Model Output Discussion 1st January 2014-06z onwards.

[Catacol]

As others have pointed out in last few days it may take more than 1 attempt before we get widespread cold in UK.The models don't seem quite as good to me as yesterday evening but there is still potential in the Longer Term.If I was a betting man, I would say Northern England Northwards will have cold enough temperatures for snow from Tuesday and as time goes by these temps will fall further South possibly by 20th.To me we need embedded cold for a few days and higher heights in Scandi.That's my take on things and more to do with years gone by as much as what models show.At least we are in the ball game from a cold perspective and amazing how things can change so quickly.This time last week there was a lot of despair in this forum.Now there is hope.

 

I like this post. I will reiterate that there is a lot of warmth around at the moment, and we will not get a lot of lowland snow in the south from marginal setups next week at the first attempt - at least not in my opinion. However if next week can see colder air shift into Scandy and Western Europe then a second shot later in the month may well deliver the goods. 100hPa strat forecasts this morning continue to show a signal for troughing south into Europe - that is absolutely crucial if we are to see any properly cold air advect westwards - but we need to be a bit patient.

Edited January 9, 2014 by Catacol_Highlander

[Ali1977]

I wonder if the high coming from the Azores is the key factor in prolonging, or even bringing cold to the UK, maybe if that can head up into Greenland, or even West of Greenland it will aid more blocking..A few ens are showing this happening, maybe bringing a Northerly after the Easterly.

That look like a no!!! Drawing board...

Edited January 9, 2014 by Ali1977

[ITSY]

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/runs/2014010906/graphe3_1000_312_105___.gifThe GFS high res Suite for Cambridge. Not the most promising!

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

A lot it seems to me is riding on the LP disrupting and sliding SSE, only GEM is really clean UKMO doesn't seem to want it.  I have to say one feels 'safer' with the UKMO model on board so lets see where that goes over next couple of days.  Whenever one sees LP to our WNW it is always a concern whether a block will advance west. 

 

 

 

A positive I'll put on this t144 chart from UKMO is the trough over Italy....move that on 48hrs and I think we'd see a slider there as the LP to our west would get 'attracted' to that location I would think as its the place of minimal resistance

 

BFTP

Edited January 9, 2014 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[Summer Sun]

GFS 06z 8 day temperature anomaly isn't as cold for the south than the 00z was, Scandinavia is certainly getting cold rapidly 

 

 

Normal 2m temps left expected 2m temps right

 

[EML Network]

Whilst ot taking any one or indeed two runs at face value I am seeing a general trend or pattern beginning to show up in relation to next week.

 

And that is for High Pressure over the Azores to link up with High Pressure over Scandinavia, flatten out and sink, with warmer westerly's running over the top and across the whole of the UK.

 

something a bit like this > and I do appreciate that this is 10 days away, but it's a general theme I am seeing across lots of different models.

 

Something which I was told yesterday ''would never happen'' , so we'll see won't we !

 

 

 

If I were to put a bet on, I would suggest that we won't get a cold spell of weather such as what was being modelled over the past few ECM runs and that the cold will stay out to our East, as is so often the case.

 

Howver, I wouldn't be suprised to see a ''reload'' from the North followed by a North Easterly. IMO if we are to see a sustained cold spell this Winter is going to start by coming from the North and progressing into a NE'sterly.

[frosty ground]

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/runs/2014010906/graphe3_1000_312_105___.gifThe GFS high res Suite for Cambridge. Not the most promising!

A lot of the colder runs have gone completely of the ensembles

[Jason T]

Well the way i see it, Most of the Models show cold scenarios which is a Big Bonus,Fine tuning is always the way for us here in the UK, Cold is now in to Most parts of Europe "Big Plus". Temps are now on the decline and colder by the weekend, I think some more eye opening output is still to come, Any Easterly has Hopefully  just been delayed.

 

Edited January 9, 2014 by Jason T

[supernova]

IF the UK does go into the cold air can we all remember one VITAL thing, that is for those discussing will it won't it snow in my back garden at extended time frames. By extended I mean ANYTHING beyond about 24h. Think back to summer rainfall, how accurate for amount, timing and places was any model at 24h let alone discussing it at 120h or more? Rainfall needs essentially only one variable compared to the 7 or 8 to get snow. Please remember this before arguing about one item or another with one another.

I have lost count how many times I urge caution re snow predictions beyond, sometimes even less than 24h EVERY single winter. 

Quite right John and even when we're at that stage this thread isn't the place for IMBYism anyway. Or this, which is what some of last night's posts might have led us to believe was imminent... http://www.wimp.com/antarcticaweather/ Glad we've cleared that up then (sorry Mods). More appropriately, despite an Eastwards retrenchment of the cold in the overnight model runs there's still an excellent chance of seeing our first shot of winter next week and I was very encouraged to see SnowBallz and Fergieweather's subtle hints at something brewing in the Strat last night -  might be reading too much into their little tease but I hope not. Would be interested to understand the general potential for convective snow showers on the East Coast if the models play out as currently progged…synoptics look generally favourable to me assuming an Easterly does in fact arrive?

