Model Output Discussion 1st January 2014-06z onwards.

[Polar Maritime]

I don’t think there is any doubt the models are indicating a pattern change of sorts, I don’t think anyone can dispute that, the question is are the models indicating a pattern change to much colder synoptics of the sort most of us are hoping for and the answer to that at the moment I’m afraid is, no they are not. Now nobody is saying that there is no chance for that to change or that there are no indicators for that kind of change whatsoever, but I really can’t see the point in dressing up what remain a pretty poor outlook for a major pattern change, you can’t conjure it up by being enthusiastic for it to happen. The pattern change that looks the most likely at this point in time is still largely zonal, but less vigorous than of late with some chance of high pressure having a greater influence on our weather than it has been of late, I would say day 7 plus, depending on which model run you have the most faith in, if blocking is to occur then some sort of MLB rather than HLB seems to be the more likely to me at this time.

 

Im not, and have not "dressed" anything up, or stated a "major" pattern change so please do not dress my post's up and miss-quote them.

 

I have only pointed out the strong signals for colder more wintry weather by the METO for the last third of the month. which the models also have hinted.

 

I agree the models are showing signs of a change toward the end of next week, with less vigorous storm systems spinning  off the Atlantic with a weakening Jet.. It's a start.

Edited January 4, 2014 by Polar Maritime

[wolvesfan]

There's your answer shedhead. It's pretty obvious the pattern is changing to be fair. It's just we don't know to what pattern yet.

I'm a cold lover and it does pain me to say,but with the data we have available a slightly less intense zonal does look the form horse. Data at circa 15 days can't be taken serious.

[shedhead]

There's your answer shedhead. It's pretty obvious the pattern is changing to be fair. It's just we don't know to what pattern yet.

 

Polar Maritime

Posted Today, 08:55

I agree Winter79, and how some posters can not see a pattern change towards the end of the month is beyond me. 

 

 

I think that is the main point steelmark, which I why I aked PM to quantify/clarify his post.  There's no real point in asking why people can't see a pattern change coming later this month, without providing some sort of explanation/rationale to back it up...preferable with charts.  That type of post is one that definately confuses new members and experienced ones alike imo.

Edited January 4, 2014 by shedhead

[TEITS]

Im not, and have not dressed anything up. Only pointed out the strong signals for colder more wintry weather by the METO for the last third of the month.

 

I agree the models are showing signs of a change toward the end of next week, with less vigorous storm systems spinning  off the Atlantic with a weakening Jet.. It's a start.

Worth mentioning that the Met O spotted the Dec 09 cold spell weeks in advance even when it was not apparent in the model output.

 

I have not posted much recently because im clueless what the outlook will be. You only have to look at the past 3 ECM runs to see big differences in the +168 to +240 range. I could make a case that mild, zonal is the likely outlook but I could also say the same for a cold E,ly. Its also worth adding that E,lys are extremely fickle because they can simply disappear from the model output even at +96 but can also reappear quiet suddenly, Dec 2005 springs to mind.

 

For the time being im going to quietly follow the models and continue to read the updates from the experts at the Met O. If they believe a colder spell of weather is on its way in 15 days time then thats good enough for me.

[SLEETY]

 

 

 

Quote shedhed" Perhaps you could explain how you see the pattern change coming about PM?"

 

An emerging number of MOGREPS members are starting to show much colder solutions by end of the trend period (15d). This hadn't been the case recently.

well if the pro's at the Met can see a possible colder solution coming with all the extra tools they have,then maybe the question to ask is why do you think that no pattern change is likely?

Edited January 4, 2014 by Paul

[UV-RAY]

Polar Maritime

Posted Today, 08:55

I agree Winter79, and how some posters can not see a pattern change towards the end of the month is beyond me. 

 

 

I think that is the main point steelmark, which I why I aked PM to quantify/clarify his post.  There's no real point in asking why people can't see a pattern change coming later this month, without providing some sort of explanation/rationale to back it up...preferable with charts.  That type of post is one that definately confuses new members and experienced ones alike imo.

