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Model Output Discussion 1st January 2014-06z onwards.


phil nw.

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Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL

The Ens at 192 look very good, lots of easterly set ups, and nice blocked patterns...

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Posted
  • Location: Exeter, Devon
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunderstorms
  • Location: Exeter, Devon

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?ext=1&x=312&y=138 The short London GEFS - at 192 hours we already have 6 runs dropping below the -5 line which, to my eyes, is a considerable improvement. Let's see how the rest of the runs progress and hope that this continues!

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Posted
  • Location: Cheddington, Buckinghamshire
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Cold & Snowy, Summer: Just not hot
  • Location: Cheddington, Buckinghamshire

Are we going to get a UKMO this evening?

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Posted
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Summer:sunny, some Thunder,Winter:cold & snowy spells,Other:transitional
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?ext=1&x=312&y=138 The short London GEFS - at 192 hours we already have 6 runs dropping below the -5 line which, to my eyes, is a considerable improvement. Let's see how the rest of the runs progress and hope that this continues!

 

Yes Joe and whilst the GFS is always so so reluctant to ever dream of us receiving an Easterly (assuming this is one showing?), maybe the stalling low alluded to by Crewe Cold earlier could be the real thing this time. Posted Image  Still a week away yet though, so let's not get ahead of ourselves.

 

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/78936-model-output-discussion-1st-january-2014-06z-onwards/?p=2887976

 

Roll on the ECM and IanF updates. Posted Image

Edited by gottolovethisweather
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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester

Are we going to get a UKMO this evening?

 

It is obviously a stunner and they don't want to break the internet by releasing it to the public.

Very good output this evening for cold weather fans. The block definitely has it's foot in the door and is making its final pitch - take my money already!

 

Here is a GEM 850 chart, just under a week away.

 

Posted Image

Edited by Mucka
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Posted
  • Location: Cardiff, Wales
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunder & Lightning, Thundersnow, Storms, Heatwave
  • Location: Cardiff, Wales

Ive always loved the GEM Posted Image  nice 12z run, eagerly awaiting the UKMO.

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Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL

Even -12c uppers showing on one Ens at 226

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Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

Throwing in the towel, I just say what I see, I have no interest in viewing models in either a positive or negative manner, glass half full or half empty is irrelevant, it is the model discussion thread, not the model discussion thread only if you are super optimistic about a cold spell. If you want to disagree that’s fine, you explain you’re rational and I will do the same, it’s a discussion not a competition even though a vast number of members seem to want to treat it as such.

And who said anything about writing off the rest of the month, all I am doing is reporting on how I think the models are trending and have been for a few days, by tomorrow morning that may be completely turned on its head.

Sigh, I need to make my topic changes a bit more clear, I wasn't including you in that part of the post so apologies for that. Posted ImagePosted Image

Output wise........

Well for the runs so far we have

Posted Image

GFS

Posted Image

ens

Both show a decent building ridge towards Scandinavia

GEM is very bullish tonight

Posted Image

and goes on to this

Posted Image

Beauty of a chart

cold flooding west

Posted Image

most of the UK is covered by -8 850's by day 8

 

Apparently the UKMO needed to be turned off and on again Posted Image

Edited by Captain shortwave
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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

The UKMO data are delayed or unavailable tonight. Thank you for your understanding

UKMO data are not available or late tonight. Sorry about the inconvenience!

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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire

Some good signals now being picked up on the models.the gem is a peach this evening, sucking the freezer right at us. Contemplating a decent ECM 12z. ?..

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Posted
  • Location: Nottingham
  • Location: Nottingham

Hi Folks,

I joined the NW forum in 2005 and in that time I cant remember the GFS struggle or differ so much compared with other models, even within small time frames. If we take both the GEM and ECM 850 at 24hrs both have -10 air at the tip of Greenland. GFS has it 600/700 miles further east. Why such a big difference at this time frame?

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Posted
  • Location: East Anglia
  • Location: East Anglia

Sigh, I need to make my topic changes a bit more clear, I wasn't including you in that part of the post so apologies for that. Posted ImagePosted Image

Cheers Captain and it looks like we don’t have to wait until tomorrow for the output to be turned on its head, it’s been a pretty good evening so far, but what’s the betting that just as the GFS says easterly, tonight’s ECM will jump ship.

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Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL

GEFS not as good later on, however better mid term, and that's a bonus!!

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester

Hi Folks,

I joined the NW forum in 2005 and in that time I cant remember the GFS struggle or differ so much compared with other models, even within small time frames. If we take both the GEM and ECM 850 at 24hrs both have -10 air at the tip of Greenland. GFS has it 600/700 miles further east. Why such a big difference at this time frame?

 

Can you post the charts to show us what you mean?

I have noticed that GFS 850's are always modelled a good deal colder over the Arctic than its European counterparts but I think it is because the starting data is very limited for that region so it is estimated to some degree rather than measured but I don't think that is relevant to what you are asking.

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

Just caught up with the rest of the GFS and other outputs, the GEM is the solution if you have a stronger ridge to the north and no pesky shortwave at the critical timeframe.

 

The shortwave stops the WAA into Iceland and allows the trough to start being pulled east rather than disrupting energy se'wards.

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Posted
  • Location: west yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: extreme weather
  • Location: west yorkshire

Got a feeling that these charts are leading us all up the garden path. Because bbc news 24 just said settled 48hrs at weekend before more rain next week. So it sound pretty Atlantic driven into next week. Guess we will have to see what evolves over the coming days ahead. But I think we will miss first bite of the cherry before we get a second shot later jan. Think we will be too far west for the cold.

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

Judging the by the T72hrs fax chart which looks a touch better than this mornings then unless theres been some major modification at T72rs to the raw output then the UKMO is unlikely to be sending the share price of Prozac up.

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Posted
  • Location: Cardiff/Reading Uni
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Sun, Heat, Cold,T/storms via Spanish plumes *rare*
  • Location: Cardiff/Reading Uni

Something to remember guys ( I will do the usual update at 1030 tonight) is crucially-

 

As the Models are now firming up on this ridging this alligns the jet into an 'n' shape over the UK, the models are now developing a shallow shortwave to run SE into Scandi  

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gem/runs/2014010712/gem-5-102.png?12  Jet shape

 

Shortwave

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gem/runs/2014010712/gem-0-102.png?12

 

See it at the southern tip of Scandi

 

This is supporting the Scandi high from sinking away SE & taking all the cold air along with it-

As a result as the ensembles sharpen up the jet that low many turn out close to NE england than SE scandi-

It also allow the wedge of heights moving north to phase with the high in situ over scandi- forcing the cold air west-

 

All in all thats great news & why suddenly the Ensembles will be dropping like a stone tonight......

S

Great find Steve! Hopefully this can be the trigger for something much more interesting!

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