[Ali1977]

Disappointing morning, I think Ian Fs caution with this cold spell was correct. I can't see any back track towards the GEM. If the GEM is correct, massive egg on face for the rest of the models.

Has this ever happened before??

[The Eagle]

No. Unfortunately. 

 

 

It's a little disappointing (though I have a soft spot for the ECM ensembles this morning) overall but that's just the way the cookie crumbles sometimes. 

 

 

All we can do now is hope for some reversion later on and progress toward a more sustainable blocking scenario and better undercutting. Still plenty of time. It can change for the better just as easily. You always get wobbles like this.

Edited January 9, 2014 by The Eagle

[jvenge]

Disappointing morning, I think Ian Fs caution with this cold spell was correct. I can't see any back track towards the GEM. If the GEM is correct, massive egg on face for the rest of the models.Has this ever happened before??

The GEM being right while the others say no? Probably. I'm sure someone here will have w chart to show it.Does it happen often? No. You can link the euro outputs to an extent, and obviously GFS completely flipped once this week already. Fairly meaningless though. Come 6pm I wouldn't be at all surprised to see another complete turn around. Then another tomorrow :-) its practically happened every day here this week.

[lassie23]

We should not get carried away until we have cross model agreement. We have agreement that it will get colder, the rest is if but and maybe scenarios. Easterlies can vanish as quickly as they arrive on models.

[johnholmes]

Just to cheer all you coldies up, have a look at the latest Met O 6-15 day outlook!

[phil nw.]

An overview as i see things from the overnight runs.

As expected the onset of a solid easterly flow is still uncertain but it is likely that we will see a Scandinavian block exerting some influence on our weather next week.

The latest modeling continues to show the jet fragmenting near the UK as it comes against the building heights to our ne slowing progress of the approaching Atlantic lows.

We can see this on the latest fax at T84hrs.Alongside we can view the 500hPa pattern at T120hrs which indicates the disruption of low pressure or trough se towards the continent.

 

 

It's from around this point around the 14th where temperatures are expected to drop as we pick up a continental influence.

London Ens graph

 

Looking further ahead and taking the ECM mean we can view the westward drift of that cold block of 850hPa air over Scandinavia at T168hrs.

 

 

so getting colder next week with slow moving frontal systems likely to bring rain and possibly some snow further north probably more likely over higher ground.

 

A full on long fetch easterly is not yet on the horizon which leaves the core of the coldest air just modeled tantalisingly away to our ne.

To get that cold here we need lower heights to develop over the continent,somewhere around the Alps or N.Italy whilst that block is holding to our ne.At present we look like being on the very margins of this colder pattern.

 

Looking at the T240hrs Ens means indicates there is a relatively brief window for this cold to build

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014010900/EDH1-240.GIF?09-12

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/run/gensnh-21-1-240.png?6

 

signs of the Atlantic moving back in as those heights to the ne fade away.

Edited January 9, 2014 by phil nw.

[Jo Farrow]

Just to cheer all you coldies up, have a look at the latest Met O 6-15 day outlook!

And to answer your earlier Q John, trend being 10-15 days, short lived cold

MO says "All output then does agree later in the period for a return to more mobility in the trend period, biased this time to the NW." 

[UV-RAY]

 

And to answer your earlier Q John, trend being 10-15 days, short lived cold

MO says "All output then does agree later in the period for a return to more mobility in the trend period, biased this time to the NW." 

 

Lol, we've just wasted 72 hours of chasing phantom easterlies, again. Looks like the MetO cautionary approach was fully justified with the majority of the UK just seeing a colder but still a wet week and then the prospects of more unsettled but milder weather. Roll on spring!

Edited January 9, 2014 by Sceptical Inquirer

[Pennine Ten Foot Drifts]

I couldn't agree more with those that are saying this is hardly 'all over'. Taking the four main models, the overall pattern is clear to see, pretty strong high pressure to our north and east, and a general direction for low pressure systems of NW to SE towards southern Europe. In other words, a pretty classic set up for colder UK weather. To illustrate:

GFS:

Clear pattern for high pressure to hold and strengthen to our north and east, low pressure to move steadily more south eastwards towards France/Med

ECM surprisingly similar.

UKMO only goes to T144, but I agree with BFTP, the most likely course for the key Atlantic depression to take is towards the already lower pressure over southern Europe/Med

Finally GEM, most bullish of all with regards to this evolution:

And assuming this predicted pattern does come to fruition then what happens afterwards is almost impossible to predict, and in terms of 'building blocks for cold' is a pretty good starting point.

(Mods - not sure why I've got these 'Attached Thubmnails' at the bottom of the post ? I can't seem to be able to hide them ?)

