Model Output Discussion 1st January 2014-06z onwards.

[draztik]

was it indicating any scandi heights for the coming weekend in its last update?cos if not then its got it wrong at short notice already so anything that it shows from or after week 2 could be wrong aswell!

 

From memory, I don't think so. It did show zonal easing, and then a reboot. Hopefully Ian, will offer some assessment of the model and on the fax data.

[fergieweather]

Well, I have consumed enough runs and ENS now to see that the signal is growing for blocking to the NE by days 8-10, with the UK, as often the case, looking to be the battleground between east and west.You can quite clearly see the Atlantic lows struggling to get past the meridian on the 18z GFS once the ridge builds north over N Sea/Wern Scandi next weekend. The only place that energy can go then, is under the block across continental Europe.Interesting times ahead, but finely in the balance at 50:50 IMO.

Yes, latest EC32 is v keen on the NE blocking anomaly and mean easterly into week two, but drops it rapidly thereafter with steady return to status-quo towards end of Jan (low heights to NW; HP to SW). ENS plumes have just the sole colder snap centred by circa day 10 (in keeping with above idea) but worth noting how the net outcome is an almost complete loss of longstanding milder anomalies across most of N/NW Europe and UK by later Jan onwards. However, blocked solutions remain a minority by later Jan into early Feb, with mean W /periodic NW flow dominating the ensembles. Some very interesting model-watching times ahead as to how this actually unfolds. Edited January 6, 2014 by fergieweather

[Neilsouth]

Latest ec32 update sees heights build over Scandi from late wkend, but the signal recedes into wk 2. Thereafter we return to old faithful. Troughing to our NW, extending thru greenland., and general zonality is restored - and it remains until the end of its run into Feb. So the latest monthly still suggesting unsettled, (probably trending around average? Ian? Maybe below average)… but very little to write home about in terms of a big freeze. Not from the synoptics indicated. This is now, I believe, the third/fourth run indicating this overall pattern.

 

You'e mentioned the return to zonal all day so far and then straight after a call for Ian's thoughts. Do we really need it mentioned all the time!

 

Nobody really knows what's going to happen at such a distance, the models are giving us lots of options at the moment

[bluearmy]

just to add to the ec32, the low euro anomolys remain to the end of the month. thereafter, the azores ridges across and then builds back up into scandi somewhat.  looks like a continual feed of depressions moving w-e and then dropping se into europe. if we could get that pattern to retrogress by a few hundred miles .....................

[gottolovethisweather]

I'm fed up of the constant gfs bashing on here, its as good a model as any. All the models have strengths and weaknesses, ups and downs and the ecm has been abysmal at times.

 

I agree Frosty, we have our personal favourites in terms of personalities in here and our favoured NWP outputs too. Whilst not wanting to preach to the unconverted here, I still believe in what I mentioned in the MOD thread a few weeks back and that was as follows.

 

So finally, to bring about another much touted quote "we are all in this together" and on the same kind of principles as SM indicates, any non-seasoned model watchers, lurkers and learners should remember the following.

 

No one person is greater than the tools they have in front of them, i.e. the weather models and no one or combination of weather model suites are greater than those who attempt to interpret the data, i.e. ourselves.

 

As for my analysis of the current situation across all NWP output is that the unrelenting Jetstream is finally set to weaken over the coming 48 hours or so. Most of Southern England should see a drier interlude during the latter part of this week. Next weekend is still up for grabs but the all important Jet will have lost most of its energy by then. My watch period for a colder flow and potential for something reminiscent of Winter remains as before, i.e during the timeframe at t+168 hours onwards that is 12th January and beyond. Currently, I do not see entrenched cold and bitter 850s BUT the door may be slightly ajar now.

Edited January 6, 2014 by gottolovethisweather

[shaky]

Yes, latest EC32 is v keen on the NE blocking anomaly and mean easterly into week two, but drops it rapidly thereafter with steady return to status-quo towards end of Jan (low heights to NW; HP to SW). ENS plumes have just the sole colder snap centred by circa day 10 (in keeping with above idea) but worth noting how the net outcome is an almost complete loss of longstanding milder anomalies across most of N/NW Europe and UK by later Jan onwards. However, blocked solutions remain a minority by later Jan into early Feb, with mean W /periodic NW flow dominating the ensembles. Some very interesting model-watching times ahead as to how this actually unfolds.

ian do you think the scandi high could be stronger than modelled and last even longer than the 32 dayer suggests?

[draztik]

You'e mentioned the return to zonal all day so far and then straight after a call for Ian's thoughts. Do we really need it mentioned all the time!

