Model Output Discussion 1st January 2014-06z onwards.

[phil nw.]

Too early to be concerned with detail with that trough heading se at T144-168hrs and where and if it will snow.In this case some snow at first ahead of the front further north and east seems possible but the milder air does win through eventually.

The main thing is we can see run after run of some form of eastern blocking being modeled next week and the Atlantic jet splitting with more of it's energy heading further se.

That's the positives to take so far but maybe too soon to expect a straightforward reversal to an easterly setup just yet.

At last though after a long westerly setup something a bit different to look out for.

[weather eater]

Taken at face value heavy driving snow away from windward coasts north of England and inland East Anglia northwards. However at this range this could change so calm down!!!

Not could change at 168hrs Nick, it will change at 168hrs; let’s hope it’s for the better. I hate seeing good synoptics at this range they are frequently wasted, they downgrade more often than upgrade and this one is going the way of the pear,  good job none of tonight’s runs are Stella, there’s plenty of room to go either way.

We had better hope the ECM is not out scoring the GFS this evening as I would suggest the GFS 12 is a better run, although not as good as this evenings GEM.

[Paul_1978]

Models struggle with things such as these.Its very stressful on them, next few days are going to be getting very intense.

Yep, like the last 2 months have been really relaxed :-D Edited January 7, 2014 by Paul_1978

[legritter]

A good Ecm run tonight ,but still early days ,granted i would like to see the high a little further n /west but at the 8/10 day range a lot could change in our favour or against .its a big change so lets be patient and see what the next few days bring ,take it met of chart not out  yet ,cheers .

[nick sussex]

I do wonder sometimes whether some people have paid any attention at all to the changes we've seen between outputs and those even bigger changes day to day.

 

Using the logic employed by some then the GFS which  showed zip chance of cold a few days back was correct and that theres no fluidity to an evolving pattern!

 

Modelling is not  a set outlook carved in concrete its a fluid dynamic that changes or not as more and more newer data is fed in. As I have stressed till I'm blue in the face the pattern remains volatile, I have done numerous charts etc to try and get this point across, the margins are very small between snow and no snow.

 

What we see today in this type of set up with block to the ne is liable to change again and again, its not an easy set up for the NWP. These changes may be better for cold or worse we simply don't know and the UKMO will tell you the same that's its a very difficult forecast.

 

That's my moan over for the evening!

[Downpour]

Actually where is UKMO? No charts?

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Also folks this is progged to happen next week, mid Jan, so much winter to follow. A great development... It ain't mid Feb

BFTP

[Summer Sun]

Actually where is UKMO? No charts?

 

Data problems this evening Its updated fine at Exeter but the likes of wetterzentral, meteociel ect are not getting the 12z run

[tight isobar]

As with any transition to a colder scenario uk, the devil will be in the detail.and any cert will only be most reliable +96 time per.plenty of optimism and a whole lot better if its colder, your seeking atm.things looking fair/ good imo.

[chris55]

The fact that this big Low is diving south east - rather than barrelling through north east-  is enough for me tonight. We are getting there people, winter might finally begin to bite if we're lucky. Its an evolving pattern, and at the moment its evolving in the right direction lol.

 

Edited January 7, 2014 by chris55

[Ǝssex Ǝasterly]

Interesting, the canadian model want's to stick us in the freezer for a while

 

 

 

Am I right in thinking the pressure chart shows a scandi high?

Edited January 7, 2014 by Essex Easterly.

[Downpour]

One of the biggest early term developments is the much drier picture progged in the SE. We are now looking at five bone dry days give or take the odd droplet of rain here and there. It has been a long time since we have been able to say that. Thereafter, we could be looking at a shift to something more wintry - but the pattern change is now afoot in some respects already because the insane water tap in the sky has been plugged up for the remainder of the week.

Data problems this evening Its updated fine at Exeter but the likes of wetterzentral, meteociel ect are not getting the 12z run

Curious. I wonder... Edited January 7, 2014 by Downpour

[nick sussex]

Right after my mini tirade ! in terms of tonights outputs minus the UKMO which has gone missing we have seen a westwards correction in the pattern, however as you can see the models are reluctant to drive enough energy se into mainland Europe.

