Model Output Discussion 1st January 2014-06z onwards.

[Matty M]

Yes 12z building on the very positive ECM run this morning which I thought offered the most potential of the winter months so far and and certainly providing pause for thought.

[snowbob]

Please dont be one of those

That ecms

We have all been patient enough I think

[tight isobar]

Things certainly rearing in regards colder solutions.ecm having serious crack at stunning synopsis.feeling is of some great outputs over coming days.

[nick sussex]

This ECM run is perfectly plausible as you see a bit more dig of the PV to the west and more energy going se and the no phase. However its just one run and the margin for error is very small.

 

I was hoping we'd get one operational solution like this just so people didn't think I was obsessing over this phasing.

[Matty M]

Only one run edging in the right direction, mega caution advised

[Purga]

Battleground UK

Euro view

Edited January 3, 2014 by Purga

[TSNWK]

216 ECM can I say boom please and light up my hamlet... Cracking run.. Enjoy peeps..

[Jason M]

JMA none to shabby either :-)

[Summer Sun]

Big changes from ECM this evening

 

00z

 

 

12z

 

 

Lots of cold air approaching the east

 

[chris55]

ECM bringing some new year cheer!! After the last few days runs the potential has been brewing IMO. And tonights run is getting closer!!!!!

 

[Tony Beets]

Do we reckon height rises to Greenland at 240? Cracking run!!!

[tight isobar]

Yes only one run (ecm).However other cross mod, has been at least trending solutions!!! For turnaround of sorts.all to watch and speculate at the very least just now.

[Mucka]

Nice slider.

 

 

I know how Nick S feels, It makes all the analysis worthwhile when we get charts that actually show the potential that some have been trying to spell out for some time, despite the constant zonal doom posts ignoring such analysis.

That said, it is one run and the set up looks rather marginal so best to keep expectations in check for now.

Nice to see potential actually modelled though isn't it?

Edited January 3, 2014 by Mucka

[Summer Sun]

t240 from ECM is close but no cigar for the coldest air, but a step in the right direction for coldies

 

 

Over to the ensemble run in 90 mins now to see what support if any it has

[Purga]

Finishes well

Good cold airmass over Scandinavia.

[chris55]

Lovely! 240 should be nice!

Edit.

 

240 not quite there on this run but overall generally a great run,loaded with potential.

 

Edited January 3, 2014 by chris55

[tight isobar]

As usual as some have flaged up caution urged...However drastic and change of circumstance has to begin somewhere ...;-)

[Captain Shortwave]

That cold air is so.... so close. Given there will be frontal systems pushing east into a cold continental flow then I wouldn't be surprised to see some snow anywhere in inland areas. 

One thing to note is that cold air last night was barely reaching Finland, this morning the Scandinavian coastline, this evening it's brushing the East coast of the UK. A better split flow against that high (more south east and less north east) and the high will hold more steady over Scandinavia and allow the coldest air to reach the UK.

[The PIT]

ECM time to tease. To be fair it's does build on UKMO's idea. However I won't take it as gospel and tomorrows run will no doubt show a different outcome.

[tinybill]

when you  go looking for in  f1 some dry weather  and our  winter  !!  looking at the  last frame   for  Jan i9 another  beast 925 mb

[Mucka]

And JMA certainly not without interest.

 

 

Tiny wedge of milder uppers saving the UK from a "big freeze" - but for how long? 

Edited January 3, 2014 by Mucka

[Downpour]

I urge caution etc etc. (well someone has to!)

[nick sussex]

Tonights ECM has activated my Red Warning for synoptic development, basically  the margin for error is incredibly small!

 

Also activated is an Amber Warning for the NWTU Net Weather Trauma Unit in case this implodes in the morning and theres an influx of members.

 

Essentially here the models all agree on the general pattern, but its some small subtle differences that have a big impact on the pattern going forward, the ECM was a really nice run especially after the absolutely dire weather over the last month, what we need to see however is a bigger margin for error.

[cooling climate]

LOL I'm loving the  consistency shown by the operational models  output. The ECM tonight

trying to make the most out of the weak heights to our north and northeast. Both the ECM

and the GFS have toyed with what the ECM is showing tonight and it probably has a 50/50

chance of materializing.

[weather eater]

Well the GFS zonal to cooler zonal, the ECM much better but I have little faith with it when it comes to modelling these kinds of blocking synoptics, I can’t actually think of a time when its outperformed the GFS with this type of evolution, anything else almost every time, but not this sort of blocking.