Model Output Discussion 1st January 2014-06z onwards.

[The Eagle]

ECM 96 - EXCELLENT

 

[tight isobar]

Morning and a good one at that if its cold your craving. Its take your pick v, good ooz runs cross, a gfs, ukmo navgem, and ECM rolling.all slight variations in evolution but serious at bringing in our firdt real cold spell. And certain upgrading. ?..and gem is a cracker ooz.

[Polar Maritime]

Even better runs this morning, with the colder air pushing further West.. -10 -11 850's touching most of the UK. Another exiting day ahead, some Eastern promise could soon be with us ! But i would continue to apply caution in detail, as im sure there there will be many different evolutions yet over our little Island, but cold is certainly on it's way. It's nice to get this chap out... 

 

Edited January 8, 2014 by Polar Maritime

[Captain Shortwave]

good morning

I do like a good BOOM!!! in the morning 

All major models and even the less well know ones develop successful heights to the north/north east of the UK with low pressure developing to the south and a cold easterly developing at only 5 days away. Also the big bowling ball lows in the mid range have now been dropped for much weaker affairs which will disrupt a lot more efficiently. Great set of runs.

Edited January 8, 2014 by Captain shortwave

[Man With Beard]

T144 this morning, all of the big 3 showing a snow event that is likely to become more pronounced over the following days. Hard to say which chart is the coldest. What a turnaround!

Edited January 8, 2014 by rjbw

[tight isobar]

Ecm at 144 and the real cold is encroaching ever further West. ?.......

[Ice Day]

ECM at 168hrs.  Great chart, I've leave the 'Boom' to a certain other poster!!!

 

[SMU]

Well well well this morning feels like we have rolled double 6, landed a royal flush and spun green 0 on roulette all at once,

No fancy analysis required no detailed confidence posts just happy that all the main 3 are identical st 72,96,120 and 144 with wiggle room for upgrades and potential for snow as early as late sunday....

ECM 168 has widespread -10 air & -12 just coming across the north sea

The same north sea thats warmer than usual.......

Have a good day

S

[winterof79]

It has not happened yet,but lets hope a few on here now understand just how quickly the scandi high can exert itself.

I have shown numerous archive charts from 86/87 etc keep the faith.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014010800/ECM0-168.GIF?08-12

 

BA i think its time to let the kids know.....

[Polar Maritime]

Bitter.. Time to get the Long Johns out i think.

 

Edited January 8, 2014 by Polar Maritime

[tight isobar]

Dribbling this morning at these runs cross...-12 850s 192 ecm,...

[london-snow]

Even better runs this morning, with the colder air further West..

 

Quite right PM.

A cold easterly is imo the king of winter weather patterns (If it's cold and snow you're after like myself).

Your point of the cold beginning to back further west as shown on the output is a classic sign of westward correction. Let's hope it continues thus leaving us more room for error.

[That ECM]

Bitter.. Time to get the Long Johns out i think.

 

Awaiting first post that says but it won't snow IMBY etc!! I think many will be surprised to see such consistency from the overnight output and how quick the change to cold looking output it is. Fantastic. Now awaits SW drama!!

[Radiating Dendrite]

What spanners could be thrown in the works then?

It looks a fairly uncomplicated solution to cold that all the major models now show. No counting this one down from 300+.

The fact it is evolving so fast fills me with even more confidence......it just seems the most sensible and likely outcome!

[snowbob]

I can't believe the turnaround this morning

I think that a lot of posters would do well to save this weeks charts just so they can remember how quick things can change.

The experienced posters on this site are fantastic and have been saying for months that a change will happen anytime and doesn't necessarily have to be shown in deep fi.

Some members writing off winter can now see our weather on this island is prob the most complex in the world.

We are so privileged to have some very knowledgeable posters on this site and is what makes it such a great season.

It's coming at last.

[tight isobar]

Its cross model support from the ooz, s. With what looks a certainty transition to cold. Perhaps some might not question any possible upset to the evolution, but consider firmer upgrades even still. After all all the synoptic s are there.

[Captain Shortwave]

Well this really sums it up, GFS mean day 6-8

Huge movement from all models really to cold solutions, and it's not far away (the development of the Scandi high) so a couple more runs and we should be home and dry

Edited January 8, 2014 by Captain shortwave

[SHM040519]

I can't believe the turnaround this morningI think that a lot of posters would do well to save this weeks charts just so they can remember how quick things can change.The experienced posters on this site are fantastic and have been saying for months that a change will happen anytime and doesn't necessarily have to be shown in deep fi.Some members writing off winter can now see our weather on this island is prob the most complex in the world.We are so privileged to have some very knowledgeable posters on this site and is what makes it such a great season.It's coming at last.

Couldn't agree more. As I don't understand all the models the experts are fantastic. Thank you for your your coverage of this up coming cold spell!

[draztik]

projected snowfall totals from ecm 0z op out to t234

[MR EXTREMES]

Well well well this morning feels like we have rolled double 6, landed a royal flush and spun green 0 on roulette all at once,

No fancy analysis required no detailed confidence posts just happy that all the main 3 are identical st 72,96,120 and 144 with wiggle room for upgrades and potential for snow as early as late sunday....

ECM 168 has widespread -10 air & -12 just coming across the north sea

The same north sea thats warmer than usual.......

Have a good day

S

indeed steve I chocked on my coffee I nearly got out a bottle of fine wine.

cross model confidence across the board and I must say the gem and jma performed amazing in this run up.

 

incredible and how quickly has all this evolved in one night the whole lot went all in the same direction and seeing the gfs lastnight back tracking was a good step.

but to wake up this morning and see this wow.

 

oh please don't let this be a last minute fail incredible absolutely stunning streamers anyone.

jma t144

gem t144

gfs t144

ecm t144

ukmo t144

even the nasa model at t120

[Ali1977]

Looks great for cold next week, looking at the charts has this got the scope to be prolonged cold????

Looks like it's not one that will last too long, plenty of time to change though...short cold is good after the start we've had...

[london-snow]

projected snowfall totals from ecm 0z op out to t234

What's the message we see and hear year after year on here???

Oh yes...

Get the cold in place and worry about the snow later..

[I remember Atlantic 252]

If it happens, still FI remember but well done to carinthian, who seemed to predict this when no sign of it on models,

[cooling climate]

Well thats what we were all hoping to see this morning and just what you want to

see at the t144-168 time frame rather than at t240 and likely to implode.

Will be very interesting reading the turn around on the Met update later.

Excellent stuff.

[shotski]

If it happens, still FI remember but well done to carinthian, who seemed to predict this when no sign of it on models,

Correct, I wonder where he gets his data from in Austria ?