Jump to content
Will it snow? 7 day forecast Weather Radar Will it be cold?
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?
IGNORED

Model Output Discussion 1st January 2014-06z onwards.

phil nw.

By phil nw.
in Forecast Model Discussion

 Share

Recommended Posts

Mucka Maestro

Mucka

Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester
Posted

Sorry are you still talking about the Jet or about the heights?

 

The jet. Posted Image

Link to comment
Share on other sites
bluearmy Maestro

bluearmy

Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
Posted

for the gfs to be right at day 7, the ecm ens mean/anomoly has to be very wrong. i dont buy that, given that the ecm ens are running only a few km behind the gfs op in resolution.

  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Downpour Community Regular

Downpour

Posted
  • Location: North East London (E4) 147ft
  • Location: North East London (E4) 147ft
Posted (edited)

This run is absolute cobblers, I can't see the low just sitting out west like that and declining in situ.I'm not giving up yet!

A strange feature of this run for sure. A limpet low in the mid Atlantic seemingly untroubled either way by either a] the jet or b] an easterly push. 

 

Hmm. I can only wonder what Fergie and our friends at Exeter make of this meteorological oddity. 

Edited by Downpour
Link to comment
Share on other sites
shaky Veteran

shaky

Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester
Posted

Well the ukmo 120 and 144 hour charts will hopefully look better than the gfs at least!!if ecm looks good this evening then I expect the ukmo and gfs to improve!!

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Tim Bland Maestro

Tim Bland

Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
Posted

At least there is a new possiblity on offer... Before it was does the high go under?, over? or through? the block. Now its the low goes.....Nowhere! It just sits to the west of the UK stopping any cold coming our way and keeing it grey and miserable. Lots of twists and turns to come though I feel. By the pub run it will probably go straight under and provide uk wide blizzards on its way.  !

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
MR EXTREMES Experienced

MR EXTREMES

Posted
  • Location: portsmouth uk
  • Weather Preferences: extremes
  • Location: portsmouth uk
Posted (edited)

what is very amusing though is there was cross model support lastnight and this morning now its a complete collapse of the whole pattern change.

and im a little worried that both ukmo and gfs are backing away from the easterly idea.

 

2 down 3 other models to go jma ecm and gem.

 

the gem is only out to 48 hours and does not look much different from yesterday.

Posted Image

Edited by emotional rollercoaster
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Panayiotis Seasoned

Panayiotis

Posted
  • Location: Cardiff/Reading Uni
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Sun, Heat, Cold,T/storms via Spanish plumes *rare*
  • Location: Cardiff/Reading Uni
Posted (edited)

GEM still showing easterly undercut!

Posted Image

Edited by Panayiotis
  • Like 8
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Downpour Community Regular

Downpour

Posted
  • Location: North East London (E4) 147ft
  • Location: North East London (E4) 147ft
Posted

At least there is a new possiblity on offer... Before it was does the high go under?, over? or through? the block. Now its the low goes.....Nowhere! It just sits to the west of the UK stopping any cold coming our way and keeing it grey and miserable. Lots of twists and turns to come though I feel. By the pub run it will probably go straight under and provide uk wide blizzards on its way.  !

I hope it's not my cold bias Tim but I'm thinking the 12z could be one for the bin. It's not plausible IMO, although I am no expert!

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites
karlos1983 Maestro

karlos1983

Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
Posted

I cant understand for the life of me how that low doesn't go under? What is stopping it? Can anyone explain?

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Cecil Hogmanay Melchett Community Regular

Cecil Hogmanay Melchett

Posted
Posted

LOL Not even a frost next week if gfs12z is correct,i hope GEM keeps the faith this evening,and ECM of course.

The thing is,and its undeniable,once a downgrade starts,its like the whole pack of cards falls in,this has happened so many times its almost as if the models tease us (and thats a polite way of saying how i feel). :(

We had a lovely 1035mb scandy high on 12z gfs and the low just sits there to the west,cant understand why it didnt disrupt...

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Downpour Community Regular

Downpour

Posted
  • Location: North East London (E4) 147ft
  • Location: North East London (E4) 147ft
Posted

I cant understand for the life of me how that low doesn't go under? What is stopping it? Can anyone explain?

No. It's bizarre. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
snowice Seasoned

snowice

Posted
  • Location: HILL OF TARA IRELAND
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW ICE
  • Location: HILL OF TARA IRELAND
Posted

I cant understand for the life of me how that low doesn't go under? What is stopping it? Can anyone explain?

 

 

If you look at the end of the 12Zgfs it has the low south of Ireland it must have stopped of and had a Guinness.

 

It doesn’t know what to do with its self!

 

Doesn’t look right.

  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Downpour Community Regular

Downpour

Posted
  • Location: North East London (E4) 147ft
  • Location: North East London (E4) 147ft
Posted

If you look at the end of the 12Zgfs it has the low south of Ireland it must have stopped of and had a Guinness.

 

It doesn’t know what to do with its self!

 

Doesn’t look right.

Whatever happens, cold or mild, I would be gobsmacked if the 12z verifies. Bin it would be my advice. Sheer fantasy that the low sits there for so long. Not plausible. 

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites
  • Popular Post
Paul Maestro

Paul

Posted
  • Location: Aviemore
  • Location: Aviemore
  • Popular Post
Posted

Again, posts like:

 

"This run is bad"

"This run is a shocker"

"That's it, the cold isn't coming"

 

Are not model discussion, they're model reaction, and that sort of reaction is not what this thread is for so please put them over into the model banter thread:

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/78680-model-banter-moans-and-ramps-winter-201314/

 

Posts are being removed because of this, it's wasting your time and the teams time, and ultimately for those who won't make the effort to make sure their posts are relevant to the thread they're posted into, it will lead to the possibility of being stopped from posting into any of the model threads. No-one wants that to happen, but equally those using this thread deserve to be able to use it as intended - ie as a discussion about the model output, not as a toy throwing, emotional rollercoaster with no actual model related info within a large portion of the posts.

 

Please take heed of this!!!!

  • Like 22
Link to comment
Share on other sites
karlos1983 Maestro

karlos1983

Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
Posted

No. It's bizarre. 

 

It's heading SE, Heights to the west, Heights to the E/NE, nothing to stop it going under?

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Panayiotis Seasoned

Panayiotis

Posted
  • Location: Cardiff/Reading Uni
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Sun, Heat, Cold,T/storms via Spanish plumes *rare*
  • Location: Cardiff/Reading Uni
Posted

no gem is actually  out delays any cold air

Yep sorry, post edited as I didnt see the updated hours at the bottom of the page 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Ali1977 Maestro

Ali1977

Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
Posted

Its gone from -8c to +4 on top of the Scottish hills in one run at T240....just shows models have no clue at this range...

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Snowman. Accomplished

Snowman.

Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
Posted

What I saw of the GFS 12z

 

Posted Image

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Snowmad79 Aficionado

Snowmad79

Posted
  • Location: Sholver - Oldham East - 250m / 820ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowageddon and a new ice age. Then a summer long bbq heatwave!
  • Location: Sholver - Oldham East - 250m / 820ft ASL
Posted

I cant understand for the life of me how that low doesn't go under? What is stopping it? Can anyone explain?

 

Didn't Steve or someone say the other day that if Lows barrel in from the Atlantic to deep they wont slide SE under the High ? I am sure someone mentioned it.

 

Anyway, quite a shocking flip from the models today. It seems like one of occasions where a forecasted block with cross model aggreement was never even there to begin with.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
 Share
Go to topic listing
×
×
  • Create New...