All very well shed, but like the posts above say if the experts see a change to much colder  weather then I think I'll take their  word over anyone else's on here. I know it's the model thread and we can only discuss what's being shown, which as you state is correct.

Edited January 4, 2014 by Sceptical Inquirer

[weather eater]

Im not, and have not dressed anything up. Only pointed out the strong signals for colder more wintry weather by the METO for the last third of the month.

 

I agree the models are showing signs of a change toward the end of next week, with less vigorous storm systems spinning  off the Atlantic with a weakening Jet.. It's a start.

I wasn’t referring to you in particular it was more of a general comment so apologies if you thought I was. As for the METO comments my view is that welcome as these are, including IFs just now, I would dispute that the METO are suggesting is that there is a strong signal for something much colder not far away, only that there are at least some pointers towards that evolution. My guess I hope he doesn’t mind, is that if you ask IF he would be reluctant to suggest anything different to that.

 

On this subject and pinched from the BBC

 

"Are there any signs of the jet stream that has caused this latest bout of severe weather slowing down? Channel 4 weatherman Liam Duttonblogs to say there has been hints it will "weaken and meander" towards the middle of the month. "This would result in the weather turning more settled, with fewer storms and a better chance of high pressure building, with lighter winds and less rain," he writes"

Edited January 4, 2014 by weather eater

[TEITS]

 

 

 

well if the pro's at the Met can see a possible colder solution coming with all the extra tools they have,then maybe the question to ask is why do you think that no pattern change is likely,something you like to keep banging on about in nearly every post you make.

 

I shall add to this by saying that I would be very surprised if we didn't see a pattern change very soon. Our climate is notorious for being changeable and no spell of weather lasts for very long whether this is stormy, cold or dry and settled. We have had such a stormy, wet period I would be amazed if this continued for the remainder of Jan.

[bluearmy]

I suspect he'll soon be regretting his post! I would still love to know the resolution of mogreps-15 ???

[shedhead]

All very well shed, but like the posts above say if the experts see a change to much colder  weather then I think I'll take their  word over anyone else's on here. I know it's the model thread and we can only discuss what's being shown, which as you state is correct.

 

 

A pattern change therefore IS coming, but at this stage no one (including the MO) know exactly where we are heading post mid month, as I'm sure Ian F would confirm despite his very encouraging recent post re Mogreps.

 

Let's just wait and see what the next few days bring, but I still see no reason not to view the 2nd half of winter in a much more positive light for cold. 

Edited January 4, 2014 by Paul

[Cumulonimbus Tower]

06 gfs looks to be running out of puff as it crosses the atlantic compared to the 00z. Whilst it's obviously a depressing morning for coldies, I still don't think this has run it's full course yet. Not if the GFS is still chopping and changing its mind at such short timescales and some of the lesser models (And bigger models to a lesser degree) still fancy a chance. Watch this space

 

I strongly concur with what TEITS says about fickle Easterlies too. Over the last eight years or so there seems to be a recurring theme, of them vanishing overnight to re-appear a couple of runs later. 

Edited January 4, 2014 by Cumulonimbus Tower

[kumquat]

Morning!

 

This morning's models showing that a second bite of the cherry may be required in my book. Not to say that the cherry ain't there. It's just that the first bite may be tainted.

 

GFS 0z @240 hrs:

 

 

 

00Z ECM @ 240 hrs showing the same kind of potential for height rises up north and slider / trigger low.

 

 

Perhaps something can start materialising out at Jan 14th onwards but not before then on current output, IMO.

Edited January 4, 2014 by kumquat

[MR EXTREMES]

 

 

 

well if the pro's at the Met can see a possible colder solution coming with all the extra tools they have,then maybe the question to ask is why do you think that no pattern change is likely,something you like to keep banging on about in nearly every post you make.

 

to be honest ian f is only going on what the ukmo has been seeing the likely hood is today or tomorrow we will see a climb down for high latitude blocking,the strat and the mjo reflect why mid lat blocking could be the final outcome although id be inclined to say the models are very much pointing towards a continuation of a more relaxed but still mobile alantic.

