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Model Output Discussion 1st January 2014-06z onwards.


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Posted
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20

    As others have elluded to, no major change from last night.  The full De Bilt ensembles are pretty ordinary and the day 10 ECMWF ensemble chart posted by Gibby is very uninspiring.

     

    http://www.knmi.nl/exp/pluim/vijftiendaagse/index.php

     

    Things can change and probably will at some point - time will tell as ever.

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    Posted
  • Location: Dublin
  • Location: Dublin

    Well to me the models have the most potential they have all winter this morning.

     

    GFS and ECM are very interesting post 144hrs and i would be quite optimistic this morning for cold weather potential towards the middle/late Jan.

     

    This chart from the ECMWF is full of potential:

     

    Posted Image

    Edited by Matty M
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    Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.

    Yes Matty very positive signs this morning, very interesting model watching indeed over the coming days. 

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    Posted
  • Location: North west England/East Lancashire/Burnley
  • Location: North west England/East Lancashire/Burnley

    Yep...but maybe not until DecPosted Image

    Thats a frightening prospect for a coldie :(
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    Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

     

     

    This chart from the ECMWF is full of potential:

     

     

    well each to their own interpretation Matty but I don't see where. Perhaps you can explain what you see that I don't please?

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    Posted
  • Location: Bude
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme weather...heavy snow and heat waves
  • Location: Bude

    It's very confusing for newbies reading posts on this thread today...one post lots of potential next post no hope...who are people ment to believe

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    Posted
  • Location: North west England/East Lancashire/Burnley
  • Location: North west England/East Lancashire/Burnley

    It's very confusing for newbies reading posts on this thread today...one post lots of potential next post no hope...who are people ment to believe

    Lots of cold /mild bias on here you will get used to it..if all else fails just look out the window that will never fail you.
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    Posted
  • Location: Exile from Argyll
  • Location: Exile from Argyll

    It's very confusing for newbies reading posts on this thread today...one post lots of potential next post no hope...who are people ment to believe

     

    It depends on which model, what time frame, the preferences of the poster and level of knowledge - you have been through one winter, you'll know by now where the unbiased comments originate.

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    Posted
  • Location: Bude
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme weather...heavy snow and heat waves
  • Location: Bude

    Lots of cold /mild bias on here you will get used to it..if all else fails just look out the window that will never fail you.

    I know there's cold/mild bias but it's ridiculous this morning, how can you interpret the models so differently
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    Posted
  • Location: hertfordshire
  • Location: hertfordshire

    The GFS 0z stratosphere charts shown on instant weather maps seem odd to me this morning.

    The warming has down graded from where we were a couple of days ago and yet it is showing

    a sblit almost at the 10mb and 30mb level. With this to a lesser extent filtering all the way down

    to the 100mb level and troposphere hence the blocking to the north in the FI range of the model

    output.

    The ECM stratosphere charts now showing warming in the 10 day range at 10mb and 30mb levels.

    I feel a lot more optimistic again this morning regarding the last two weeks of January especially

    with the ECM model picking up on the warming and therefore would disregard the EC32 update at

    the present time.

     

    10mb GPH chart. 30mb GPH chart

    post-10506-0-81091700-1388744512_thumb.g post-10506-0-55032200-1388744607_thumb.g

    100mb GPH chart

    post-10506-0-90196200-1388744651_thumb.g

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    Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
  • Location: Orpington Kent.

    I know there's cold/mild bias but it's ridiculous this morning, how can you interpret the models so differently

    There was a decent GFS this morning, that's it really. Background signals are poor for cold, Ec32 is poor for cold but don't seem to have the profile of the GFS operational runs.
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    Posted
  • Location: North west England/East Lancashire/Burnley
  • Location: North west England/East Lancashire/Burnley

    I know there's cold/mild bias but it's ridiculous this morning, how can you interpret the models so differently

    I know your right difficult is not the word i personally read Gibbys posts and John holmes and if their posts arnt looking great i read Frostys as he sees the positive in everything even if its 1million hours out.
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    Posted
  • Location: Linslade, Beds
  • Weather Preferences: Deep cold
  • Location: Linslade, Beds

    CFS Long range model still showing a well below average March and then summer looks to be going down the

    plug hole big time, no sign of high pressure over the uk at all and its been showing this for a while .

     

    Shotski

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    Posted
  • Location: Cyprus and North east Swindon. 104 ASL
  • Location: Cyprus and North east Swindon. 104 ASL

    Is this a Scandy high coming, looks good at T276

    First eye candy at semi FI range for a while

    Edited by Ali1977
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    Posted
  • Location: Littlehampton, West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms
  • Location: Littlehampton, West Sussex

    I know your right difficult is not the word i personally read Gibbys posts and John holmes and if their posts arnt looking great i read Frostys as he sees the positive in everything even if its 1million hours out.

     

    I agree two posts at 7.46 and 7.48 said " no cold signal overnight" and then "great charts for coldies" respectively. I know this is model discussion, but it doesn't not help the newbie or beginner.

     

    Sorry if a bit off topic!

    Edited by mjking73
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    Posted
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE

    The models continue to edge towards consensus upstream in terms of the inland runner low, in a typical model switch the GFS has gone from zero to hero because its output at least shows some potential before the lower resolution.

     

    The ECM I'm afraid is crxp over the UK! I can see a way to cold with the GFS, sadly the ECM gets an A for frustration!

     

    The GFS is more amplified with the upstream energy and has more dig to the PV, we don't quite have the right angle of WAA towards Svalbard but it could still develop, the ECM has already phased energies and its game over as thats flatter with the PV.

    Edited by nick sussex
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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    CFS Long range model still showing a well below average March and then summer looks to be going down the

    plug hole big time, no sign of high pressure over the uk at all and its been showing this for a while .

     

    Shotski

    The dear, old CFS is having a hard time of things just now, isn't it?

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    Posted
  • Location: Cyprus and North east Swindon. 104 ASL
  • Location: Cyprus and North east Swindon. 104 ASL

    This looks a really cold GFS, no comment?? I guess it's unlikely to happen then

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    Posted
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl

    Meanwhile,as early as Saturday...

     

     

     

    Some fun for Ireland?

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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge
  • Location: Cambridge

    Fantastic GFS FI, lack of comments are a bit bewildering. Anyway, after this mornings ens I'm slightly more optimistic now, but let's give it a few days yet. Easterly central though in candy land!

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    Posted
  • Location: ILCHESTER
  • Location: ILCHESTER

    Meanwhile,as early as Saturday...

     

    Posted Image14010412_0306.gif

     

     

    Some fun for Ireland?

    Problem is those charts are notorious for overdoing snow/snow potential. Given everything I can see some low level sleet is likely, but any wet snow will be confined to higher elevations unless the rain becomes heavy enough for evap cooling. 

    Edited by shedhead
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    Posted
  • Location: ILCHESTER
  • Location: ILCHESTER

    As long as people post charts to back up their comments I don't see what the problem is, we all have our own opinions which is why I like posting on here..as well as being the BEST weather site in the universe. :-)

    I think you'll find there's a better one on Pluto...with a very active winter model watching thread....Posted Image

    Edited by shedhead
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