Model Output Discussion 1st January 2014-06z onwards.

[MR EXTREMES]

oh but lets not leave out the jma which in its last charts throws a possible reload from the east.....

[winterof79]

Well if thats the worst ECM can throw at us as a chart i would take it any winter

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014010812/ECH1-240.GIF?08-0

[I remember Atlantic 252]

oh but lets not leave out the jma which in its last charts throws a possible reload from the east.....

 

JMA not updated yet om meteociel

[Tim Bland]

Sorry to dampen the mood on here but apparently some of the models we don't see are still not on board. Just read this on twitter

@EssexWeather: Exciting times! ECM, GFS onboard but MOGREPS and UKMO-G say no for now.

[winterof79]

Sorry to dampen the mood on here but apparently some of the models we don't see are still not on board. Just read this on twitter@EssexWeather: Exciting times! ECM, GFS onboard but MOGREPS and UKMO-G say no for now.

I thought 60% of MOGREPS were going for it.Paul Hudson said so too.

https://twitter.com/fergieweather

With ca. 60% of EC & 50% MOGREPS members offering colder E'rly into next 6-10d, UKMO lean towards this but with caution: may flip other way

Edited January 8, 2014 by winterof79

[Man With Beard]

Remember the day you woke up to a previously unmodelled easterly at T144 after weeks of Atlantic storms ... ah, that's today!!

 

It's so tempting to look ahead to T200+, since the child in some of us still dreams of a 1947, but it isn't worth it, is it, we can't really know?! The models are having enough difficulty with T144!

 

Building blocks are all in place at T96, can't imagine there will be a backtrack now. It's just a case of where the block is going to be and what will go under it. 

 

I suspect the following two GEFS members show some of the extremes of what could happen by T144:

 

One extreme - Block a bit weaker than most op runs; snow for the north, not quite cold enough further south

 

Other extreme; block further south, cold everywhere but few areas at threat from snow

 

This one could be really tasty, and it's not far off being the middle ground!

 

[LeeSnowFan]

I thought 60% of MOGREPS were going for it.Paul Hudson said so too.

Currently, around sixty percent of the solutions from the European (ECMWF) model suggest that cold air from the east will win the battle against the milder Atlantic air that has been with us for virtually the whole of winter so far.

 

For other models the percentage of cold solutions is around fifty percent.

[nick sussex]

Sorry to dampen the mood on here but apparently some of the models we don't see are still not on board. Just read this on twitter@EssexWeather: Exciting times! ECM, GFS onboard but MOGREPS and UKMO-G say no for now.

That's bizarre, the UKMO is fine tonight and MOGREPS well I don't see how that can be that different from the ECM ensembles, the evolution to an easterly begins really quite early in model terms.

 

In terms of on board that's one of those weird terms, are the UKMO waiting for like 90 percent support? The resolution of the operationals is the decider product here at the nearer timeframes and seeing as they all agree on the early evolution then unless theres a sudden shortwave trauma then its looking okay, of course you can never be certain with easterlies until closer in but at least for the trough disruption that looks nailed on.

Edited January 8, 2014 by nick sussex

[AWD]

I thought 60% of MOGREPS were going for it.Paul Hudson said so too.https://twitter.com/fergieweather

50% according to Ian;"With ca. 60% of EC & 50% MOGREPS members offering colder E'rly into next 6-10d, UKMO lean towards this but with caution: may flip other way"

[jvenge]

Fairly sure 50% and 60% is a lot in meteorological terms.

[bryan629]

This chart being dotted around 12z ECMWF anomalie (Stating Deal Sealed) I sincerely hope so.

 

yep , heres one just like it only from a different angle, certainly looking like blocking may hang on a bit longer than the ops suggest.

 

[bryan629]

50% according to Ian;

"With ca. 60% of EC & 50% MOGREPS members offering colder E'rly into next 6-10d, UKMO lean towards this but with caution: may flip other way"

this is what paul tweeted earlier on

 

Paul Hudson â€@Hudsonweather 55m

No I said on TV there's the potential for a cold easterly next week still though with real uncertainties

 

clearly just airing on the side of caution

Edited January 8, 2014 by bryan629

[That ECM]

One set of output and all is good. Four more to go IMO and then all systems are go. Get past Friday 12z's and then start looking for detail. Keep the theme going that's what is important.

[chiller]

Joe B thinking the change is on the way.  Lets hope so...

 

https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/420993211914391552/photo/1

[mulzy]

JMA pretty good at days 7 and 8.  The block looks solid at day 8 - like some of the other model output wish that low to the SW of the UK was a little further east.

