Model Output Discussion 1st January 2014-06z onwards.

[bradymk]

ECM ends with a quiet atlantic and winds start to switch more easterly/South easterly due to the low pressure in the med moving eastwards towards Italy. Although uppers are mild, surface flow would be rather chilly with rather low temperatures. On another note, today was the first full day without a weather warning for 6 weeks, remarkable!

Edited January 9, 2014 by bradythemole

[Mucka]

You really couldn't make it up, displaced Azores high, block to the ne and yet someone ran over a black cat and the models want to dish this up! Very bizarre and how you get from the ECM120hrs to the 144hrs with zero trough disruption and football low!

 

The upstream pattern and block to the ne should be a lock in cold set up but somehow the models aren't listening.

 

That has me scratching my head and if it was a one off I would say it  must be wrong but it is across the models. 

It is throwing a ridge ahead of it and meeting a block to the NE so it should disrupt and obviously others feel the same way so it is quite puzzling.

I suppose the Azores ridge must stop it and force energy more E than SE into the block causing a temporary stalemate before the low is forced South but the Azores ridge doesn't look strong enough for that to occur. Naturally if we can just get some disruption and energy going under then the block will in turn be further NW and things would look much better.

[nick sussex]

Maybe the weather will though Nick

 

Why are the lows not distributing and going under the block? 

The shape tells you what they're likely to do and the football shape is not good, if that low to the west was more elongated or at least oval then it would disrupt towards the Med, the ECM eventually gets to an easterly but by that time I gave up caring either way!

 

Put it this way if the UK can't get some cold out of the block to the ne  and expected pattern upstream then really that would be quite unbelievable!

[Tim Bland]

I think the ECM 240hrs has potential

[That ECM]

http://images.meteociel.fr/im/9717/ECH1-240_lmp6.GIF

http://images.meteociel.fr/im/2727/ECH0-240_mqg3.GIF

Let's be honest if you saw the first chart would you put these 850s with it? I understand why but!!

[Weather-history]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014010912/ECM1-216.GIF?09-0 Lots of low heights into Iberia at T216 and SE winds picking up over the UK....

That would be a very interesting chart in a few months time. Hot and potentially thundery but at this time of the year....

[R.P. McMurphy]

if anyone posts that the T240 ecm shows potential ..................................

 

Depends what your looking for or how you are defining "potential"...

 

If its a VB track, and warm winds are your thing, it's got great potential.

[Long haul to mild]

Seeing the Atlantic that quiet on the ECM, and low heights to the South still encourages me. Yes, the uppers aren't brilliant but I have seen enough from all the models tonight that suggest we are at the beginning of a very interesting period of weather.

 

A few tweaks here and there will change everything; yes, we may have taken a couple of steps back today but not seeing a continual zonal train is a refreshing change and one that creates many possibilities.

Edited January 9, 2014 by Chalk Serpent

[Captain Shortwave]

That would be a very interesting chart in a few months time. Hot and potentially thundery but at this time of the year....

I would be doing a merry jig if it was July, couldn't get much better than that. 

[Mucka]

http://images.meteociel.fr/im/9717/ECH1-240_lmp6.GIFhttp://images.meteociel.fr/im/2727/ECH0-240_mqg3.GIFLet's be honest if you saw the first chart would you put these 850s with it? I understand why but!!

 

That's another part of the output that has me wondering. From 192 to 240 the Easterly flow strengthens but the cold air gets further away?

[OldMetMan]

Almost to be expected, backtracking from the models today, with even the GEM producing only a weakish cyclonic easterly.

I have to say that the evolution depicted by the GFS in particular next week does not, to my mind, follow from where we are now. Yes, I know of the problems in modelling developing blocking patterns of this kind, but, as I mentioned yesterday, there are some significant signals for a block developing at the moment.

The 500mb pattern is revealing:

1. We already have a 500mb high cell to the N, admittedly not very strong.

2. Trough disruption has already occurred to our W and, as I said yesterday, the main vortex action is now over the Atlantic and gives every indication, by its orientation and location, that it will move and extend SE under the high cell. There are greater heights E of the disrupted trough that could quite easily link to the high cell,

Apart from that, the most potent signal is the cold air pooling and starting to spread SW over Scandinavia. Very low thickness values are involved here, plenty cold enough to encourage significant pressure rises.

As is quite often the case, this could easily turn into the forecaster's nightmare scenario - Atlantic versus Continental - and at this stage it's impossible to tell if this is likely, even harder to know which would win. But I still favour the blocking developing. Future runs will most likely flip-flop for some time yet but I would add that, historically, major blocking can develop very quickly, in a couple of days even, in this situation and I doubt the models could accurately pick up on that more than a few days ahead.

I said yesterday not to underestimate the Atlantic jet but we are seriously overdue a lull and a weakening of the Atlantic flow, quite apart from what I said above.

This is going to be a fascinating few days to see how the models handle the situation.

Edited January 9, 2014 by OldMetMan

[fergieweather]

I must be one of what seems to be too few members who is finding the evolution of this pattern fascinating

You are not alone! Plus colleagues at UKMO who just expressed same views! The next few days/weeks will, rest assured, prove utterly compelling viewing meteorologically and with potential for further critical developments later Jan-Feb.

