Model Output Discussion 1st January 2014-06z onwards.

[london-snow]

UKMO 144h much better than yesterday

 

Strange i didn't think that the ukmo ran yesterday (Either that or i must have missed it)..?

[Nick L]

Everyone worrying that the block doesn't look "robust" enough should stop worrying. The strength of the block isn't really that important but more the shape of the block. Take January 1963 for example

 

1963.gif

 

The block doesn't look brilliant but we all know how that one turned out.

 

Not comparing now with then, just pointing out for those worried about the strength of the block. Relax.

 

Point taken!

[johnholmes]

It's starting to look rather more Djokovic imo...with a bit of Federer thrown in too....

 

January 15th will be 2 days, both the 1st and 46th day of winter!

 

 

 

just follow the 1010mb isobar to see where the air has actually originated from?

[tight isobar]

A staggering conclusion to gfs 12z.....

[SMU]

Well one more treat-

 

A dream chart for those in England- every parameter says snow

 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014010812/gfsnh-0-186.png?12

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014010812/gfs-0-192.png?12

 

850's

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014010812/gfs-1-192.png?12 -9c

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rmgfs1892.gif

 

Theta E's Ideally sub 10c.

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014010812/gfs-6-192.png?12

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rmgfs1899.gif

 

A great run out to 252.......

 

UKMO 144

 

SOLID

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2014010812/UN144-21.GIF?08-17

 

S

 

Im not going to hog all the charts but GEM 120 is great - better than UKMO- KUDOS to GEM this week

Edited January 8, 2014 by Steve Murr

[Troubleatmill]

Sorry, newb here, isn't yellow a 'bad thing' for us coldies?

 

For 850hpa charts (low in troposphere) yes, for 500hpa charts (higher introposphere) no, (not as simple as that as you will pick up but simplified explanation, great link on forums homepage for learning)

[MR EXTREMES]

I share the same concerns really. This "block" doesn't seem particularly robust, not enough to allow longevity in terms of cold anyway. But it's still far better than the dross so far this "winter"!

oh absolutely im not complaining just don't think right now its a good idea to talk about 1947.

but we shall see soon enough shorter term its all going in the right direction and that block is in the perfect area just need something more robust and then feb could be exciting indeed. and im laughing so much its almost like the coldies are telepathic great to see the forum heaving with coldies longtime coming.

[legritter]

looking with one eye from behind sofa ,tonights runs will be told to me via the dog ,two wags high over scandy rising 3 wags pulling away south ,a good day modellers we just need consistancy not stella runs .so with anything realy wintry at the 6/7 day range expect down grades and upgrades but if its there for us i expect a big upgrade from Met office update tomorrow .

[shedhead]

HMMMM Reverse zonality http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1801.png!! Almost has a look of 47 about it!!

I did a similar exercise last week, but perhaps worth repeating. It all happen in a week or so then and it may well do the same now.

 

 

16th Jan 47

 

24th Jan 47

 

Today

 

 

 

16th Jan 14

 

Edited January 8, 2014 by shedhead

[R.P. McMurphy]

Thats Lovely. That big pool of PPN looks like Lake Effect from Warm North Sea...

 

Sexual Chocolate !

 

Come to papa!

 

 

[MR EXTREMES]

Everyone worrying that the block doesn't look "robust" enough should stop worrying. The strength of the block isn't really that important but more the shape of the block. Take January 1963 for example

 

1963.gif

 

The block doesn't look brilliant but we all know how that one turned out.

 

Not comparing now with then, just pointing out for those worried about the strength of the block. Relax.

its funny you should say this I was about to post the chart from 63 and you are correct that to was not extensive but higher in mb,

but it is very much like 63 in and around Iceland.

[Troubleatmill]

just follow the 1010mb isobar to see where the air has actually originated from?

 

lol, need the high to be cut off ideally to halt the risk of dragging in an easterly without cold attached eventually, bet the jet stream looks a bit bonkers

Edited January 8, 2014 by Arron B

[shedhead]

just follow the 1010mb isobar to see where the air has actually originated from?

Fair point JH, not saying this is coming right off the Steppes quite yet, but I'd rather have air sourced from the Balkans than Barbados that's for sure.. 

Edited January 8, 2014 by shedhead

[Tony Beets]

Look at the cold flooding in, with the Azores reinforcing the high to our north. WHAMMY!!!

[MR EXTREMES]

Well one more treat-

 

A dream chart for those in England- every parameter says snow

 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014010812/gfsnh-0-186.png?12

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014010812/gfs-0-192.png?12

 

850's

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014010812/gfs-1-192.png?12 -9c

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rmgfs1892.gif

 

Theta E's Ideally sub 10c.

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014010812/gfs-6-192.png?12

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rmgfs1899.gif

 

A great run out to 252.......

 

UKMO 144

 

SOLID

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2014010812/UN144-21.GIF?08-17

 

S

 

Im not going to hog all the charts but GEM 120 is great - better than UKMO- KUDOS to GEM this week

indeed steve ukmo is solid and id say its most likely going to be a more likely strength in its mb.

and the gem agrees with the ukmo they both been pretty consistent so far I like the jma model to lets see where the rest take us its very exciting indeed.

Edited January 8, 2014 by emotional rollercoaster

[Tim Bland]

Such a shame we cant get rid of the PV over Greenland. I'm afraid as long as this says put then there is only 1 way the block can go... Sink south.

Lets hope that the signals are correct in that this will diminish as move towards Feb!

[Mucka]

Strange i didn't think that the ukmo ran yesterday (Either that or i must have missed it)..?

 

It was delayed.

 

comparison UKMO 12z - yesterday/today.

 

 

It has been struggling as I say. 

 

GEM not bad so far if you like that sort of thing.

 

Edited January 8, 2014 by Mucka

[Summer Sun]

UKMO out a bit earlier this afternoon

 

 

850's only loading to t72 so far (at time of posting) so unable to show how cold it may be

[Whiteout74]

Ian F has been quiet on here today, something must be up, I see Paul Hudson has been first to break cover.

 

A lovely chart:

 

www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2162.png

[Cheshire Freeze]

Such a shame we cant get rid of the PV over Greenland. I'm afraid as long as this says put then there is only 1 way the block can go... Sink south.

Lets hope that the signals are correct in that this will diminish as move towards Feb!

 

One thing to watch out for on subsequent run is the heights migrating further west ala GEM 0z. The GFS 12z has inched this way but doesn't quite get heights far enough west to hold steady in FI. Should this materialise, as I said earlier, there's the cold until the end of the month and possibly beyond....

[Mark Bayley]

Again the GEM highlighting the possibility of some early snow on Monday, although restricted to higher ground 

[MR EXTREMES]

lovely jubbly awesome

[Summer Sun]

GEM looking cold this afternoon with easterly winds arriving

 

[mulzy]

This evening's GEM is stunning (yet again!)

 

 

edit: emotional rollercoaster beat me to it!

Edited January 8, 2014 by mulzy

[Cheshire Freeze]

This evening's GEM is stunning (yet again!)

 

 

edit: emotional rollercoaster beat me to it!

 

With core of heights located over Iceland.....