 

 

[LomondSnowstorm]

After the initial amplification I struggle to see how you avoid at least some sort of easterly flow - I've only found 4 GEFS members who don't have some kind of easterly flow across the British Isles before +192. The main thing which goes wrong is the undercutting low is modelled as a dartboard, which means it doesn't disrupt, but that seems somewhat implausible given none of the ops have come up with anything similar and it is only 4-5 days out. A few are slower with the evolution like the GFS 6Z was but get there in the end, which might lead some who glance at it at, say, D6 to count it as a 'no' rather than simply being slightly delayed. The ECM ENS will be crucial but I'd be very surprised if MOGREPS wasn't at least broadly in line with the rest of the model suite (especially since the UKMO-G certainly appeared to be up to +144).

My view is that the operationals are the most crucial part here and it is really they who've lead the way - the GEFS had barely any cold members when the GFS op was having its usual turnaround phase 48 hours ago. However, the way these things often turn out we can't rest easy until we have as close to 100% agreement as possible and the easterly is no more than 4 days out.

[recklessabandon]

I am not sure I subscribe to the notion that this 'turnaround' in the models is as dramatic as one might think. The lowering of heights in northern Italy and the Adriatic is something that a number of suites have been hinting at over the past few days so I think something has been in evidence, perhaps last night the butterfly had one of it's wings clipped, though the proof will be where we are at in 7 days.

 

However, in my view, beyond the weekend, the weather pattern is still very uncertain, with the majority of the model forecasts suggesting a drop in temperature with the potential for sleet and snow on eastern facing aspects currently suggested as the most likely outcome, with predominantly dry conditions elsewhere.

 

 

[SW Saltire]

Firstly, tweets in recent winters have been quoted by both camps and have been proved wrong the next day. Mr Sussex seems sure that the UKMO 168 chart (seen in house so could IF elaborate later?) would be good. I trust his judgement. As has also been pointed out, what constitutes as 'not going for it' is this just op based? The reason I say that is the GFS ensembles do have milder members and yet the tweet states that model is for the easterly... I think MOGREPS will just have a split and thus being inconclusive.

Another great day for the coldies and the upgrades keep steadily flowing. Let's just keep perspective, enjoy the ride and remember to hold on tight!

EDIT: LS's post above is very valid IMO. I reckon the milder solutions on MOGREPS are for te same reason as the GFS with the 'bowling ball' low etc. Remember all OPS have been positive today

Edited January 8, 2014 by SW Saltire

[nick sussex]

I think people have to separate out what the UKMO will say publicly and what they think internally at their HQ, theres no point them making a big song and dance about it now.

 

With easterlies and indeed with any cold weather in the UK theres always a level of uncertainty but overall the trends are that way this evening.

 

I think we can blame the recent media for printing rubbish and over the top hysterical headlines, especially when even the word colder or easterly are mentioned! So perhaps they don't want the Daily Express printing yet more rubbish!

Edited January 8, 2014 by nick sussex

[weather eater]

Joe B thinking the change is on the way.  Lets hope so...

 

https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/420993211914391552/photo/1

Only because he's seen it on the models, same as the rest of us.

[mcweather]

I think people have to separate out what the UKMO will say publicly and what they think internally at their HQ, theres no point them making a big song and dance about it now.

 

With easterlies and indeed with any cold weather in the UK theres always a level of uncertainty but overall the trends are that way this evening.

 

I think we can blame the recent media for printing rubbish and over the top hysterical headlines, especially when even the word colder or easterly are mentioned! So perhaps they don't want the Daily Express printing yet more rubbish!

 

 

 

Very true Nick, the meto won't come on board publicly until they are 80% sure of an outcome they have a professional reputation to maintain unlike the Daily Express where the words professional and reputation are notable by their absence.

Edited January 8, 2014 by mcweather

[tinybill]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?mode=2&ech=204

 

 

looking on there  jan  i6  is  the  day  with  snow coming  off  the  north sea affecting  the  east coast  to at least  jan 20  at the moment

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

We could really do with Fergies input here im getting mixed messages!

[nick sussex]

In terms of the UKMO output at T144hrs yes it doesn't show an easterly at that precise time but I can't believe any UK forecaster at HQ won't say but if it verified it would likely show at worst trough disruption sending energy se towards the Med and a good chance of an easterly after that; Either the UKMO have just ditched their raw output and think its rogue or the Twittergate re UKMO G saying no was incorrect.

[The Eagle]

ECM 12z ensembles show this is far from a done deal. It verges on disappointing.