Edited January 9, 2014 by Pennine Ten Foot Drifts

[bluearmy]

and there i was thinking that the signal beyond the colder period remained uncertain. seems that mogreps-15 must be keener on the jet blasting back through than ecm ens. i would remain on the fence on this although i appreciate that the pros have to make a forecast.as far as next week is concerned, the pendulum is swinging. still to find consistency on the split of the jet. once we get some consistency on the pendulum swing we can put on our muffs and wellys or throw our toys out of the pram. its too early to know which yet.interesting article on weatherbell re the ec32 runs and their poor early modelling in the runs which may be skewing the later part of the run into being too flat.

[shedhead]

Lol, we've just wasted 72 hours of chasing phantom easterlies, again. Looks like the MetO cautionary approach was fully justified with the majority of the UK just seeing a colder but still a wet week and then the prospects of more unsettled but milder weather. Roll on spring!

Come on SI, most unlike you to throw the metaphorical towel into the ring.  Just think where we were this time last week, with the only chance of snow being on the summit of Ben Nevis for 10 mins overnight. The first bite at the cold cherry always looked to be a bit iffy, but at least it's going to turn colder and the pattern at T+144hrs is more than acceptable if we're prepared to be a little more patient.

 

And yes before anyone asks...I am feeling OK

 

[UV-RAY]

Come on SI, most unlike you to throw the metaphorical towel into the ring.  Just think where we were this time last week, with the only chance of snow being on the summit of Ben Nevis for 10 mins overnight. The first bite at the cold cherry always looked to be a bit iffy, but at least it's going to turn colder and the pattern at T+144hrs is more than acceptable if we're prepared to be a little more patient.

 

And yes before anyone asks...I am feeling OK

 

It's frustrating but to be honest I was expecting this go the way of the pear, yes we have a strong block to our NE and lowering heights over the Med but we still need heights to build towards Greenland for anything sustained and for that we have to rely on a SSW, which may or may not  happen and even if it does we still need some luck for it to fall into a favourable position. 

Edited January 9, 2014 by Sceptical Inquirer

[phil nw.]

Can we keep general comments to the correct threads please all.

Some posts have had to be deleted already.

Remember model discussions only here-moans etc to the other thread.

Thankyou.

[Troubleatmill]

I couldn't agree more with those that are saying this is hardly 'all over'. Taking the four main models, the overall pattern is clear to see, pretty strong high pressure to our north and east, and a general direction for low pressure systems of NW to SE towards southern Europe. In other words, a pretty classic set up for colder UK weather. To illustrate:

GFS:

GFS1201.png GFS1441.png GFS1681.png

Clear pattern for high pressure to hold and strengthen to our north and east, low pressure to move steadily more south eastwards towards France/Med

Recm1201.gif Recm1441.gif Recm1681.gif

ECM surprisingly similar.

Rukm1201.gifRukm1441.gif

UKMO only goes to T144, but I agree with BFTP, the most likely course for the key Atlantic depression to take is towards the already lower pressure over southern Europe/Med

Finally GEM, most bullish of all with regards to this evolution:

Rgem1201.gif Rgem1441.gif Rgem1681.gif

And assuming this predicted pattern does come to fruition then what happens afterwards is almost impossible to predict, and in terms of 'building blocks for cold' is a pretty good starting point.

 

Yep, never learn (me included) that these are models trying to predict the fucture, its so hard not to get carried away with runs like we had yesterday (not changed that much by the way). Nothing is decided whatever your preference.Dont think hype helps sometime though, as we wait so long for a cold period that when ones shows we go a tad overboard on expectations.

 

Cold conditions were/are on the whole expected to be affecting us 7 days from today, not this weekend. and seven days is an eternity for the models to swap and change. Prety sure other long term posters have learnt not to get hung on or feed out to friends and family that a new ice age is on the way because of a few good 12z's  

[A.J]

All this kerfuffle over weather patterns that don't even exist yet.....My advice for some members is to take a breather from this thread for a little while, get some fresh air, and only then come back in and look at the model output objectively. constant analyzing run for run, chart for chart is fraught with danger. As Kriss, Nick Sussex, Steve Murr (just to name a few) advise, look at the bigger picture, look at the hemispherical patterns evolving, look for trends post T96, as at this stage FI lies at this range IMO. Don't get hooked up over the bog standard atlantic T850 charts (as I know many secretly do  )

 

The current trend as I infer it is for colder conditions to affect the British Isles with an increasing chance of an continental influence with HP situated over Scandinavia....Get that influence in place then see what happens

[shedhead]

It's frustrating but to be honest I was expecting this go the way of the pear, yes we have a strong block to our NE and lowering heights over the Med but we still need heights to build towards Greenland for anything sustained and for that we have to rely on a SSW, which may or may not  happen and even if it does we still need some luck for it to fall into a favourable position. 

The 144hr I posted shows decent ridging into Eastern Greeny at 144hrs, so IF that happens as shown I think there is more than a fair chance of some proper cold synoptics farther down the line.  You know how difficult it is to get an Easterly set up and that difficulty is shared by the models in trying to nail the evolution of one, so expect there to be much more chopping and changing of the detail...as the last 24hrs has seen. However the big picture remains pretty much the same, so until that changes (as well it might) I wouldn't write anything off.

Edited January 9, 2014 by shedhead