Model Output Discussion 1st January 2014-06z onwards.

[Ice Day]

Well, low res has gone a bit mental, but the high res charts are looking much more positive.  Hopefully this trend will continue tomorrow and another day of fascinating model watching.

[Katiewombat]

Nice cold pool arriving from southern Norway, via quite a strong easterly!

Nice cold pool arriving from southern Norway, via quite a strong easterly!

Nice cold pool arriving from southern Norway, via quite a strong easterly!

I have to ask this. After all these years reading the thread I am trying to actually understand the models. How do you know the cold pool is arriving.

Feeling very stupid now.

Katie

[tight isobar]

18z pocked and prodded a bit harder than its 12z....but still no one's any the wiser!

[R.P. McMurphy]

I think the low res has lost the plot a bit here... I think if it went further, you would see a greenland high followed by a Northerley.

 

PV completely left Canada.

 

[Purga]

A mad GFS type finish BUT a very interesting upstream pattern over N America

PV split asunder and kicked out of residence over Greenland and Baffin entirely.

[Ali1977]

Look at the wind direction, and 850 temps creeping towards us from Scandy..

[bluearmy]

next ec 32 imminent. i wonder if it will display the early disassociation with the ecm ens mean that joe B illustrated in a recent article ?

[Nick F]

The block to the NE ain't going anywhere fast, the models, especially GFS will always try to break it down in low res and bring back in the Atlantic, but are often far too hasty. It may end up being a frustratingly slow process trying to get the deep cold to back west the UK, but I'd be surprised if it doesn't eventually, given the position that the block is setting up and the favourable pattern upstream. Historically, similar blocked patterns have more often than not delivered, if not straight away. Nothing to be downbeat about today IMo, unless you are in hurry to tap into the cold. Of course, I may be wrong.

Edited January 9, 2014 by Nick F

[pages]

Loads of changes still to come but this is a good run snow events towards end of high res then the hemispheric pattern at end of low res is excellent.

[stratty]

I have to ask this. After all these years reading the thread I am trying to actually understand the models. How do you know the cold pool is arriving.Feeling very stupid now.Katie

look at the 850s is easiest

 

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=nwdc;sess=

Edited January 9, 2014 by stratty

[Panayiotis]

I have to ask this. After all these years reading the thread I am trying to actually understand the models. How do you know the cold pool is arriving.Feeling very stupid now.Katie

Does this help?

[london-snow]

next ec 32 imminent. i wonder if it will display the early disassociation with the ecm ens mean that joe B illustrated in a recent article ?

Yes it is important as most runs are at this stage, However with the large uncertainty in the early to mid range wouldn't the 32 be although not useless a bit of a unnecessary factor as we still don't have anything nailed on early to mid range..

[Cloud 10]

Lol! another change in the outputs! Oh dear this is getting silly now.

 

Just shows the importance of timing upstream and the football low changing to oval can we get the elongated tomorrow? The crucial thing is that the UKMO output does not verify at T96hrs.

 

We await the fax charts with interest, do they leave the Freddie Kruger output intact with no modifications or do they shelve the Nightmare T96hrs raw output.

 

Freddie all the way at 96 hrs.

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/fax/fax96s.gif?09-12

 

They seem to have stuck with the raw output for the 120 hrs as well.

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/fax/fax120s.gif?09-12

Edited January 9, 2014 by Cloud 10

[Katiewombat]

Does this help?

Thank you it does. I think I have chosen the worst time ever to start learning. Katie

[Panayiotis]

Thank you it does. I think I have chosen the worst time ever to start learning.

Katie

Nope, probably the best, because you get a lot of input of the models when there's a cold snap/spell approaching!

 

Nick, not many modifications on the FAX 120hrs tonight....

Edited January 9, 2014 by Panayiotis

[nick sussex]

Freddie all the way at 96 hrs.

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/fax/fax96s.gif?09-12

Surprised at that, thought they may modify it, given all the chopping and changing lets hope that meets the shredder in the morning.

