Model Output Discussion 1st January 2014-06z onwards.

[legritter]

Hang on posters the roller coaster starts tonight .very pleased with tonights runs and will be even more so if tomorrows keeps going in the same direction .But alas caution is needed if its out there expect swings from day today but wait to see what is indicated over say two runs .also met office daily updates for those clues in the charts we dont get to see .perhaps mother nature as just been waiting for our kneck of the woods .but good signs without a doubt . WHERE,SFrosty with those STellas .

[UV-RAY]

Well the GFS zonal to cooler zonal, the ECM much better but I have little faith with it when it comes to modelling these kinds of blocking synoptics, I can’t actually think of a time when its outperformed the GFS with this type of evolution, anything else almost every time, but not this sort of blocking.

Disagree, the ECM is much better at handling blocks to our East than the GFS and I'm sure the stats will back this up.

[PolarWarsaw]

Better charts tonight if your a coldie. The margins however, are so fine and that is something to worry about, even when a cold snap looks nailed on in the UK a drama of some sort (normally Shortwave) puts the cat amongst the pigeon somewhere along the road. Lots more runs needed and given the ECM's 'carrot dangling' performance so far this season I think it's fair to say it's a cautious optimism tonight, optimism nonetheless. The best evening for a coldie in 6 weeks odd I reckon.

[nick sussex]

Well the GFS zonal to cooler zonal, the ECM much better but I have little faith with it when it comes to modelling these kinds of blocking synoptics, I can’t actually think of a time when its outperformed the GFS with this type of evolution, anything else almost every time, but not this sort of blocking.

Sometimes the models are like horses, give them the flat  ie zonal and they're unlikely to unseat their riders or fall, the hurdles probably akin to a northerly toppler, steeplechase Scandi high!

 

If you're going on current form the GFS fell at Beeches on the first circuit of the Grand National, the rest lasted longer, the ECM is still upright and galloping, as commented on by NOAA a few days back the other global models were all over the place upstream with the inland runner, never mind that they reached a consensus finally!

 

The GFS didn't even see the low for several runs and then was too flat and too east, of course with that obstacle cleared we now have tonights ECM drama, its a thriller for sure, a complete toss up either way, with the ridge to the north theres always a chance but equally we could end up with the phased solution let down.

[Gael_Force]

Disagree, the ECM is much better at handling blocks to our East than the GFS and I'm sure the stats will back this up.

 

Quite, it did fine last winter apart from the one major fu that everybody remembers - so much so it is now a staple on the wind up menu.

[weather eater]

Disagree, the ECM is much better at handling blocks to our East than the GFS and I'm sure the stats will back this up.

Fair enough but given that I doubt we can pin point stats for blocks to our east to prove it one way or another I doubt you can prove me wrong so we will just have to agree to disagree and see what happens over the coming days.

[bluearmy]

The amplified ridge at day 6 is strongly agreed on by the ecm ens. Infact, it becomes cut off as the jet storms across below. However, there remains a chance that the ops will get this right moreso than the ens (only a chance but its a reasonable one). A compromise would see us not getting quite as close as the 12z ECM op shows but it may be that there will be a further chance on the next cycle, four or five days later. With the jet possibly weaker at that point, this week could be a rehearsal for the main event. Will be interesting to see if there is a spread supporting a scandi high later.

It remains 'fluid'.

[Tim Bland]

Beat news today IMO is from Ian when he said (before the ECM) that the models we see haven't yet picked up the cold signal for latter in the month. Hopefully the ECM was just the start of them coming onboard

[R.P. McMurphy]

Beat news today IMO is from Ian when he said (before the ECM) that the models we see haven't yet picked up the cold signal for latter in the month. Hopefully the ECM was just the start of them coming onboard

 

Hi Tim,

 

Yes, good news for coldies in that respect. The GFS to be fair has been flirting with this idea for quite a few days now, but obviously it goes further out. Great ECM signals tonight too, and I expect them to keep upgrading the cold after the middle of the month. Fun times ahead one thinks.

[weather eater]

Sometimes the models are like horses, give them the flat  ie zonal and they're unlikely to unseat their riders or fall, the hurdles probably akin to a northerly toppler, steeplechase Scandi high!

 

If you're going on current form the GFS fell at Beeches on the first circuit of the Grand National, the rest lasted longer, the ECM is still upright and galloping, as commented on by NOAA a few days back the other global models were all over the place upstream with the inland runner, never mind that they reached a consensus finally!

 

The GFS didn't even see the low for several runs and then was too flat and too east, of course with that obstacle cleared we now have tonights ECM drama, its a thriller for sure, a complete toss up either way, with the ridge to the north theres always a chance but equally we could end up with the phased solution let down.

As I said nick I would back the ECM over the GFS in any other evolution but the ECM has fallen over a good few times before with this kind of set-up so I lack faith in it, I think the GFS is better in this one regard. If we cast our minds back to 2010 it was the GFS that picked up that memorable spell first and ran with it and from well past 240hrs a remarkable achievement, the ECM on the other hand was slow to pick up on it, and also dropped it at one point, still nobody will be more happy than me if I am wrong this time.

[lassie23]

The gfs dropped the easterly and now the ecmwf has picked it up. This idea of a scandi high in the near future will not go away.

[Gael_Force]

Beat news today IMO is from Ian when he said (before the ECM) that the models we see haven't yet picked up the cold signal for latter in the month. Hopefully the ECM was just the start of them coming onboard

 

Yes, the wording in that posting intrigued me - perhaps reading too much into what was written but got the impression something further range had interesting output.

