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Model Output Discussion 1st January 2014-06z onwards.


phil nw.

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Posted
  • Location: Exeter, Devon
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunderstorms
  • Location: Exeter, Devon

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?ext=1&x=188&y=177 (South-West England)

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?ext=1&x=310&y=139 (South-East England)

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?ext=1&x=264&y=2 (Northern England)

 

The 12z GEFS is out and there are a few very cold runs on here. As well as those coldest runs, there are others which have very good synoptic patterns that would potentially result in cold weather for the British Isles. There is significant spead on the ensembles, but little of what I would describe as mild.

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Posted
  • Location: West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme cold & snow
  • Location: West Sussex

Those westerlies could be pretty cold especially the further north you are. Plenty snow above 300m I think.

Looks like only rain even over the Scottish Higlands

Posted Image

 

2M temps are way too mild for snow as well

Posted Image

Not even -4 uppers

Posted Image

Sorry..Posted Image

Edited by Purga
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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Its a very straight forward scenario to play out - the low goes into Central Canada we have a chance- as ridging will be the thing getting it there-

 

If the low becomes a fish storm & drops off the coast early A LA GFS- then its game over.

 

 

A straight forward scenario- but very very difficult to model-

The jet variance is just 2/300 miles difference in track- especially when it comes to the SW tip of Greenland - but that small difference effects the entire pattern for the following 10-15 days.

 

The bottom line is theres only 1 solution- the models haven't agreed which one it is yet.

 

Glad to see the GEM bucking the trend tonight- we could end up at a typical stalemate of GEM + ECM V UKMO / GFS.  Pick the bones out of that one,  whatever the case Im sure most people including the mildies are sick & tired of the wind & rain & would be glad of a bit of seasonal weather-

 

Eyes down for the ECM.,

S

Thank God we've got you then, Steve...Posted Image

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Posted
  • Location: West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme cold & snow
  • Location: West Sussex

Will we get a more blocked ECM than GFS tonight? There were quite a few ENS members going or this earlier so fingers crossed.

 

Posted Image

Posted Image

 

So far no change to speak of but NOT looking too good.

Edited by Purga
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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester

JMA looking very "ridgy" Posted Image

 

Posted Image

 

Edit.

Killed by the Euro high

Edited by Mucka
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http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014010112/gfsnh-0-144.png?12 GFS

 

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014010112/ECH1-144.GIF?01-0 ECM

 

 

Night & day difference. The UKMO is in the middle but closer to the ECM.-

 

S

 

 

*** The other important thing that's developed over the last 24 hours is important & will be good news if we get the ridge is the breakaway high pressure from the Kumchatka ridge that slides over the pole to Northern Russia- initially prognosis was the high to wain into the US, that wedge shown here on the JMA 156

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/jma/runs/2014010112/JN156-21.GIF?01-12

Is starting to push the vortex lobe back west with its associated -30c AIR!!S 

Edited by Steve Murr
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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

GFS miles away from ECM at t168

 

Posted Image

 

GFS to compare

 

Posted Image

 

Gradually becoming more settled from the SW giving longer breaks from any rain

 

Posted ImagePosted Image

Edited by Summer Sun
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http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014010112/ECH1-192.GIF?01-0

 

Very very good angle of ridging ( remember 40 degrees to the east is the max in my book before the pattern flattens off)

 

Atlantic low looks to be forcing around 20 degrees-

 

Please see attached to see where the angle comes from.

 

post-1235-0-46641400-1388602161_thumb.jp

 

S

Edited by Steve Murr
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Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL

Hopefully WAA links with the arctic high and we're in business...

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Posted
  • Location: Mid Welsh/English Border
  • Weather Preferences: Snow! Exciting weather!
  • Location: Mid Welsh/English Border

ECM reminiscent of the Met Office outlook for this month :)  Good signs!Posted Image

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

t216 see's high pressure returning a long time since that happened! providing there is no fog it would be sunny and crisp with frost overnight

 

Posted ImagePosted Image

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

I think I found where our winter is hiding, check these out from the GEFS 12z perturbations..P4 is sensationalPosted Image...P17 tooPosted Image ..also note how the mean turns colder towards the end, especially further north with a significant snow risk along with ice and widespread frost and if something similar to these perturbations verifies, it will be snow fest uk by mid month...very encouraging models today from a cold perspective and a wintry met office update in the mid / longer range...Ecm 12z op reinforces this trend. .Posted Image

post-4783-0-52527400-1388601016_thumb.pn

post-4783-0-30239300-1388601028_thumb.pn

post-4783-0-99498800-1388601037_thumb.pn

post-4783-0-82320800-1388601048_thumb.pn

post-4783-0-63894000-1388601061_thumb.pn

post-4783-0-14494700-1388601141_thumb.pn

post-4783-0-69236400-1388601151_thumb.pn

post-4783-0-57688000-1388601160_thumb.pn

post-4783-0-82638600-1388601172_thumb.pn

post-4783-0-23839200-1388601180_thumb.pn

post-4783-0-68903200-1388601195_thumb.pn

post-4783-0-67777200-1388601205_thumb.pn

post-4783-0-94257300-1388601212_thumb.pn

post-4783-0-13632100-1388601230_thumb.pn

post-4783-0-16870400-1388601237_thumb.pn

post-4783-0-59353500-1388601254_thumb.pn

post-4783-0-57423600-1388601264_thumb.pn

post-4783-0-28922600-1388601275_thumb.pn

post-4783-0-47447600-1388601289_thumb.pn

post-4783-0-35819000-1388601300_thumb.pn

Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: Stanwell(south side of Heathrow Ap)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, squally fronts, snow, frost, very mild if no snow or frost
  • Location: Stanwell(south side of Heathrow Ap)

t216 see's high pressure returning a long time since that happened! providing there is no fog it would be sunny and crisp with frost overnight

 

Posted ImagePosted Image

You've found a sunny day during a UK winter..now that is amazing.. 

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

ECM ends settled with the UK finally getting a long overdue break from the rain and a chance to dry out!

 

Posted ImagePosted Image

 

Colder air moving closer to the NW as well, again providing there is no fog it would be sunny and crisp with frost overnight

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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl

ECM ends settled with the UK finally getting a long overdue break from the rain and a chance to dry out!

 

Posted ImagePosted Image

 

Colder air moving closer to the NW as well, again providing there is no fog it would be sunny and crisp with frost overnight

 

240 chart, but that bitter air in the Atlantic seems an error? no expert but odd looking chart to our west, at least that's what it shows on meteociel

Edited by IrememberAtlantic252
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Posted
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch

ECM ends settled with the UK finally getting a long overdue break from the rain and a chance to dry out!

 

Posted ImagePosted Image

 

Colder air moving closer to the NW as well, again providing there is no fog it would be sunny and crisp with frost overnight

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?mode=2&ech=6

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?mode=2&ech=204

i.e  reg your above  post  the  only one dry spot i can see  8  Jan as  dry Gavin and after  that  its  back constant  bad  weather  to hit  the  uk

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Posted
  • Location: West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme cold & snow
  • Location: West Sussex

NAEFS shows an average to mild outlook for mid Jan and probably unsettled and wet as well

Posted Image

Posted Image

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Posted
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Gales, frost, fog & snow
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol

NAEFS shows an average to mild outlook for mid Jan and probably unsettled and wet as well

Posted Image

Posted Image

Be interesting to see if there are any changes on the 12z data later though.
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