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phil nw.

Model Output Discussion 1st January 2014-06z onwards.

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I'm with you on this, can't understand why people want cold weather.

 

You would understand if every track around you was ankle deep in mud and almost impassable. After a few footsteps, walking along becomes like wearing a pair of concrete blocks and once back home it's out with the hose and getting soaked again washing it off.

 

The mud's still there after a frost, but you can walk on top of it.

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Understandably, the cold and snow isn't every weather fan's cup of tea. Not much guarantee whether snow will occur next week at the moment (or at least not for all areas of the UK with a good chance the white stuff could stay locked away towards the North-Eastern parts of the UK, which would be good news for the South-Western UK mild weather fans. But, who knows, the snow might not even affect any parts of the UK at all with the possible exception of mountainous areas). Clearly, the snow chances could continue to flunctuate from model run to model run, and I feel their may be a few more mysteries to uncover with regards to the blocking developments to our North next week and the longevity and potency of the cool/cold spell, even though some sort of flow off the continent looks likely. But it probably will indeed end up being this weekend until we're very confident of the exact behaviour of the blocking patterns to our North for next week (should it develop properly), and how the Lows/troughs interact with it.

Also, should the likes of the GFS continue its deep Fantasy Island idea of the Polar Vortex sweeping in from the North-West and trying to make a dash towards Northern Scandinvia or Siberia, then those who are not keen on the cold and snow, could eventually see their worse enemy developing to the North West - the Greenland High! Posted Image

(Certainly not definite, mind you).

I wonder what sort of adventures the 00Z GFS and its pals will take us on? No doubt they will probably play all sorts of usual mischievious tricks on some of us, and cause all sorts of teeth-chattering moments.

Edited by DiagonalRedLine

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Not particularly liking the GFS 00z which throws out yet again another outcome. The low just sits out in the Atlantic and fills as it has nowhere to go. Thanks to this the colder uppers to our east don't even come close to our shores and even begin retreating back towards the reforming PV in the latter frames. Let's hope this is an outlier and the ensembles keep up the theme of backing colder outcomes. This really is knife edge stuff!

Edited by Ian Suffolk

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UKMO the low to our west is round at 72 a little energy did go south east at 96, however at 120 and 144 we are presented with a flabby low to our west lingering around pumping Atlantic air over us.

GFS looked a little a better in getting energy over and beyond us, but then I looked at the 850 charts, light blue at best, no deep cold to tap in.

Gem was again the best looking set of charts synoptic wise, but then I looked at the 850 charts, green and light blue only as no cold pool to tap in.

It's a bad set of morning runs folks so far, sorry. Can ECM draw out the drama

Edited by TSNWK

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Pretty good agreement within the GEFS for opportunity 1 too fail now;

post-12721-0-91502700-1389333201_thumb.j

However, can we move quickly on to "opportunity 2"?

UKMO at 144hrs shows the trough attempting to cut off into the UK;

post-12721-0-87667400-1389333319_thumb.j

Possibility therefore of another chance to bite into the cold airmass forecast over Scandi although how long the pattern would hold is open to debate with the possibility of the Canadian vortex reinvigorating the northern arm and sinking the blocking.

GFS Op not quite as split and amplified as the UKMO, but not a million miles away either;

post-12721-0-57524600-1389333501_thumb.j

Won't bother looking past 144hrs as this will change again as it frequently has done these last few days.

The GEM remains the best at 144hrs still with a more elongated and negatively tilted trough;

post-12721-0-62733800-1389333673_thumb.j

And goes into to show how, with a bit of tweaking, we could get opportunity 2;

post-12721-0-80024700-1389333837_thumb.j

The full GEFS suite also showing potential for opportunity 2 around the 20th;

post-12721-0-54935300-1389333888_thumb.j

So I think we have to let the first bite go now but dust ourselves off and move onto the potential for a second bite soon after. All in all a continuation of some much improved NWP output than of late with they key final ingredient just out of arms reach for now. :)

Edited by AWD

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Out t144 on the big three and little consistency on the strength of the block to ne and therefore the placing of the low. Need to see how this pans out. If the block remains in situ, better the chances moving forward.

http://images.meteociel.fr/im/1134/gfsnh-0-192_qhy0.png

http://images.meteociel.fr/im/2375/ECH1-192_rph9.GIF

T192 !!

Edited by That ECM

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It may well end up all being linked but that would be my suspicion - certainly something within the realms of the GIN corridor and if we can get the tropospheric vortex somewhere towards the East of the meridian before the next suspected wave 1 hits later in the month then it certainly gives us the best chance of something like Greenland height rises going forwardSK

 

 makings of a bigger hit this time rapid heating

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014011000/gfsnh-10-372.png?0

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014011000/gfsnh-10-384.png?0

 

ECM and UKMO both showing a stand off between the atlantic and continental air at 144

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014011000/ECM1-144.GIF?10-12

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2014011000/UW144-21.GIF?10-06

 

ECM has the atlantic winning ......at present. UKMO we will have to wait

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014011000/ECM0-144.GIF?10-12

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2014011000/UW144-7.GIF?10-06

As is always the case do not write off the continental push being stronger.

Heights to our n/e are going nowhere anytime soon

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2014011000/UN144-21.GIF?10-06

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014011000/ECH1-144.GIF?10-12

Edited by winterof79

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UKMO the low to our west is round at 72 a little energy did go south east at 96, however at 120 and 144 we are presented with a flabby low to our west lingering around pumping Atlantic air over us.GFS looked a little a better in getting energy over and beyond us, but then I looked at the 850 charts, light blue at best, no deep cold to tap in.Gem was again the best looking set of charts synoptic wise, but then I looked at the 850 charts, green and light blue only as no cold pool to tap in.It's a bad set of morning runs folks so far, sorry. Can ECM draw out the drama

ECM does split the energy to our west, but it heads directly southwards towards Portugal and unless we get energy going to our south and east of the meridian we are scruppered, heights to our north are also heading of East. Is this a case of the jet being too amplified...Sorry folks but its poor across the board this morning. Edited by TSNWK

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Looking at the latest output this morning isn't happy reading. The gfs 00z shows the pv reforming in its latter frames. The ukmo just sums up our winter. Looking wet and windy next week again. Not good for flood hit areas. ECM also showing the Atlantic moving through later next week. Think I'm going to throw the towel in now. Just doesn't seem to want to happen for us this winter.

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It really is hard to take. The charts are pitiful!! We have the high and opportunity for lows to undercut and still it doesn't happen for us! We're fast running out of winter time now. Frustrating

Pittyful that?

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014011000/ECH1-240.GIF?10-12

 

I will probably come back and look at the 12z avoid the carnage.

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Going to be closing this and starting a fresh thread shortly..

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By day 10 on ECM we have an easterly but there isn't much cold to tap into

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At face value it's not great but really the charts are all over the place. Ensembles are also useless.

Personally wouldn't bother trying to make a forecast from this mornings data.

Something's brewing as it's not often we see this level of disagreement at day 5. Whether it's an easterly or Spanish plume is to be decided though :-)

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