Model Output Discussion 1st January 2014-06z onwards.

[pages]

So then can tomorrow carry on where the 18z has left off- 18z Ensemble Mean is WELL back at 120 with split lows - Control is also good. Fingers crossed for this trend tomorrow- S

The ensemble mean means nothing with this much divergence. The gefs18z ensembles at just t144 are a joke there is everything;easterly with -10 uppers, zonal and even a greenie high' half expected when clicking between members to see image of the kitchen sink plastered over the UK.

[georgiedre]

Not long been in.....catching up....... Nice to see the 18z halt the rot somewhat. What an absolute nightmare this is turning out to be in terms of modelling. If I've interpreted Fergie's post earlier correctly, what transpires next week may have huge ramifications going forward....maybe due to some kind of tropospheric feedback mechanism? I thought this would be the case yesterday....blocking either becomes entrenched or it doesn't.

Fergie did say he would pop back in tonight with further information! Hopefully info we need for a cold period!

[weather eater]

 

 

Just shows the importance of timing upstream and the football low changing to oval can we get the elongated tomorrow? 

 

 

Now what was it I said at tea time,

"The Low pressure system being modelled to our west at 132hrs which was elongated in earlier runs allowing it to undercut in the way we want is now rather round, not good, but the likelihood is that its shape and track will continue to evolve over the next few days",

This really is the crucial factor for viewing the models, EVOLUTION, no matter what they are showing, even if that appears to be at a short range, whether good or bad for cold prospects, the synoptics will continue to evolve, every run, every day all year round.

Edited January 9, 2014 by weather eater

[Cheshire Freeze]

Just to add to my previous post....and possibly what the Metoffice have noted....there appears to be a theme in the longer range to fully pull the vortex out of Canada/Greenland. If we can get blocking established we COULD be looking at a special few weeks. It's just getting there first! We might not even get out of the starting blocks.

Edited January 9, 2014 by CreweCold

[Mucka]

GFS 18z ensembles central England (short - will update to long in about 15 mins)

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?x=261&y=82&run=18&runpara=0&type=0&ext=1

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?x=261&y=82&run=18&runpara=0&type=3&ext=1

 

Note, the mean down to -5 on the 17th. The lowest it got on the 12z was -2/3

Edited January 9, 2014 by Mucka

[Nick F]

London ECM op slightly warmer than the ens average, lot of colder members, not too much worry there -

http://www.weathercast.co.uk/services/ensemble-forecast.html

12z gfs much so at the warmer end too.

Edited January 9, 2014 by Nick F

[snowking]

Just to add to my previous post....and possibly what the Metoffice have noted....there appears to be a theme in the longer range to fully pull the vortex out of Canada/Greenland. If we can get blocking established we COULD be looking at a special few weeks. It's just getting there first! We might not even get out of the starting blocks.

Only time for a quick post but that ^^^Very noticeable trend over the last few runs (will have to check ensembles in the morning) - could co-incide with next wave 1 attack and if it does then it would be the best result possible for the UK. Last thing we want is a wave 1 displacement that displaces vorticity in to the AtlanticSK

[Cheshire Freeze]

Only time for a quick post but that ^^^Very noticeable trend over the last few runs (will have to check ensembles in the morning) - could co-incide with next wave 1 attack and if it does then it would be the best result possible for the UK. Last thing we want is a wave 1 displacement that displaces vorticity in to the AtlanticSK

 

Yes, the next vortex hit (should it occur) could open the possibilities of Greenland height rises?

[bluearmy]

ec 32 - looks very similar to tuesdays run.

[pages]

Please let the gfs 18z control run verify, heavy snow for the east at t192 with -8uppers, low pressure and strong easterly feed and now its raising pressure over greenie at same time, long cold spell. If only....

[SMU]

The ensemble mean means nothing with this much divergence. The gefs18z ensembles at just t144 are a joke there is everything;easterly with -10 uppers, zonal and even a greenie high' half expected when clicking between members to see image of the kitchen sink plastered over the UK.

 

They are indeed a joke but pro rata in the chaos so is the 12z.  However in the midst of the chaos the pattern has stepped back NW with more split in the flow.

 

Last one from me:

 

I think scanning through all the chaos today the key is the Greenland tip. ( as ever)

 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gem/runs/2014010912/gemnh-0-102.png?12

 

All models that get the secondary low up toward that tip ( which slows it down) allows for trough disruption.

 

If you look at the UKMO it slips the low off the coast sooner & it phases together -

 

Whats positive is all the models had the track of the low off the coast last week before correcting inland....

 

So that's it- an up & down sort of day-.  more of the same tomorrow.....

 

S

[Joe Levy]

ec 32 - looks very similar to tuesdays run.

I didn't catch any updates about it on Tuesday, as I was travelling. What does it show?

[snowking]

Yes, the next vortex hit (should it occur) could open the possibilities of Greenland height rises?

It may well end up all being linked but that would be my suspicion - certainly something within the realms of the GIN corridor and if we can get the tropospheric vortex somewhere towards the East of the meridian before the next suspected wave 1 hits later in the month then it certainly gives us the best chance of something like Greenland height rises going forwardSK

[UV-RAY]

Just to add to my previous post....and possibly what the Metoffice have noted....there appears to be a theme in the longer range to fully pull the vortex out of Canada/Greenland. If we can get blocking established we COULD be looking at a special few weeks. It's just getting there first! We might not even get out of the starting blocks.

This is what I was alluding to in the moaning thread, I think the Atlantic will continue to influence events for the next few weeks, whilst the PV goes on its jollies. Thereafter the window of opportunity will hopefully be grasped.

