Model Output Discussion 1st January 2014-06z onwards.

[Jimmy0127]

UKMO seems to be rolling out on Meteociel now...

[UV-RAY]

On the other hand, modelling sometimes underestimates pressure rises to the E/NE

True, but that's when we've an established block in place with the Atlantic trying to break through, here we have the block trying to get a foothold with the Atlantic trying to push through.

[Summer Sun]

Tonight's late but now fully updated UKMO

 

 

850's only loading to t120 currently

 

Edited January 7, 2014 by Summer Sun

[Purga]

Well a definite improvement in the ENS

 

UKMO out to 120hrs now

LP comes crashing through at 144hrs

Edited January 7, 2014 by Purga

[Froze were the Days]

CFS and GFS 12z look very similar and that's undercutting but unfortunately then go for a weak easterly which is typically 'toppled' from the north - we shall see!

[snowice]

ukmo12z T144

 

[bluearmy]

Anyone notice the op ECM at day 10 digging the trough into the central conus ?? Re my post from earlier. not there yet but early days.

[nodrog]

Any news yet on the whereabouts of the UKMO? I saw that it was a data issue to the external providers but surely they all can't have the same problem unless the issue is starting at UKMO headquarters.

 

Typical it never went missing when the models were just spewing out zonal muck but of all the evenings for this to happen!

Government cut backs hits UKMO!

[Cheshire Freeze]

UKMO perhaps better going forward than most of the other models at 144hrs. Looks like heights may cut in across Greenland.

[Downpour]

Government cut backs hits UKMO!

Is nowhere safe from George Osborne??

[nick sussex]

Interesting UKMO and really okay because that's actually better upstream. At T144hrs we see lots of differences with phasing issues and timing across the big 3, the UKMO troughing is more favourably shaped, but the pattern too far east, in the ECM phasing has already occurred and that's also the same with the GFS.

 

The UKMO could end up the cleanest transition to cold with a few tweeks, overall we're still not really much further along knowing what exactly is going to happen.

[Zenarcher]

Comparing some of the models between 96 and 144 hours using the 12z runs from today. The UKMO won't be included tonight due to it not updating on the websites to view.

 

So using the GFS, ECM, JMA, GEM and NAVGEM.

 

96 hours 11th January - Yesterday it was very messy at this range with the models unsure on the positioning of the low in the Atlantic and pressure building over the UK and over our North East. Today we see very good agreement amongst them with only NAVGEM looking like the odd one out with the low in the Atlantic.

 

What they agree on,

 

 

And NAVGEM which currently has little support,

 

 

120 hours 12th January - Four of the five models show the low now move up to the South of Iceland,

 

 

Apart from GEM which splits the low up shortly after 96 hours and sends one North and one South by 120 hours,

 

 

Another good thing we see happening here is pressure building up stronger to our North East on the ECM, JMA and GEM,

 

 

The GFS and NAVGEM do try to do the same but don't end up like that. It wouldn't surprise when these two models do their 18z runs later today we see a better attempt.

 

144 hours 13th January - The JMA, GEM and NAVGEM look similar here with pressure staying strong over the North and it does try to build into Greenland as well but just doesn't make it,

 

 

Then the GFS and ECM are similar at this range but the ECM still has stronger pressure to the North East,

 

 

UKMO - Just seen it update when I was finishing this post, I've just quickly compared it to the rest it has made a move away from it's rather flat looking charts yesterday to something much better today and is looking similar to the rest of the models tonight which is good news.

 

Overall - Yesterday there was a large disagreement between the models but today they seem to be handling things a little bit better and the GFS 06z earlier today finally showed something similar to what the ECM has been saying recently. We now have the UKMO by the looks of it changing it's mind from yesterday as well. The models in general this evening look good with plenty of improvements and better agreements than yesterday.

[Summer Sun]

UKMO had had an update on meteociel we can now see temperatures for the UK to t72 example below

 

 

Similar update for precipitation

 

 

850 temps also added for the UK

 

 

A few others are on there as well wind speeds is one of the new additions

 

The top 2 certainly will be handy for coldies when any potential snow events come down to the t72 range and lower as we'll be able to see where the coldest temps are likely to be

Edited January 7, 2014 by Summer Sun

[Stuie]

Interesting UKMO and really okay because that's actually better upstream. At T144hrs we see lots of differences with phasing issues and timing across the big 3, the UKMO troughing is more favourably shaped, but the pattern too far east, in the ECM phasing has already occurred and that's also the same with the GFS.

 

The UKMO could end up the cleanest transition to cold with a few tweeks, overall we're still not really much further along knowing what exactly is going to happen.

Yes we do Nick.

There will be blue bits pushing green bits, purple bits almost scared of the blue bits and the yellow? another story.

[tinybill]

i  know  people  are trying to see the American  weather  come here i cant  see it even  f1  if i am not right i put my hands up but at the moment the only days which we might see some  snow is  jan  17,18, 22  23 at  the  moment  and  that deep f1

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?mode=2&ech=204

Edited January 7, 2014 by tinybill

[mulzy]

Very decent ECM ensemble mean at day 6 and 7.

