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Model Output Discussion 1st January 2014-06z onwards.

phil nw.

By phil nw.
in Forecast Model Discussion

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Ali1977 Maestro

Ali1977

Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
Posted

Once this low clears south it may drag in much stronger easterlys

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Tim Bland Maestro

Tim Bland

Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
Posted

Wow this is relly knife edge stuff (in a weather geek type of way) a few hundred mile shift of that low mid next week will make the difference between puddles and snow men. It will probably be the case that No one can say until 24hrs out which it will be. If I was in the North east or on high ground i'd be quite excited about the end of next week.

 

12z not that different to the 06z so far in my view... Calm down people it is just the weather ... enjoy the ride!

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Snowy L Maestro

Snowy L

Posted
  • Location: Burton-on-Trent (90m), Larnaka most Augusts
  • Location: Burton-on-Trent (90m), Larnaka most Augusts
Posted (edited)

Wow this is relly knife edge stuff (in a weather geek type of way) a few hundred mile shift of that low mid next week will make the difference between puddles and snow men. It will probably be the case that No one can say until 24hrs out which it will be. If I was in the North east or on high ground i'd be quite excited about the end of next week.

 

12z not that different to the 06z so far in my view... Calm down people it is just the weather ... enjoy the ride!

Yes but the ride this winter has been the equivalent of a park slide.

Edited by Snowy L
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karlos1983 Maestro

karlos1983

Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
Posted

This can't be good from the UKMO at +96

 

Posted Image

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Mucka Maestro

Mucka

Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester
Posted (edited)

Every consecutive run since last night from GFS has put more and more energy into the jet and the 12z has the strongest yet through the mid term.

 

Oh dear UKMO, that's not good. 

Edited by Mucka
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MR EXTREMES Experienced

MR EXTREMES

Posted
  • Location: portsmouth uk
  • Weather Preferences: extremes
  • Location: portsmouth uk
Posted

"Totally giving up" and "fail" are absolutes - the weather is not about absolutes, it is about getting as close to the right forecast as we can, with caveats about timing and all sorts of little details. If this run "fails" I am not giving up on an Easterly. There are some excellent features in this run that would serve in our favour in the long run, such as stronger heights to our north. This does not guarantee their occurrence but it is a good signal. In any case this run looks as promising as any other run I have seen lately i.e. I am not a fortune teller and not an expert!

thank you steve im glad I was reading the charts correctly im not trying to put the thread on a downer im just as frustrated as the next but I only commented the way I did because I been listening to nick sussex and others on the best way for easterlies that's all.

 

although the potential is still there in the latter charts slighty

Posted Image

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Johnp Accomplished

Johnp

Posted
  • Location: North East Hampshire
  • Location: North East Hampshire
Posted

no neg tilt perfect round low pressure its a fail dreadful climb down by the gfs.Posted Imagecan it still slide under don't look like it.

Is there any chance of using some grammar? Take your time!
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Snowman. Accomplished

Snowman.

Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
Posted (edited)

thank you steve im glad I was reading the charts correctly im not trying to put the thread on a downer im just as frustrated as the next but I only commented the way I did because I been listening to nick sussex and others on the best way for easterlies that's all.

 

although the potential is still there in the latter charts slighty

Posted Image

The only people its letting down is someone believing in a very complicated pattern 72+ hours away.

Edited by SN0WM4N
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Johnp Accomplished

Johnp

Posted
  • Location: North East Hampshire
  • Location: North East Hampshire
Posted

This run is absolute cobblers, I can't see the low just sitting out west like that and declining in situ.

I'm not giving up yet!

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cooling climate Aficionado

cooling climate

Posted
  • Location: hertfordshire
  • Location: hertfordshire
Posted

Oh dear there is nothing remotely pleasing about the GFS 12z op run. The only positive

you could say is that it does not model energy in the Atlantic very well and if that is

wrong then the whole run is faulty.

Lets see what the Euro's say.

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karlos1983 Maestro

karlos1983

Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
Posted

Please open that door already to the east 

Posted Image

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Mucka Maestro

Mucka

Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester
Posted

Can you expand on that? The Jet is still heading south....... http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn15615.png

 

I will give you the full technical detail  - it was green and yellows now its yellow and oranges. (SW Greenland)  

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Paul Maestro

Paul

Posted
  • Location: Aviemore
  • Location: Aviemore
Posted

Can I recommend the banter/moaning/ramping thread for those who have nothing else to add other than a rant/whine or ramp without any actual model discussion. There's nothing wrong with these types of posts, but they need to go into the right place and not clutter up the model thread.

 

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/78680-model-banter-moans-and-ramps-winter-201314/

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tight isobar Maestro

tight isobar

Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
Posted

Gfs gets sent to bed with no supper, you bad girl...

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