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Model Output Discussion 1st January 2014-06z onwards.

phil nw.

By phil nw.
in Forecast Model Discussion

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Ali1977 Maestro

Ali1977

Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
Posted

Deep low developed SW of Greenland, not sure how that will effect it all, could barrel through....

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weather eater Aficionado

weather eater

Posted
  • Location: East Anglia
  • Location: East Anglia
Posted

Twitter going nuts about it all, UK and Europe. Here is one post, 

 

 

 

We have a MAJOR BREAKING WEATHER MODEL STORY by the GEM 00z . A yellow ICELAND HIGH 1035 , this is MASSIVE ATTACK ! pic.twitter.com/x8ZUixR2K8

I'm not surprised its a very impressive run.

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Mapantz Maestro

Mapantz

Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: warehamwx.co.uk
  • Location: Dorset
Posted

I urge caution when using the words 'reliable timeframe' when easterlies show up. T+48hrs is about as reliable as it gets in these scenario's.

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shaky Veteran

shaky

Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester
Posted

There really are some 'miseries' on this thread, just waiting to add something negative to what so far has been the best day in a long while! Thank goodness there is 'Ignore' Preferences.

was just gona say the same thing!!its so annoying!!I dont see any downgrade at all!!
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Ali1977 Maestro

Ali1977

Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
Posted

It is a downgrade earlier on, at T132 on the 00Z we had -8 uppers, now -2......You can't argue that...

 

However still time to get better

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That ECM Maestro

That ECM

Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
Posted

Perfectly happy with the run upto t144. Never going to be a carbon copy. General theme the same. No SW drama!! Pointless looking at detail.

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LomondSnowstorm Accomplished

LomondSnowstorm

Posted
  • Location: Glasgow, Scotland (Charing Cross, 40m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: cold and snowy in winter, a good mix of weather the rest of the time
  • Location: Glasgow, Scotland (Charing Cross, 40m asl)
Posted (edited)

The 6Z is usually the most progressive of the 4 GFS runs, so this shouldn't come as too much of a surprise. However, still a signficant upgrade on yesterday's 6Z:

Posted ImagePosted Image

From an IMBY perspective these easterlies often have a tendency to correct southwards so I'd rather see charts that are a bit too far north at this stage than ones where HP is just sitting over us.

Edited by LomondSnowstorm
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shaky Veteran

shaky

Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester
Posted

Perfectly happy with the run upto t144. Never going to be a carbon copy. General theme the same. No SW drama!! Pointless looking at detail.

yup that's what I was saying aswell!!the high was sort of sinking at bout 160 hours on the 00z but not on this run!!we might have had lower 850s but it probably would av been dryer on the 00z!!
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ITSY Seasoned

ITSY

Posted
  • Location: Hampstead / Cambridge
  • Location: Hampstead / Cambridge
Posted

if only people could wait till at least the end of high res to assess a run, this thread would be so much calmer

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frosty ground Veteran

frosty ground

Posted
  • Location: oldham
  • Location: oldham
Posted

It is a downgrade earlier on, at T132 on the 00Z we had -8 uppers, now -2......You can't argue that...

 

However still time to get better

Of course it is, but why are you looking at the uppers or at any such detail at such time frames?

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shedhead Rising Star

shedhead

Posted
  • Location: ILCHESTER
  • Location: ILCHESTER
Posted (edited)

144hrs is realistically as far ahead as we need to look for now imo and perhaps not unsurprisingly the 06 is less clean by then....let the shortwave drama commence, you just knew it wouldPosted Image

 

Posted Image

Edited by shedhead
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Barking_Mad Enthusiast

Barking_Mad

Posted
  • Location: Bramley, Leeds: 100m (328ft)
  • Weather Preferences: Snow.
  • Location: Bramley, Leeds: 100m (328ft)
Posted
 

00Z EC Det model was definitely on the colder side of the ensembles, so a somewhat cold outlier. Caution recommended...

 

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Southender Seasoned

Southender

Posted
  • Location: Southend-On-Sea, South East Essex.
  • Location: Southend-On-Sea, South East Essex.
Posted

Woah. Take a chill pill people.