[nick sussex]

Fair enough but given that I doubt we can pin point stats for blocks to our east to prove it one way or another I doubt you can prove me wrong so we will just have to agree to disagree and see what happens over the coming days.

In terms of recent events the one last winter was originally instigated by the ECM, the GFS followed and then disaster struck when two synoptic changes one upstream and the dreaded shortwave north of Norway led to its implosion.

 

Before that in February 2012 the ECM saw the shortwave  jet cutback which helped to advect cold into the UK, the GFS was hopeless and so was the UKMO. Whilst here in France  saw its coldest weather for over twenty years and if the GFS had been right I'd have been eating out on the terrace!

 

All models have their good and bad moments, lets hope the ECM is having a good one!

[winterof79]

Long time since we have this offered

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2014010312/UN144-21.GIF?03-18

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2014010312/UN144-7.GIF?03-18 cold air marching west

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014010312/ECH1-144.GIF?03-0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014010312/ECH0-144.GIF?03-0

 

Give GFS time and it will come round as it did on the 06z

 

No doubt it will not be good enough output for some still.

[UV-RAY]

Beat news today IMO is from Ian when he said (before the ECM) that the models we see haven't yet picked up the cold signal for latter in the month. Hopefully the ECM was just the start of them coming onboard

He was basing his thoughts on the awful ECM32 by itself though.

[R.P. McMurphy]

Changing my words a bit there, I said it is most likely to do that. Typically January is the best bet for a wintry spell, and as the reliable outlook remains mild, as far as I see it unless things change soon then it is unlikely. We haven't been close so far this winter and we are locked into a zonal pattern, does anyone have any charts in the reliable time frame that suggest this will change otherwise....?

 

Hi robthefool, I can help you here...

 

Great Arctic High from the JMA

 

 

Cold run with snow around some favoured spots

 

 

Something great around the corner from the JMA..

 

 

ECM Easterly incoming...

 

 

Arghghg, incoming...

 

 

Good model agreement from the ECM and UKMO... Great signs for coldies... Coupled with the Ian F update/Met Office...

 

P.S - Won't be able to respond to any questions you may have after this, so apologies in advance.

[ANYWEATHER]

Disagree, the ECM is much better at handling blocks to our East than the GFS and I'm sure the stats will back this up.

I agree with you there , the Gfs is great at the default weather from the Atlantic, the Ecm is much better in picking up weather from the other direction, but in this case on the 12z Ecm  it does not mean its right....  

[A.J]

just to remind folk, a nice run indeed from the ECMWF for cold lovers, but the models do not dictate the weather, so please don't get sucked in yet...wait and see what sort of output is progged over the next few days rather than jumping the gun prematurely to save any 'teddies out of the pram' mentality if things don't pan out as we hope......Also sarcasm, no matter how well how hidden, is still sarcasm, and as such has no place here....thanks 

[cooling climate]

The point could be argued I suppose that the UKMO at t144 is actually better than the

ECM at t144 with the heights more into Greenland and the energy held back further

west. Also with higher heights to feed off to the north east the t168 UKMO chart would

probably be very similar to the ECM t168 but with the high a little further west and able

to influence our weather more.

 

[stratty]

just to remind folk, a nice run indeed from the ECMWF for cold lovers, but the models do not dictate the weather, so please don't get sucked in yet...wait and see what sort of output is progged over the next few days rather than jumping the gun prematurely to save any 'teddies out of the pram' mentality if things don't pan out as we hope......Also sarcasm, no matter how well how hidden, is still sarcasm, and as such has no place here....thanks 

 

.....................also another warning about tonight's ECM is that the eventual outcome could be EVEN BETTER than what is currently shown! BRING IT ON! 

[IDO]

Well at T192 the ensemble mean (12z) min temp compared to the 0z run has a rise in those temps for the west and neutral for the east of the UK:

 

 

I would suggest that the mean is unsupportive of the ECM op. The more detailed graphs should tell us more.

Edited January 3, 2014 by i'm dreaming of...

[The Northern Ramper]

Hmm both the ECM and GFS this evening look like remaining mild and wet, i.e normal winter conditions in the reliable time frame up to 168 hours. By this stage it will be nearly mid January, time is certainly running out for those looking for prolonged cold conditions as I am sure that the rest of this winter will remain mild and wet

Was it March 2013 when we had a substantial cold period? You are writing off this Winter on January 3rd? 

Edited January 3, 2014 by No-Time Toulouse
no need for that.

[Jason T]

With the output today,The ECM and this https://twitter.com/CraigM350/status/419187385344466945/photo/1    Should put a big smile on some faces.

[Cumulonimbus Tower]

Since getting over the pleasure of seeing the ECM this evening, I have been looking at it's output side by side with the other 3 models which imo support the evolution tionight. The UKMO seems even better to my untrained eye (Agree Cooling Climate, just seen your post) with, as previously mentioned the JMA and GEM coming on board. I hope (And now slightly expect) that the too progressive GFS will have to come onboard over the nexy 12 to 24 hours. Roll on the 18z 's and more particulally the UKMO 18. Good call Steve M, Nick S & Et al. Could we be about to see winter in the isles for the first time?

Edited January 3, 2014 by Cumulonimbus Tower

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

 

And so the upgrades continue and close in.  I can only see one way from here and its not the cold getting held back.  We progress

 

 

BFTP