 

Edited January 7, 2014 by mulzy

[texel]

i  know  people  are trying to see the American  weather  come here i cant  see it even  f1  if i am not right i put my hands up but at the moment the only day which we might see some  snow is  jan 22  23 at  the  moment  and  that deep f1

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?mode=2&ech=204

That be for your location you mean?

[KTtom]

Eds given his update on the Winter forecast.....here:

 

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/78606-netweather-winter-forecast-2013/page-4#entry2888279

[Grimsby Snow Lover]

Quite a steep dive in the AO ens this evening as we head further through January.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.sprd2.gif

The NAO still looks like remaining around neutral to possibly positive for the foreseeable future.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.sprd2.gif

[nick sussex]

The ECM operational run for De Bilt is a mild outlier for that region from next Tuesday!

 

 

The extended ones out later should be very interesting, the spike increase in precip not supported suggests the troughing will disrupt further west, although theres some solutions similar to the operational overall its in the minority.

Edited January 7, 2014 by nick sussex

[Matty M]

I like that ECMWF mean @ 192hrs

 

Solid.

 

[Gibby]

Good evening. Here is the report on the 12 noon outputs from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Tuesday January 7th 2013 taken from http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis(2859336).htm

 

All models show Low pressure to the North of the UK filling over the coming 24-48 hours as pressure rises gently over the UK. In the South and SE an overnight passage of a front will create some more unneeded rainfall across SE England overnight and more widely over England and Wales tomorrow night. Winds are shown to be much lighter than of late for all. On Thursday and into Friday a drier and brighter spell is likely before some rain returns on Friday night into Saturday, again in turn followed by a drier phase over the weekend with rain and wind spreading steadily North and East over the UK.

 

GFS then shows next week starting unsettled and wet with rain at times under Low pressure. Later in the week the system providing the rain slides away SE with High pressure developing from the NW as a High pressure belt stretches from Scandinavia to the Azores which then sinks further South and East to a point South of the UK with Westerly winds returning for many by the end of the run lifting temperatures back to average levels from the colder figures and no doubt threatening rain in the North.

 

The GFS Ensembles are a very mixed bunch with a very wide spread between members with many showing values close to average while some show colder than average ones with the upper hand going to the slightly colder ones tonight with precipitation scattered about throughout the period indicating Low pressure fairly close by from all members at times but mixed in are some quieter anticyclonic weather in between times too especially later.

 

UKMO shows Low pressure over Northern Scotland with a wet and windy period sweeping East over the UK with showers to follow in rather colder air.

 

GEM tonight turns things much colder for all once disruption to the trough moving into the UK early next week takes place. Rain would move across all areas for a time before it sinks away SE and is replaced by very much colder and dry conditions as High pressure eases down from the North with widespread sharp frosts by night. As the rain clears there could be a period of snow which could accompany the change to colder air chiefly in the South. By the end of the run the pattern slips South as an Azores High allows for milder air to topple back down over the UK late on.

 

NAVGEM keeps any High pressure influential to Britain towards the SE steering Low pressure across the UK in West or SW winds with things drying up a week from now as a ridge from the High to the SE covers the UK.

 

ECM tonight is apalling for dry weather fans as the UK becomes the battlegrorund between mild Atlantic winds and cold continental air developed over Europe through next week. The net result in the 5-10 day period is thoroughly wet and windy weather again as Low pressure becomes blocked over or close to Southern Britain. By Day 10 the filling Low near the SW may allow cold continental air to waft West across Britain beyond the end of the run.

 

The ECM 9 and 10 Day Ensemble Mean Charts show the situation much the same as this morning with the risk of Low pressure troughs ganging up close to western Britain with fairly persitent rainfall possible. While the scandi High is still an option from many members it's progress to a full blow Easterly still looks a long way off at Day 10 and not progressing from Day 9. However, having said that the charts are both still quite promising.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2161.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif 

 

The Jet Stream Forecast from GFS shows the flow remaining active across the Atlantic ridging and troughing North and South at times with a growing trend to keep the flow on Southern latitudes over Europe which could support High pressure over Northern Europe.

 

In Summary the weather looks set to turn colder next week. The nature and the process in the way that this pattern develops could be quite troublesome as it could lead to a lot more rain as troughs and Low pressure gang up on the UK from the West, blocked by a developing High pressure to the East or NE. There is still a lot of water to pass under the bridge (forgive the pun) before we get a clearer picture of how the pattern unfolds in the longer term but my own thoughts would be that a pattern change is likely to something more interesting for cold fans later in the month with a strong chance of a Scandinavian Anticyclone developing sometime soon which I believe would be the first step towards meaningful snowfall chances too this winter.

Edited January 7, 2014 by Gibby

[tinybill]

That be for your location you mean?

yes

[Matty M]

The ECM operational run for De Bilt is a mild outlier for that region from next Tuesday!

 

PLUIM_06260_NWT.png

BINGO!

[Grimsby Snow Lover]

The ECM operational run for De Bilt is a mild outlier for that region from next Tuesday!

 

PLUIM_06260_NWT.png

I would love to see the Control run on the ECM Nick!!