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Model Output Discussion 1st January 2014-06z onwards.


phil nw.

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

 

Judging the by the T72hrs fax chart which looks a touch better than this mornings then unless theres been some major modification at T72rs to the raw output then the UKMO is unlikely to be sending the share price of Prozac up.

 what were you worrying about at T72 nick ?
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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester

Judging the by the T72hrs fax chart which looks a touch better than this mornings then unless theres been some major modification at T72rs to the raw output then the UKMO is unlikely to be sending the share price of Prozac up.

 

What am I missing?

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

   what were you worrying about at T72 nick ?

Where the developing low is that ends up west of the UK and also a few other little details, overall its fine.

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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl

Got a feeling that these charts are leading us all up the garden path. Because bbc news 24 just said settled 48hrs at weekend before more rain next week. So it sound pretty Atlantic driven into next week. Guess we will have to see what evolves over the coming days ahead. But I think we will miss first bite of the cherry before we get a second shot later jan. Think we will be too far west for the cold.

 

I am a GFS believer (fan if you like) and its great news the 12Z is flirting with colder air before 192, could really think a change to cold may well come now, winter has not started here yet, expecting it to soon, best GFS low res of season so far

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Posted
  • Location: Droylsden, Manchester, 94 metres/308 feet ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Dry/mild/warm/sunny/high pressure/no snow/no rain
  • Location: Droylsden, Manchester, 94 metres/308 feet ASL

Any good news on the ecm??am too nervous too look at it!!

 

It's showing a Bartlett Pressure developing Posted Image

 

Nah it's only up to 96 hrs atm.

 

Posted Image

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Posted
  • Location: Nottingham
  • Location: Nottingham

Can you post the charts to show us what you mean?

I have noticed that GFS 850's are always modelled a good deal colder over the Arctic than its European counterparts but I think it is because the starting data is very limited for that region so it is estimated to some degree rather than measured but I don't think that is relevant to what you are asking.

I've tried to explain in pictures but i'm no Tony HartPosted Image

post-4982-0-89329300-1389118693_thumb.pn

post-4982-0-10325400-1389118709_thumb.pn

post-4982-0-26659900-1389118727_thumb.pn

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Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea

Does this happen often?

Models struggle with things such as these.

 

Its very stressful on them, next few days are going to be getting very intense.

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Posted
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl

ECM 12z today has shifted things westwards for Sunday compared with yesterday.Posted Image 

 

yesterday..  today..

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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire

ECM 12z today has shifted things westwards for Sunday compared with yesterday.Posted Image 

 

yesterday..Posted ImageECH1-144.gif  today..Posted ImageECH1-120 (1).gif

 

Yep, this allied to a stronger looking pressure rise also.

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester

I've tried to explain in pictures but i'm no Tony HartPosted Image

 

It's because the GFS chart is 12 hours later. See time the chart is for top right. ECM/GEM 8th 00z, GFS 8th 12z.

If you take GFS back 12 hours or the Euros forward 12h you will see there is little discrepancy. Hope that helps.

Edited by Mucka
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Posted
  • Location: North west England/East Lancashire/Burnley
  • Location: North west England/East Lancashire/Burnley

I've tried to explain in pictures but i'm no Tony HartPosted Image

You could easily give Tony Hart s run for his money nice one
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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

Decent ECM 144hrs heavy snow in the North Sea more westwards corrections would bring this over to you in the UK!

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