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Model Output Discussion 1st January 2014-06z onwards.


phil nw.

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Posted
  • Location: Dulwich Hill, Sydney, Australia
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and dry or cold and snowy, but please not mild and rainy!
  • Location: Dulwich Hill, Sydney, Australia
 

Such a shame we cant get rid of the PV over Greenland. I'm afraid as long as this says put then there is only 1 way the block can go... Sink south.

Lets hope that the signals are correct in that this will diminish as move towards Feb!

What I thought the PV was in Chicago?Posted Image

 

So far a constant building of the heights both higher and further west towards iceland, which can only be a good thing. Will be interesting to see how the ensembles fall go today.

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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire

This evening's GEM is stunning (yet again!)

 

Posted Image

 

edit: emotional rollercoaster beat me to it!

indeed it is and its no secret GFS is smelling its wonderful wintry perfume. ;-)
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Posted
  • Location: Hengoed 208m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snowy..warm summers but not so hot you can fry an egg on the ground
  • Location: Hengoed 208m asl

with the 12z ecm in an hour, this place could go into meltdown! good to see a lot more positive vibes here today. the point scoring and personal remarks really did sour the mood here for a while

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Posted
  • Location: Solihull, West Midlands. - 131 m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, Snow and Storms
  • Location: Solihull, West Midlands. - 131 m asl

Users rising steadily.........

Now up to 840+  .

Hope we don't bring it down tonight

 

MIA

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Posted
  • Location: Whitefield, Manchester @ 100m
  • Location: Whitefield, Manchester @ 100m

gem the last chart is messy but the rest our beautiful

Posted Image

 

Looks good to me. Nothing worse than a dry Scandi High setup that delivers nothing unless you live right on the NE coast.

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Posted
  • Location: Milton Keynes
  • Location: Milton Keynes

big problem is steve is that tiny area of high pressure is really not enough to keep things going this is why the 30dayer ukmo Is so reluctant to give us the real deal. im afraid longevity will be the issue although granted it is the gfs.

 

im going to see what the others come up with it looks far more messy with the only a little weak surface ridge to our north its in the right place but not potent enough that's my thoughts anyway I hope im wrong and it changes for the better.

If you must worry about how long something will last which has not even happened you should read the guide for forecasters on Scandi highs posted by JH yesterday. It clearly states that the longevity of the block does not depend on its size. Quote 'The intensity of the anticyclone on the day of formation has no effect on persistence'. The main factor is the  mobility to the East of the block. There are then someguidlines as to what factors affect the persotence of this set-up. I reattached it in case you did not see it yesterday.

Empirical rules for scandinavian high to developc.doc

 

This was also borne out last January when we had a small block with central pressure of only about 1015 mb which proved quite resilient. 

post-9179-0-21143800-1389199611_thumb.pn

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/archives/archives.php?day=17&month=1&hour=0&year=2013&map=0&mode=2

 

It is the orientation and placement of the block which is most important in my view.

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Posted
  • Location: Boldon, South Tyneside (Tyne & Wear) 271ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Severe Thunderstorms, Heat (Summer) & Snow in Winter
  • Location: Boldon, South Tyneside (Tyne & Wear) 271ft ASL

Does anyone want to share some of these with me I need a calmer after today!

 

post-12649-0-18386300-1389201268_thumb.j

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http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=156&mode=0&carte=

 

Take a look at the GEFS peturbations at 144-168, almost every one shows something different/very different, a large divergence in solutions. Things are getting interesting but with such scatter there must be low confidence in whatever the charts are showing, must be high shannon entropy in the atmosphere at the moment.

Edited by Bobby
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Posted
  • Location: Epsom, Surrey, 100 Meters above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Anything Extreme
  • Location: Epsom, Surrey, 100 Meters above sea level

Some models are showing, the same some models that weren't having anything other than westerlys.  Its not questioning that I'm pulling up on but the 'statement that westerlies ARE returning after 3-5 days, that is wrong as it may or may not be.  GEM disagrees for example, nothing is a given

 

BFTP

 

DO NOT MISQUOTE ME !!

 

This was my initial post >>

 

''It is looking like a cold snap though as opposed to a cold spell, maybe 3-5 days before a return to Westerly's.''