 

so for those hoping for snowfall may well may only be reserved for northern England and Scotland in the coming days right out into fi.

 

im still inclined to right of the rest of winter the azores heights have be dominant for months going back into summer very much a early mid 2000s winter set up.

 

there is very little left now to build on the vortex made its presents felt back in novemeber December its very powerful this year and is being pushed around in to unfavourable areas mostly around Greenland.

 

I expect this to continue but am very much inclined to say there will be a relaxation of the zonal onslaught although still unsettled but perhaps mid latitude block around or over the uk meaning in this set up it will remain around average with night frost but deep cold looks to be heading into Russia.

 

heres the overall top four models up until t144

gfs 6z

ecm

ukmo

gem

its very much as you were situation!

im afraid the strat was very exciting a few days ago its now considered a none runner to be honest.

 

it could well turn out that as awful as the gfs model has been it could well be dealing with this better than gem ukmo and ecm but all 3 other than the gfs all show a weak surface ridge close to Iceland although very weak signal,

perhaps like most of us in here the models to except the gfs have jumped on the bandwagon only to realise its no where near as clear cut.

 

it will be intresting to see which model will turn out the closest come the end of next week.

Edited January 4, 2014 by emotional rollercoaster

[Newberryone]

I think it's fair to say while a pattern change is now anticipated for the latter stages of next week, I fail to see anything positive from a cold perspective. I only hope what's modelled here will not verify or at least any ridging from the azores will be of a transient nature. While I appreciate the azores can often eventually lead to a cold solution depending on how far north it extends but we know only too well from previous experience that more than not it fails to do this and so scuppers any real chance of a favourable pattern change.

[legritter]

06 gfs looks to be running out of puff as it crosses the atlantic compared to the 00z. Whilst it's obviously a depressing morning for coldies, I still don't think this has run it's full course yet. Not if the GFS is still chopping and changing its mind at such short timescales and some of the lesser models (And bigger models to a lesser degree) still fancy a chance. Watch this space

Yes its a case of watch this Space ,if there is a cold spell out there mid month the models will take a while to show us .mid month is 11 days away gang so expect ups and downs like last nights ECM and of course this mornings ,keep an eye on met office further outlook .they wont commit untill definate signs are within their radar and when it is they will im sure Tell us all .

[stratty]

An emerging number of MOGREPS members are starting to show much colder solutions by end of the trend period (15d). This hadn't been the case recently.

 

Thanks for update Ian, are you allowed to tell us/show us what kind of solutions you are alluding to please? cheers

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

06Z is hideous for cold! Its actually worse than 0z.

 

And that took some beating..

Still got eh prayer amtt out that Mogreps has spotted a pattern change.A pattern change that needs to encompass the never ending Euro high getting a life somewhere else!!

[Cheshire Freeze]

to be honest ian f is only going on what the ukmo has been seeing the likely hood is today or tomorrow we will see a climb down for high latitude blocking,the strat and the mjo reflect why mid lat blocking could be the final outcome although id be inclined to say the models are very much pointing towards a continuation of a more relaxed but still mobile alantic.

 

so for those hoping for snowfall may well may only be reserved for northern England and Scotland in the coming days right out into fi.

 

im still inclined to right of the rest of winter the azores heights have be dominant for months going back into summer very much a early mid 2000s winter set up.

 

there is very little left now to build on the vortex made its presents felt back in novemeber December its very powerful this year and is being pushed around in to unfavourable areas mostly around Greenland.

 

I expect this to continue but am very much inclined to say there will be a relaxation of the zonal onslaught although still unsettled but perhaps mid latitude block around or over the uk meaning in this set up it will remain around average with night frost but deep cold looks to be heading into Russia.

 

heres the overall top four models up until t144

gfs 6z

ecm

ukmo

gem

its very much as you were situation!

im afraid the strat was very exciting a few days ago its now considered a none runner to be honest.

 

 

Aahhh the good old 'it's been like this for x amount of weeks so it'll carry on like this for eternity' forecasting method.

 

Think I'll stick with the pros at the Metoffice, thanks.

