Model Output Discussion 1st January 2014-06z onwards.

[Tamara]

Subtle but early positive improvements with the first 12z model, the GME, out this afternoon  Pattern backed a fraction west with stronger Scandi height ridge and trough in the atlantic held back and slightly more amplified

 

00z

 

 

 

12z

 

 

 

 

A good yardstick for t72 as well - nice enough start to the evening!

 

Edited January 8, 2014 by Tamara תָּמָר

[nick sussex]

Subtle but early positive improvements with the first 12z model, the GME, out this afternoon  Pattern backed a fraction west with stronger Scandi height ridge and trough in the atlantic held back and slightly more amplified

 

00z

 

 

 

12z

 

I can barely watch Tamara! I'm hiding behind the sofa! Early signs from the GFS are also fine.

[shaky]

Subtle but early positive improvements with the first 12z model, the GME, out this afternoon Pattern backed a fraction west with stronger Scandi height ridge and trough in the atlantic held back and slightly more amplified

00z

12z

A good yardstick for t72 as well - nice enough start to the evening!

tamara they are both 12z!but yes a good gem so far!! Edited January 8, 2014 by shaky

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

Good afternoon my fellow weather enthusiasts

Iv been so busy over the Xmas period I really haven't time to give my views.

Just a few things to say, firstly and slightly off topic Iv spent the last 5 days in krakow Poland , I went in the hope of freezing cold but was greeted by a very unusually mild Poland , with temps ranging from -3(min) and upto 10c (max) , I found it very depressing and typical of having to suffer upper air temps at 850hpa of around +5 all the way from Africa !!!

I was earnestly following the model thread however , to wife's disgust , I litterely can't leave netweather alone !

On to the models , I was absolutely delighted today with the outlook , although not completely surprised , there has been rumblings of a potential cold spell for sometime now , but one model Iv been completely proud of , is the gem , this has been barking up the tree now for ages , and slowly but surely we have saw the models coming into line it .

At the same time , certain members in hear have blown me away with the analysis of models , Steve M , you have been amazing and never seize to amaze me with your knowledge of the way the individual models handles particular situations , and Nick Sussex has also been fantastic with his brilliance on short waves , and taking his time to educate us all with his diagrams , it really does feel like I'm attending a university course at times! And a massive shout out to two other individuals , Corinthian , for the insight he gave regarding what he and his team expected , with excellent timings aswell , and Tamara , for her very informative (at times not pleasant to read at times!) words of wisdom , and it certainly kept my feet well and truly on the ground, I know many others have realty stepped upto the mark this year since the department of our beloved GP , and in general the model output thread has come on leaps and bounds this year .

One thing Iv done these last few years is became engrossed in the strat thread , and please make no doupt about it , absolutely everything in the winter pattern is driven by the polar vortex and the stratosphere , and with this cold spell up coming , it really wouldn't be on the horizon if it wasn't for the wave 1/2 activity , we don't need a SSW to destroy the vortex , given the strength of it this year it has taken ones by surprise that this recent activity has managed to the damage it has , but it certainly bodes well for February , and as we finally know from last year , march aswell if things go right. So all in all a very positive outlook .

Behold ourselves for another night of ectacy or depression !!

Edited January 8, 2014 by Severe Siberian icy blast

[garbagebags]

Hmm shortwave out in the Atlantic picking up a bit of gusto this run. Be lovely if it went SE to Europe, but my theory is it will bounce of the block like the 06z. Being more powerfull this run it might take some of the juice out the block this time though. Ahhhh speculation. 

[nick sussex]

Amen! amplified central USA wave holding, slightly better over the UK more dig south and improved to the north, OMG I'll soon be hyperventilating here!

 

That shortwave near Iceland needs to take a hike quickly, we need this out of the way as soon as possible.

Edited January 8, 2014 by nick sussex

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

Very similar out to 78 h so you would have to say the early part of the GFS is now nailed really.

I really hope we get a good run this is crucial to the plan

 

jet digging ever so slightly more south than the 06z.G

good signs...

Edited January 8, 2014 by Cecil Hogmanay Melchett

[Summer Sun]

The low out west is 5mb deeper this afternoon other than that not much change so far

 

[Met4Cast]

Slight West correction thus far.. nice improvement!

[Continental Climate]

Not a bad chart http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn841.png!! Energy already going under and all at t84 as well

[Ali1977]

15Mb higher pressure at T96 over Greenland, that should help......

[Summer Sun]

Pressure building over Greenland on the 12z run

 

Edited January 8, 2014 by Summer Sun

[tight isobar]

Its going well ...even firming somewhat. Keep watching. ;-)

[nick sussex]

That stupid shortwave near Iceland needs to get lost, this stops more forcing on the pattern to disrupt energy se'wards, without that going on a sightseeing tour to the north the pattern would be further west with a better tilt to the troughing, its still negative but you can see how it could be better.

Edited January 8, 2014 by nick sussex

[nick sussex]

However even with that irritation even the GFS surely can't mess up from here with a stronger ridge to the ne.Note the little blob of green developing to the ne in the centre of the high!

Edited January 8, 2014 by nick sussex

[weather eater]

Amen! amplified central USA wave holding, slightly better over the UK more dig south and improved to the north, OMG I'll soon be hyperventilating here!

 

That shortwave near Iceland needs to take a hike quickly, we need this out of the way as soon as possible.

Stop it nick I haven’t got that many likes in my locker, I can’t stick one next to every one of your posts

Edited January 8, 2014 by weather eater

[Cheshire Freeze]

We've gone yellow east of Greenland, I repeat we've gone yellow east of Greenland......

 

[shedhead]

Probably wise to let the run complete, or at least the high res part of it, before reading to much into any possible changes...subtle or otherwise.

[Ali1977]

Cold might reach our shores 1 day earlier than progged by the 06Z looking at the charts

[Mucka]

However even with that irritation even the GFS surely can't mess up from here with a stronger ridge to the ne.

 You are going to give yourself a heart attack Nick.

Plenty more shortwave drama to come I'm sure but I can't see that one developing and causing any significant damage with the ridge and high to the NE the dominant players.

Famous last words probably. 

 

UKMO out to 96h

 

Edited January 8, 2014 by Mucka

[nick sussex]

We've gone yellow east of Greenland, I repeat we've gone yellow east of Greenland......

 

The GFS finds yet another shortwave to phase with the upstream low attaching itself to it! good grief its really dragging this out!

[easton888]

We've gone yellow east of Greenland, I repeat we've gone yellow east of Greenland......

 

Sorry, newb here, isn't yellow a 'bad thing' for us coldies?

[LomondSnowstorm]

We've gone yellow east of Greenland, I repeat we've gone yellow east of Greenland......

 

 

Yep, all fine so far (I mean the surface pressure is a total mess but that's just the GFS + a slack flow for you). First you get the WAA, then you get the undercut, then you get the snow (hopefully)

Edited January 8, 2014 by LomondSnowstorm

[SMU]

Nice GFS so far

 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014010812/gfsnh-0-138.png?12

 

Dead still air over the UK with

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014010812/gfsnh-6-138.png?12 14c Theta Temp & ever advancing cold to the NE...

 

S

[nick sussex]

Sorry, newb here, isn't yellow a 'bad thing' for us coldies?

Not when you're looking at those charts, its not indicating mild, just the strength of the high to the ne.