 

Once again the 12z follows on from the 06z showing a quick(ish) return to a Westerly feed after an all too brief cold spell

 

Yes it's F.I indeed we may not get an Easterly at all and so this may become irrelevant 

 

The UKMO 12z doesn't want to go with the undercut, but you can see how one might come soon after but the Azores High once again is scuppering things chances are if you were to go by the UKMO 12z that the UK would end up in a no mans land with the cold being limited to the North and North East. 

 

 

Posted Image

Edited by EML Network
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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

At the t144 range UKMO isn't going the way of ECM still either ECM will downgrade the coldest air at t144 to come closer to GFS and UKMO or it will continue will its own ideas

 

UKMO 12z

 

Posted Image

 

00Z

 

Posted Image

 

GFS 12z

 

Posted Image

 

06z

 

Posted Image

 

ECM 00z

 

Posted Image

 

12z

 

?

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Posted
  • Location: Boldon, South Tyneside (Tyne & Wear) 271ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Severe Thunderstorms, Heat (Summer) & Snow in Winter
  • Location: Boldon, South Tyneside (Tyne & Wear) 271ft ASL

Remember people- HUGE blocks keep the atlantic fronts away-  what we have is a pressure that allows the cold to come to the UK but enough as well to allow the atlantic close.....

 

S

 

 

So that means potential snowfests if weather fronts come up against the cold across the UK?

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

Remember people- HUGE blocks keep the atlantic fronts away-  what we have is a pressure that allows the cold to come to the UK but enough as well to allow the atlantic close.....

 

S

Steve I think the GFS is the snowier option in terms of that trough disruption although the UKMO might bring a frontal snow event to the west/sw as that troughing disrupts.

 

Can I ask which you prefer? of course you know my obsession with margin for error in cold synoptics so that's probably always going to make me want to go the safer route.

 

I just like seeing that bit more amplification upstream, anyway given what was on offer for most of the winter we should be pleased to see some interest at last.

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Posted
  • Location: Cardiff/Reading Uni
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Sun, Heat, Cold,T/storms via Spanish plumes *rare*
  • Location: Cardiff/Reading Uni

So that means potential snowfests if weather fronts come up against the cold across the UK?

I think thats what he is eluding to, but where will that boundary be is the next question to be answered? 

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Posted
  • Location: Boldon, South Tyneside (Tyne & Wear) 271ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Severe Thunderstorms, Heat (Summer) & Snow in Winter
  • Location: Boldon, South Tyneside (Tyne & Wear) 271ft ASL

I think thats what he is eluding to, but where will that boundary be is the next question to be answered? 

 

 

Hopefully right over the UK!  I am more than taken aback at the huge turnaround today from the models - just goes to prove that nothing is set in stone - hope that they don't flip the other way over night otherwise I will take a valium overdose!

Edited by P-M
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Posted
  • Location: Clayton-Le-Woods, Chorley 59m asl.
  • Weather Preferences: very cold frosty days, blizzards, very hot weather, floods, storms
  • Location: Clayton-Le-Woods, Chorley 59m asl.

I think 00z this morning is the best cold run so far this winter. 10/10. Posted Image

 

One famous quote from Game Of Thrones: WINTER IS COMING - Ned Stark.

Edited by pip22
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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire

GEFS mean at 192 hours is a significant improvement over the 6z with height extension towards Greenland and the cold pooling backed west

 

Posted Image

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Posted
  • Location: West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme cold & snow
  • Location: West Sussex

Time for one of my paintjobs!

 

Posted ImageUN144-21.gif

 

Okay upstream circled red is the amplified wave, the arrows the direction of travel, the low to the west of the UK will react to this wave as it approaches, it will force energy to disrupt se reinforcing low heights over the Med as this happens the cold will get pulled in from the east.

Yup that's the theory Nick let's just hope the practice takes note! Posted ImagePosted Image

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

GFS 8 day temperature anomaly showing some very cold air digging into Scandinavia -10 to -12 below the anomaly in places

 

For the UK only the south west and parts of the south coast keep hold of the red / pink colours all other places are going below average

 

Posted Image

 

Normal anomaly temps at 2m left expected temps right

 

Posted ImagePosted Image

 

Across the pond in the USA the severe cold is ending with temperatures getting above normal for many

 

Posted Image

Edited by Summer Sun
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