 

You never know, perhaps now Christmas is over, the vortex will stop making its 'presents' felt.

[stewfox]

An emerging number of MOGREPS members are starting to show much colder solutions by end of the trend period (15d). This hadn't been the case recently.

 

Thanks as always we await the next update with baited breath.

 

Lets hope we can hold back this Atlantic train back recent F1 promise has tended to let us down some what.

Edited January 4, 2014 by stewfox

[Polar Maritime]

Morning!

 

This morning's models showing that a second bite of the cherry may be required in my book. Not to say that the cherry ain't there. It's just that the first bite may be tainted.

 

 

Perhaps something can start materialising out at Jan 14th onwards but not before then on current output, IMO.

 

Seem's in line for Chino's 2nd bite from the stratt later in the Month, which he mentioned yesterday.

Edited January 4, 2014 by Polar Maritime

[weather eater]

Well the 06z is now out and its very in line with my earlier post, Atlantic running out of steam, followed by some hints of MLB, unfortunately this never really takes hold and we see the Atlantic firing up again, sort of out of the frying pan into the fire. However, low res output should always be taken with a pinch of salt so the prognosis remains, less vigorous Atlantic and a chance of MLB so hopefully drying out and more settled into the mid range.

[kumquat]

The problem with the Euro high may be eradicated as and when low heights get interjected around the 240 hrs period. It's not an end game scenario by any means while there is a patch of sub 552 heights looking to dig under the Iberian peninsula and with incoming reinforcements from the West

[bluearmy]

just to add that anecdotally, mogreps always seemed late to the party when cold was afoot. thats my recollection over past couple winters since ian has been around on here and good enough to share such info with us.  also, we do have a 'cold' extended ecm ens set this morning, following on from a chilly set last night. just a shame that currently, ncep and gem ens are not seeing the same things. there is time for change (in either direction of course).  and re the strat - yes, the stellar runs showing a split are no longer present but we will be left with a much smaller vortex and one which does not contain the same depth of widespread cold throughout. the influence of the strat vortex will not be the same as it has been thus far.

[phil nw.]

Just looking at things overall.I think it 's reasonable to expect some easing of the Atlantic ferocity later next week as some heights look like developing over the continent.

This may build into a meaningful block later on and that maybe is what some of the Met office ens further out are showing.

A lot depends on where any block sits but it seems some sort of continental cold shows up in those colder ens members.

 

It's all very far way for now though and for the sake of clarity and being on topic we should continue to focus our discussions on the modeling we can view for ourselves for commenting on.

 

One other thing a few posts are getting grumpy again and having a dig at others,please stop this.

I would like a change as much as anyone but let's note what the current outputs show and avoid falling out with each other over it.

[nick sussex]

After the ECM held an easterly party last night its the clean up today with bottles and debris lying all over the place!

 

Regardless of the morning climbdown by the operational run there is a trend for temperatures to fall looking at the De Bilt ensembles, the wind directions are all over the place.

 

http://www.weerplaza.nl/15daagseverwachting/?r=midden&type=eps_pluim

 

The robust signal for the continued rinse and repeat monsoon is now weakening but the outlook is messy if you're trying to pin some detail down. The PV still looks trouble some although not as strong, generally you can only work with so much given the PV location so there are things that you definitely know you wont see within the medium term, so Greenland block is out, northerly toppler out, upstream there is some uncertainty as to the depth and amplitude of troughing in the west/central USA as the pattern changes over there; which will therefore impact the amplitude of the jet coming out of the eastern USA.

 

In terms of whats to be expected over the UK well several options, troughing digging se with pressure still high to the ne, I'd still keep the possibility of an easterly within ten days, theres still a cluster of ECM solutions that bring this in.

 

Overall I think the zonal conditions that we've seen for weeks are on the way out, I think its look east or ne going forward, some trough disruption likely close to the UK and a possible battle ground scenario setting up before the PV finally edges sufficiently away.

 

With the easterly still refusing to disappear off the radar within the ten day period, just as the easterly disappeared quickly it could just as easily return, the margins remain very small either way.