[Downpour]

Lol! another change in the outputs! Oh dear this is getting silly now. Just shows the importance of timing upstream and the football low changing to oval can we get the elongated tomorrow? The crucial thing is that the UKMO output does not verify at T96hrs. We await the fax charts with interest, do they leave the Freddie Kruger output intact with no modifications or do they shelve the Nightmare T96hrs raw output.

Yes indeed Nick just checking in. Anyone fancy chronicling GFS's mood changes over the past 48 hrs? I think I have counted a frigid easterly, a monsoon and a near hurricane. We just need a heatwave to complete the set. Unlikely at this time of year, but with GFS you just never know.

[nick sussex]

Nope, probably the best, because you get a lot of input of the models when there's a cold snap/spell approaching!

 

Nick, not many modifications on the FAX 120hrs tonight....

Given how underwhelming the T96hrs was its quite an achievement to even get to that fax chart, if we lose the football low then things will improve dramatically.

[Captain Shortwave]

The control run follows suit

The mean also shows a more elongated atlantic low

Compared to the last run

[Cloud 10]

Surprised at that, thought they may modify it, given all the chopping and changing lets hope that meets the shredder in the morning.

 

Yes,i thought that they may have given a nod towards the ECM ensemble mean

at least for the 120 hrs.

 

[Mucka]

Ensembles only out to 114 but they look much better than 12z with more disruption and undercut but there are all sorts of variations so this is still wide open.

Funny GFS 18z last night was the first set of ensembles to start the wobble and that continued through today - are we now going to see that reversed again. Could we even take any more drama? Course we can!

[SMU]

So then can tomorrow carry on where the 18z has left off-

 

18z Ensemble Mean is WELL back at 120 with split lows - Control is also good.

 

Fingers crossed for this trend tomorrow-

 

S

[nick sussex]

Yes,i thought that they may have given a nod towards the ECM ensemble mean

at least for the 120 hrs.

 

EDM1-120.gif

I think the problem is that the jump from T96hrs to the 120hrs ECM mean would look too much of a leap synoptically. One things for sure we must not see the T96hrs output again, that needs to go in the morning at least to be replaced by the other global models view of how those two lows phase at that timeframe.

[BlueHedgehog074]

The block to the NE ain't going anywhere fast, the models, especially GFS will always try to break it down in low res and bring back in the Atlantic. It may end up being a frustratingly slow process trying to get the deep cold to back west the UK, but I'd be surprised if it doesn't eventually, given the position that the block is setting up and the favourable pattern upstream. Historically, similar blocked patterns have more often than not delivered, if not straight away. Nothing to be downbeat about today IMo, unless you are in hurry to tap into the cold. Of course, I may be wrong.

Agreed. It's true that cold Easterly flows can easily fail at times, but I think the GFS pub run, the GEM, (and that fairly decent looking ECMWF ensemble mean) illustrates that the possible cold Easterly setup next week is not ready to let go of the UK yet. There was also that post by Snowking earlier about how the models would likely to continue to produce variations of the likely blocking theme next week, but with the general pattern still mostly intact (e.g: block to the North/North-East, areas of Low heights to the South - http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/78936-model-output-discussion-1st-january-2014-06z-onwards/page-139#entry2890212). I suppose some of those sphere-shaped Lows out West on some of the models next week probably might need watching, although it could be that case that closer to that period, those Lows could easily become more squashed with a fair amount of trough disruption spitting Eastwards or South-Eastwards out of them. I think your post is also a good reason for our toys to stay tied up in our prams for now.

[Cheshire Freeze]

Not long been in.....catching up.......

 

Nice to see the 18z halt the rot somewhat. What an absolute nightmare this is turning out to be in terms of modelling. If I've interpreted Fergie's post earlier correctly, what transpires next week may have huge ramifications going forward....maybe due to some kind of tropospheric feedback mechanism?

 

I thought this would be the case yesterday....blocking either becomes entrenched or it doesn't.

Edited January 9, 2014 by CreweCold