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Model Output Discussion 1st January 2014-06z onwards.


phil nw.

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Posted
  • Location: Cardiff, Wales
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunder & Lightning, Thundersnow, Storms, Heatwave
  • Location: Cardiff, Wales

 It's actually GloSea5 now (introduced last year) - just to be a pedant ;-)

Are you able to say any more info about what it may be showing for later in the month/feb yet Ian? Cheers

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Posted
  • Location: Worcestershire/Warwickshire/North Oxfordshire
  • Location: Worcestershire/Warwickshire/North Oxfordshire

 MOGREPS seems fairly well programmed.  Shame we don't get to see it.

What makes you say that?

 

It's just another tool which may be completely wrong. All the models could be wrong.

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Posted
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset

Sir Nick of Sussex as per usual nailing the day's general output very well indeed.

 

Odds are still on a trough disruption enough to drop energy down close by SE'wards. I also suspect that the following 'football shaped' low being progged will not end up as quite as such and we will see further disruption which will help continue to drop heights to our South.

 

Notably, despite the less favourable charts today, one over-riding theme is that the Scandi high remains intact and the Atlantic quietens down so with that in mind I can live with the the ECM 12z take on FI. Let's face it we are unlikely to see another OP run bring in quite such warm 850's in January with such a favourable NH pattern in place (ever!?). Yep I'm sure I've just jinxed that.

 

One other constant is the Azores high as well, lurking away to our SW. I get a feeling that it will end up playing a prime role in where this is all heading, but will it be a goodie or a badie??

 

In general terms it is worth remembering that nothing has really changed in the past 24 hours and just as I posted yesterday, the bottom line is we would have to consider ourselves unlucky to miss out on a cold spell with this current setup but of course it is clear to see that that possibility does exist.

 

A wild card for me is the Irish Met whom I have always found to be very astute, they are going for Easterlies (albeit not raging ones) so that bodes well on more than one level for us in the UK to my mind.

Edited by s4lancia
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So up up up & away on another GFS run.

 

 

I thing I have noticed In the last 2 years that I haven't really shared is DAILY there within the model suite there is one clear trend, which then changes the next day to something else within the models.

 

Yesterday it was trending towards an undercutter, today the trending was a deeper low & stronger atlantic.

What will tomorrow bring>?.......

 

 

Sadly its the Scandi high shortwave that causes the issue here- but seems to have gone un-noticed- it reminds me of a few years ago when the forum was going crazy at deep Easterlies- then the UKMO 144 popped up & this shortwave appeared at the southern tip of Norway & boom it was all over-

Because this has appeared again today Here

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014010912/ECM1-120.GIF?09-0  ( SW tip of Norway)

 

Its stopping the SW flow of the scandi high- The same Scandi high that yesterday was exerting a westward force on the Atlantic low causing it to disrupt & go under.

 

That the reason it gone pear shape today.,

 

I guess we are lucky that the pattern hasn't gone to pot & the ECM continues to show the possibility of the scandi High lurking around for a while possible becoming a feature again down the line.

 

If this winter is gonna get going it needs to soon, so this evolution is a key part of kick starting winter-

lets hope tomorrows trend is a better one.

 

Confidence in ECM, UKMO, GFS blend 75%

Confidence in GEM     25%

 

 

regards

Steve

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Posted
  • Location: West Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, Snowy winters.
  • Location: West Dorset

The jet stream doesn`t get any more southerly than this. I presume this must be due to all the high pressure around Europe. Could the jet be our friend for once and help drag some colder air down to us?

 

Posted Image

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Posted
  • Location: Santry, Dublin, Ireland. 50 metres ASL.
  • Location: Santry, Dublin, Ireland. 50 metres ASL.

What is it we tell all the newbies in here? Oh yeah… Stop commenting on the run so early!!! Posted Image 

First time in all my years here, I've been able to criticise SM!!!

Anyway, well spotted… Absolutely fascinating, and for sure, the most difficult pattern for the NWP to handle in our locality, year after year!

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Posted
  • Location: Manhattan, USA
  • Location: Manhattan, USA

 

Lets hope for a good 18Z - I don't think next week is set in stone yet, far from it. Trough dist is a good sign to start with /opfc/atm/mogreps-uk/prods/201412.file/prods_op_mogreps-uk_201412_21_

 

Not much change yet,

 

Posted Image

 

Low slightly more stretched.

Edited by Glenn W
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Posted
  • Location: Dublin, ireland
  • Weather Preferences: Snow , thunderstorms and wind
  • Location: Dublin, ireland

Slight improvement at t84.

Atlantic low tilting slightly more west and south easterly more pronounced over Iceland.

post-2637-0-33844000-1389304910_thumb.pn

Edited by John Cox
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Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

yeah even at day 4 the GFS is going down a completely different route here.

Posted Image

Previous run

Posted Image

Who knows where this will end up

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Posted
  • Location: Dover. Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, sun, thunder, storms, frosts, summer heatwaves.
  • Location: Dover. Kent

Looks like a better run at 96, dare I say it trending slightly more GEMish? 

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Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex

At 102, looking very different already to the 12z.  Hopefully a good sign?

 

18z

 

Posted Image

 

12z

 

Posted Image

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http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014010918/gfsnh-0-102.png?18

 

this run WILL be different-

 

All the models so for have taken the low upwards then stall it before it gets sucked west & phases into a deeper low to our west @ 144-

 

The GFS 102 is different because the first low misses the phasing ( timing different) & moves on through SE....

 

expectation is no deep low @ 144

 

S

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Posted
  • Location: Mid Welsh/English Border
  • Weather Preferences: Snow! Exciting weather!
  • Location: Mid Welsh/English Border

also slightly more of an elongated center to the lp

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Posted
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl

yeah even at day 4 the GFS is going down a completely different route here.

 

Previous run

 

Who knows where this will end up

 

The upstream differences between those 2 runs is staggering.

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Posted
  • Location: Dublin-Ireland...Rome, Italy
  • Location: Dublin-Ireland...Rome, Italy

LP completely different compared to 12z run, northern blocking completely different, the models don't have a clue

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Posted
  • Location: Cardiff/Reading Uni
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Sun, Heat, Cold,T/storms via Spanish plumes *rare*
  • Location: Cardiff/Reading Uni

A much better 18z compared to the 12z with a flatter, less round low approachingm can it go under without phasing with the low to the SW of Greenland? 

Posted Image

Edited by Panayiotis
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Posted
  • Location: West Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, Snowy winters.
  • Location: West Dorset

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014010918/gfsnh-0-102.png?18

 

this run WILL be different-

 

All the models so for have taken the low upwards then stall it before it gets sucked west & phases into a deeper low to our west @ 144-

 

The GFS 102 is different because the first low misses the phasing ( timing different) & moves on through SE....

 

expectation is no deep low @ 144

 

S

edging to the more fluid GEM then...

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Posted
  • Location: Cardiff/Reading Uni
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Sun, Heat, Cold,T/storms via Spanish plumes *rare*
  • Location: Cardiff/Reading Uni

I dont think the low will phase now, its being pulled apart by the Azores ridging up from the south @120hrs...

Posted Image

Edited by Panayiotis
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Posted
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset

The upstream differences between those 2 runs is staggering.

 

I know! Posted Image This is building up to be one of the most fascinating periods of model watching for quite a while

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