[winterof79]

Well it seems the middle of next week is the tipping point,and how the trough reacts

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014010912/ECH1-144.GIF?09-0

There is no clear direction until this is resolved from that date

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Manchester_ens.png

Hence Paul Hudson saying 50/50 for cold later next week on Look North.

[TSNWK]

You are not alone! Plus colleagues at UKMO who just expressed same views! The next few days/weeks will, rest assured, prove utterly compelling viewing meteorologically and with potential for further critical developments later Jan-Feb.

Me thinks that might be a cheeky little hint of SWW event, just saying Edited January 9, 2014 by TSNWK

[Paul White.]

 

Well after yet another trip up the garden path from the Easterly-Con-Merchant is this a victory for the GFS as it never really entertained the idea?

No because the charts have not verified yet. If I remember in ten days time I will try to answer that question. Hope that helps.

[nick sussex]

For everyone whose close to throwing their computer out of the window, myself included there is one big difference between this drama and previous easterly dramas and that is that the upstream pattern is not shutting the door on further developments.

 

In past easterly implosions its often been the case of either the easterly verifies quickly or the Atlantic will just roll in and that's the end of that, often its been down to a shortwave calamity however here the signal remains for the blocking and the upstream pattern still keeps the window open.

 

Historically if you get the block in place then the pattern is backed west and south, overall I think the easterly remains a good chance regardless of whether the modelling is determined to try and throw in every possible drama.

[Jason M]

I note tonight the conflicting posts about the Ensemble suites. For lurkers I suspect that this is because the Synoptics look very good on some of them, but the associated upper air temps are not very cold. In essence if the ensembles are being viewed as they often are using the 850 plots they don't look very cold, whereas the charts themselves look epic but actually aren't really.

The reason for the above is that there is very limited cold pooling to our east after weeks on end of mild air on the near continent. To get at the cold stuff the wind direction will need a northerly component. Even flow from a few degrees north of east will suffice. A straight easterly or a south easterly is probably no good.

In terms of battleground scenarios its true that snow can fall with uppers of just below zero. This doesn't apply next week though because this usually requires entrained cold air. We don't have this.

Going forward things look better IMHO but we are better of waiting a but longer tbh as no point in having an easterly with no cold uppers. In a week or so time things could be much more favourable.

Lastly the pattern next week could potentially drop huge amounts of rain. That will need watching carefully given the current state of play.

Edited January 9, 2014 by Jason M

[lassie23]

Me thinks that might be a cheeky little hint of SWW event, just saying

I  think that a cold spell will eventually be upon us no matter how many times the models change their minds and I have heard a whisper of a sudden stratospheric warming event happening too, which was not on the cards a couple of days ago. Does anybody know where this news of a SSW has come from?

[cooling climate]

You are not alone! Plus colleagues at UKMO who just expressed same views! The next few days/weeks will, rest assured, prove utterly compelling viewing meteorologically and with potential for further critical developments later Jan-Feb.

You are a tease lol. SSW say no more.

I think most on here are intrigued by the up and coming pattern evolving even if it does not

bring what they want its just that every now and then its hard not to let a little imby type

thinking spill over onto the thread.

[recklessabandon]

Ensembles for central Europe suggest ops at the moment on the high side of the mean, significant spread after T120 so still could go either way for the north Italian low, GFS hasn't dropped it that's for sure. Massive uncertainty still.

 

PS, if you want a laugh, check out T240 pressure ens for Moscow, then you will see real uncertainty!!!

[mcweather]

You are not alone! Plus colleagues at UKMO who just expressed same views! The next few days/weeks will, rest assured, prove utterly compelling viewing meteorologically and with potential for further critical developments later Jan-Feb.

 

 Hi Fergie

 

Utterly compelling as in oh look at how powerful the jet is and look at these amazing floods

 

or

 

Utterly compelling as in crikey look at those minus ten uppers and stalling fronts over the southwest.

 

go on you know want to tell us really

 

ps thanks as always for your input

Edited January 9, 2014 by mcweather

[ANYWEATHER]

You are not alone! Plus colleagues at UKMO who just expressed same views! The next few days/weeks will, rest assured, prove utterly compelling viewing meteorologically and with potential for further critical developments later Jan-Feb.

Yes indeed! But of course some members on here finding the model output Depressing  at the moment rather than Fascinating! Lots of ups and downs in the near future, but as you say compelling viewing.....  

Edited January 9, 2014 by ANYWEATHER

[Kentish Snowman in Yorks]

 Hi Fergie

 

Utterly compelling as in oh look at how powerful the jet is and look at these amazing floods

 

or

 

Utterly compelling as in crikey look at those minus ten uppers and stalling fronts over the southwest.

 

go on you know want to tell us really

 

ps thanks as always for your input

 

Utterly compelling because come 

this time next week the UK could be facing either scenario!

 

That Shannon Entropy is back with a vengance and this time she means business!

 

Seriously you only need look at the GEFS to see  how difficult the next seven days is to predict...

[Stuie]

Are we saying FI is 120 with regards to the low in the Atlantic and how it progresses? 

 

The ECM and GEFS are pretty similar past 120 with the low though (sinking south)

[Purga]

Not a bad set of ENS for London really showing surface temps & snow risk evident amongst all this uncertainty!

 

http://www.meteociel.com/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?x=306&y=141&run=12&ville=Londres&runpara=0&type=3&ext=1

 

No need for despondency.