 

Now part of the problem here is the phasing time between the troughing to the west and the next upstream low, in a sense we lose the sharpness to the trough so our knife becomes too cold to cut through the butter out of the fridge.

 

Also as SM analogy goes the bowling ball low is not great, you can look at the shape of the low and view it as a personality because the shape tells as an awful lot about what it wants to do.

 

We want to see a more stretched elongated low. this would then suggest its more amenable to sending energy under the block.

[winterof79]

This is quite similar in ways

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014010712/gfsnh-0-192.png?12

To this

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/reana/2013/archivesnh-2013-1-12-0-0.png ....just saying.......

[The Northern Ramper]

The beauty of this set up is the wheels are in motion nice and early on the ECM, best record at 120 so looking very promising.

Yes the 168 chart is borderline but these things always seem to correct West, by the time we get to T0 we'll probably have a slider.

[nick sussex]

Any news yet on the whereabouts of the UKMO? I saw that it was a data issue to the external providers but surely they all can't have the same problem unless the issue is starting at UKMO headquarters.

 

Typical it never went missing when the models were just spewing out zonal muck but of all the evenings for this to happen!

Edited January 7, 2014 by nick sussex

[phil nw.]

Any news yet on the whereabouts of the UKMO? I saw that it was a data issue to the external providers but surely they all can't have the same problem unless the issue is starting at UKMO headquarters.

 

Typical it never went missing when the models were just spewing out zonal muck but of all the evenings for this to happen!

I have tried all the usual sites Nick including the Canadian one but no luck.

Like you i wonder if it's a transmission problem.

[Davey80]

Just been looking through the archives for 1947 around 20th Jan and the set-up is very very similar. Just need lows to back west and to dig more SE into Iberia and heights to strengthen over Greenland. Hopefully we will see that on future runs.The key for this evening is that anything is possible from that moment. 

[weather_it_will]

Fergieweather told us the UKMO ran but never left Exeter due to transmission failure or words to that effect.

[Eskimo]

Any news yet on the whereabouts of the UKMO? I saw that it was a data issue to the external providers but surely they all can't have the same problem unless the issue is starting at UKMO headquarters.

 

Typical it never went missing when the models were just spewing out zonal muck but of all the evenings for this to happen!

You know what that means Nick right? Must mean the MetOffice are so concerned about the inevitable snowmageddon and bitter temperatures that they can't scare the public. 

[snowice]

^{This sort of setup always frustrates me because the cold easterly never quite makes it over the Irish sea.}

 

^{The ecm12z has the battel ground over north east England,fingers crossed for once it moves west} 

 

^{We can`t watch while the UK  gets the cold and we have the mild rubbish!}

[ANYWEATHER]

The Ecm and gfs are "sniffing" some kind of change with blocking to the NorthEast of the Uk. So that's Step 1 for chance of a cold shot, Step 2,remains uncertain as to whether the Blocking to the North East will have enough about it to finally bring a halt to the Atlantic and bring our weather in from the East. Step 3 would be the perfect solution with undercutting lows to the South of the Uk enhancing a strong Scandinavian high!  So there are 3 steps to Winter Heaven for you good coldie Folk, at the moment we are on Step 1..... But all in all encouraging signs for cold, but unfortunately in the process some high rainfall totals for some across the Uk..... This is my simple but fair assessment  of the developing synoptic situation....  

[UV-RAY]

Not could change at 168hrs Nick, it will change at 168hrs; let’s hope it’s for the better. I hate seeing good synoptics at this range they are frequently wasted, they downgrade more often than upgrade and this one is going the way of the pear,  good job none of tonight’s runs are Stella, there’s plenty of room to go either way.

We had better hope the ECM is not out scoring the GFS this evening as I would suggest the GFS 12 is a better run, although not as good as this evenings GEM.

I think this is a very good point with anything progged from the East, how many times have seen stella charts downgraded as we approach +0. On the bright side at least we've got cracking output to discuss rather than where's the next storm going to hit.

[Cheshire Freeze]

I think this is a very good point with anything progged from the East, how many times have seen stella charts downgraded as we approach +0. On the bright side at least we've got cracking output to discuss rather than where's the next storm going to hit.

 

On the other hand, modelling sometimes underestimates pressure rises to the E/NE

[Summer Sun]

Good news folks UKMO is updating

 

Better late than never