 

Yes it is a downgrade from the 00z GFS run, but that is standard for the 06z GFS run.

 

The overall pattern is similar, the 06z run will just take 2 bites to get the Easterly in that is all.

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Phantom2 Explorer

Phantom2

Posted
  • Location: Rhoose, South Wales
  • Weather Preferences: snow, thunderstorms
  • Location: Rhoose, South Wales
Posted

people talking about how long will the cold spell last before it's even arrived ...WHY ? ..people getting hung on a single run ..upgrade/downgrade ..WHY ? ..surely it's a trend that we are looking for and as far I can see the trend is for a cold spell of weather to arrive next week !!

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ITSY Seasoned

ITSY

Posted
  • Location: Hampstead / Cambridge
  • Location: Hampstead / Cambridge
  • Popular Post
Posted (edited)

if anyone can complain at this, they need their meteorological head testing:

Posted Image

 

EDIT: If people want to carefully analyse the charts, they'll see this is an Easterly set up ready for a reload of HP into Scandi, a stronger and more sustaining Easterly set up and all before the end of High Res. Alright it's not -10C uppers but it could be better in the long term. I'd rather 2 weeks of -4C uppers than a few days of -10. Anyway, IMHO this is a good run with better synoptics in the long run. Could be wrong, but that's my take on things.

Posted Image

 

EDIT: I'm simply gonna say this. If you want long lasting cold and snow then you want this run. Anyone who says otherwise simply isn't reading the charts correctly. Fantastic output this morning I'd say!

Edited by ITSY
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The PIT Maestro

The PIT

Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
Posted

Best run in ages just needs to get a bit closer to the reliable time frame.

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Barking_Mad Enthusiast

Barking_Mad

Posted
  • Location: Bramley, Leeds: 100m (328ft)
  • Weather Preferences: Snow.
  • Location: Bramley, Leeds: 100m (328ft)
Posted

if anyone can complain at this, they need their meteorological head testing:

Posted Image

 

If you're the sort that wants Snowmaggedon, everything else is *meh* !

 

Looks pretty good for some cold weather expecially given what we've had so far this winter. What will happen, will happen.

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Paceyboy Explorer

Paceyboy

Posted
  • Location: Tamworth, Staffordshire (83m ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Heat, Thunderstorms, Snow
  • Location: Tamworth, Staffordshire (83m ASL)
Posted (edited)

Personally I think this run is better in the long run and for longevity of 'opportunity'.

The high maybe further north but it is not sinking and cold is building and building over northern Europe.

 

EDIT: Look at the low heights in the central northern med at T180 on this run, 8mb lower pressure than the 00z for the same time! Fantastic!

Edited by Paceyboy
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shaky Veteran

shaky

Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester
Posted

The more I look at the 06z gfs the more I think what a beautiful run it is!!slider lows galore!!what a 174 hour chart!!at the same time on the 00z there was energy goin underneath the high and also over the top!!on this run everything is underneath!!and matt hugo has just posted that the ecm is somewhat of a cold outlier!!well in my opinion its on the cold side but defo plenty of support for it!!and its got the control to back it up!!we see what the 12z shows!!if it shows the same on this evening then all the doubts of it being a cold outlier will be wiped clean!!

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Paul_1978 Accomplished

Paul_1978

Posted
  • Location: Wakefield, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Wakefield, West Yorkshire
Posted

people talking about how long will the cold spell last before it's even arrived ...WHY ? ..people getting hung on a single run ..upgrade/downgrade ..WHY ? ..surely it's a trend that we are looking for and as far I can see the trend is for a cold spell of weather to arrive next week !!

 

I just think people are being cautious.

 

We all look "beyond FI" if you can call it that, for cold spells, and at present albeit in la-la land, the ECM at 240 shows the Atlantic getting back in.

Similarly at 228 on the 0z GFS.

 

We've been waiting for this for that long, you can't blame people for being worried! Lots of "behind the sofa" model watching to be had in the coming week or so!

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