhat, the inland runner low which was quite a complex affair was modelled very well by it whilst the GFS was hopeless. So its back in my good books for the timebeing!

 

We'll see how things play out over the coming days, should be interesting.

[weather eater]

More clueless nonsense from the GFS lower resolution.I could stick up the four different GFS runs for today in the lower resolution, take your pick as to what you fancy.

 

You can have zonal, blocking, etc etc just pick a synoptic I'm sure the GFS will do its best to deliver.Seriously I hope people aren't reaching for the Prozac because of the GFS lower resolution.

Leaving aside the ensembles, I think I’ve said what I wanted about them and leaving aside the GFS as a model in isolation, the clear trend as it appears to me at the moment, derived at from viewing the operational runs of the models over the last few days, that’s across the main three models (ECM, GFS, UKMO) or main two post 144hrs is, zonal though less vigorous than of late for a few days yet, then possible MLB of some sort, certainly some kind of break from all out zonal for a short while, then the Atlantic will come back in. There have been of course other ideas floated by various platforms not to mention other people, but that looks to me the most likely evolution at this point of time.

[cooling climate]

I for one would put no more faith in the ECM ens than any other model or forecasts.

A downward trend appeared a couple of weeks or so back and that fizzled out to

nothing.

Judging by the stratosphere forecasts from the GFS it has also all but fizzled out to

nothing along with my expectations for cold for later this month. Talk about wind ups

to offer something of a major change in the pipeline  during such a winter we are

having and then to back track like it has.

It will be worth giving this another 24 hours and seeing what the ECM strat forecasts

are tomorrow but I have a growing feeling this is a red herring.

The Mogreps that have started to jump ship to a colder pattern may have done so

when the ship has already sailed.I do not expect to see much in the way of excitment

in the tomorrow although of course I hope I am wrong.

[Richie V]

Hi Nick, do you think we would see awful flip flopping in later timeframes as per gfs if the ecm ran 4 times per day?

The ECM hasn't avoided criticism over the winter so far, I've trashed it aswell! I am consistent though with my disdain for the GFS lower resolution,and have been for years.The problem is that with four runs a day you're always likely to have some huge swings, and if any sort of blocking is shown to the east or ne its likely to go completely off the rails.In terms of recent performance especially upstream the ECM has done very well and recovered its reputation somewhat, the inland runner low which was quite a complex affair was modelled very well by it whilst the GFS was hopeless. So its back in my good books for the timebeing!We'll see how things play out over the coming days, should be interesting.

Edited January 5, 2014 by Richie V

[weather eater]

Hi Nick, do you think we would see awful flip flopping in later timeframes as per gfs if the ecm ran 4 times per day?

I'm sure Nick will say something when he's available, but I'm sure the answer will be yes, especially if it went as far out as the GFS, wisely the programmers restricted it to 240hrs and that’s still stretching it IMO.