[bryan629]

Only time for a quick post but that ^^^Very noticeable trend over the last few runs (will have to check ensembles in the morning) - could co-incide with next wave 1 attack and if it does then it would be the best result possible for the UK. Last thing we want is a wave 1 displacement that displaces vorticity in to the AtlanticSK

kriss... ive been wondering all night about the strat wave one and how it might effect things lower down...now with that huge explosion out of the sun 2 hours ago (CME).would that have effect on the atmosphere in metriological term in the near future ?

Edited January 9, 2014 by bryan629

[mickpips]

Based on yesterday afternoon outputs vs todays afternoon ( 12z ) outputs there is no doubt this forum has gone from hysteria to general disappointment , and why ... purely based on the fact the model output reverted from a continuation theme of endless W/SW lows swinging in from the Atlantic and battering the UK to overwhelming model support for a full blown easterly with 850's allowing 'potential' snowfall countrywide .... 24 hours later there's been a general swing back to where we were , albeit admittedly not completely.. back to a westerly / Atlantic dominated influence upon the UK ... so why do we have double figure pages of disappointment comments  ?IMO , if you filter out the comments from users with thousands of posts that mean completely nothing ( i agree and see the frustration of the admins of this site ) you can read the potential of the model output and conclude the uncertainty , as previously I quoted our local 'independent ex-met forecasters' as stating , we are potentially looking at a 2-3 day 'colder' setup next week with a NE/SW bias . Drawing a 'middle ground' from all model output , anyone would agree with today's MET longer range forecast surely ? Too many lookers for cold became convinced once yesterdays outputs agreed somewhat on a T+144 output of a NE building high that we were looking at a locked in cold and snowy outlook  ... never conclude from model agreement and urge on the side of caution, especially when the UK MET are in disagreement , hence todays updates , they wern't convinced and so the forthcoming output showed the uncertainty.Nobody can say with any certainty this wont change back again to a sinking / undercutting low tomorrow across all model output bringing a locked in Easterly regime but i still go along with the 2/3 day snowy potential for the NE Northwards midweek next week as is with MET longer range 

[pages]

The ensemble mean means nothing with this much divergence. The gefs18z ensembles at just t144 are a joke there is everything;easterly with -10 uppers, zonal and even a greenie high' half expected when clicking between members to see image of the kitchen sink plastered over the UK.

Steve the control run is not just good it's fantastic, we keep the easterly feed throughout and towards end of the run the high is backing nw and the vortex is off to Siberia.

[Captain Shortwave]

Well the gfs control run is wintry all the way till the end. Hopefully more of these will pop up tomorrow

[Cheshire Freeze]

It may well end up all being linked but that would be my suspicion - certainly something within the realms of the GIN corridor and if we can get the tropospheric vortex somewhere towards the East of the meridian before the next suspected wave 1 hits later in the month then it certainly gives us the best chance of something like Greenland height rises going forwardSK

 

Cheers, pretty much my thoughts too.

Steve the control run is not just good it's fantastic, we keep the easterly feed throughout and towards end of the run the high is backing nw and the vortex is off to Siberia.

 

......see mine and Kris's convo above. A decent trend if it can manifest.

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

BIG flip towards cold on the 18z ensemble suite.

Interesting! @D

[Downpour]

Based on yesterday afternoon outputs vs todays afternoon ( 12z ) outputs there is no doubt this forum has gone from hysteria to general disappointment , and why ... purely based on the fact the model output reverted from a continuation theme of endless W/SW lows swinging in from the Atlantic and battering the UK to overwhelming model support for a full blown easterly with 850's allowing 'potential' snowfall countrywide .... 24 hours later there's been a general swing back to where we were , albeit admittedly not completely.. back to a westerly / Atlantic dominated influence upon the UK ... so why do we have double figure pages of disappointment comments  ?IMO , if you filter out the comments from users with thousands of posts that mean completely nothing ( i agree and see the frustration of the admins of this site ) you can read the potential of the model output and conclude the uncertainty , as previously I quoted our local 'independent ex-met forecasters' as stating , we are potentially looking at a 2-3 day 'colder' setup next week with a NE/SW bias . Drawing a 'middle ground' from all model output , anyone would agree with today's MET longer range forecast surely ? Too many lookers for cold became convinced once yesterdays outputs agreed somewhat on a T+144 output of a NE building high that we were looking at a locked in cold and snowy outlook  ... never conclude from model agreement and urge on the side of caution, especially when the UK MET are in disagreement , hence todays updates , they wern't convinced and so the forthcoming output showed the uncertainty.Nobody can say with any certainty this wont change back again to a sinking / undercutting low tomorrow across all model output bringing a locked in Easterly regime but i still go along with the 2/3 day snowy potential for the NE Northwards midweek next week as is with MET longer range

We shall hang our heads in shame

[john pike]

 

london ensembles

 

scatter on the 15th so take your pick after

 

but look how dry these look barring the 15th

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

The jet stream still looks like taking a nose dive South this time next week. It just depends if we can get some blocking established to the North to set us up for longer term cold into February.

[Richie V]

Am I the only one here that does'nt want cold...?

I'm having an epic winter for growing my spruce, firs and pines, they love this weather. Record high sales thus far for the winter (3500 trees sold since oct 25.) Compared with 300 or so in the last four cold winters. I for one wish to keep a south of west zonal flow and pray the PV dont slip round to siberia.

[rich1974]

Am I the only one here that does'nt want cold...?I'm having an epic winter for growing my spruce, firs and pines, they love this weather. Record high sales thus far for the winter (3500 trees sold since oct 25.) Compared with 300 or so in the last four cold winters. I for one wish to keep a south of west zonal flow and pray the PV dont slip round to siberia.

I'm with you on this, can't understand why people want cold weather.