 

Nobody really knows what's going to happen at such a distance, the models are giving us lots of options at the moment

 

I asked for Ians view on the temp anomaly, as the chart I use hasn't been updating that data set. So I couldn't know for sure what it was indicating. Cheers.

[fergieweather]

Latest ec32 update sees heights build over Scandi from late wkend, but the signal recedes into wk 2There ereafter we return to old faithful. Troughing to our NW, extending thru greenland., and general zonality is restored - and it remains until the end of its run into Feb. So the latest monthly still suggesting unsettled, (probably trending around average? Ian? Maybe below average)… but very little to write home about in terms of a big freeze. Not from the synoptics indicated. This is now, I believe, the third/fourth run indicating this overall pattern.

Agreed: broadly consistent barring the temporary Scandinavian block episode. Agreed too re average temps returning (but no mild anomaly of note). Next GloSea5 update might be instructive by way of any comparison.

[fergieweather]

ian do you think the scandi high could be stronger than modelled and last even longer than the 32 dayer suggests?

Therein lies a key imponderable, based on history of comparable synoptics! So who knows... Edited January 6, 2014 by fergieweather

[Bobby]

The models are hinting a block to the NE, but with continued energy coming from the vortex to the NW, with signs of it indeed strengthening later, how is the block going to become strong and persistent enough to get cold air into the UK? This I see as being very difficult. It seems either the pattern will flatten or perhaps high pressure will build over us giving a UK high or dare it be said a Bartlett, Euro high or similar.

 

Yes, latest EC32 is v keen on the NE blocking anomaly and mean easterly into week two, but drops it rapidly thereafter with steady return to status-quo towards end of Jan (low heights to NW; HP to SW). ENS plumes have just the sole colder snap from circa day 10 (in keeping with above idea) but worth noting how the net outcome is an almost complete loss of longstanding milder anomalies across most of N/NW Europe and UK by later Jan onwards. However, blocked solutions remain a minority by later Jan into early Feb, with mean W /periodic NW flow dominating the ensembles. Some very interesting model-watching times ahead as to how this actually unfolds.

 

Seems to agree with the GEFS, NAEFS and GEM ensembles

 

GEFS, NAEFS, GEM ensemble means at the end, been consistent for a few days with the theme. Who knows what surprises the British weather has in store for us though, it likes making fools of us.

 

   

 

[SE Blizzards]

The models are hinting a block to the NE, but with continued energy coming from the vortex to the NW, with signs of it indeed strengthening later, how is the block going to become strong and persistent enough to get cold air into the UK? This I see as being very difficult. It seems either the pattern will flatten or perhaps high pressure will build over us giving a UK high or dare it be said a Bartlett, Euro high or similar.

 

 

Seems to agree with the GEFS, NAEFS and GEM ensembles

 

GEFS, NAEFS, GEM ensemble means at the end, been consistent for a few days with the theme. Who knows what surprises the British weather has in store for us though, it likes making fools of us.

 

   

 

Those are the 12z's

 

But looking at the 18z Ens there seems to be many Easterly options in there. Looks to me like a big step in the right direction.

 

And the control run is an absolute cracker!

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=348&mode=0&carte=0

Edited January 7, 2014 by SE Blizzards

[john pike]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?ech=192&code=0&mode=0&carte=0

 

the control run looks pretty cold

[Bobby]

Those are the 12z Ens.

 

But looking at the 18z Ens there seems to be many Easterly options in there. Looks to me like a big step in the right direction.

 

And the control run is an absolute cracker!

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=348&mode=0&carte=0

 

Wouldn't be surprised at an easterly of sorts, but a sustained and cold one looks difficult. The upper air temp mean for the same time as that control run, +348...

 

[A.J]

model discussion please, not one liner/off topic/sarcastic/personal/ludicrous* posts please

 

*take your pick - the last few pages have been overrun with said posts

[LomondSnowstorm]

English please Ian.

The gist of it is - 'that's the big unknown, based on how similar events in the past have turned out.'

Or, in Scots 'Ah dinnae ken!'

[SnowBallz]

English please Ian.

 

If you take prior analogues of similar synoptic pattern, a signal for amplification of the Scandinavian high is plausible.

 

But whether it's likely is another matter, and at this stage there's far too much uncertainty to make a confident call either way.

[legritter]

Just shot out of bed with an overhead storm ,goodmorning .yes signs of high pressure to our east n/east at days 8/10 ish getting it right at this range is fairly hard ,the horizon beyond this is realy cloudy with ifs and possibilitys ,But good signs for colder solutions at present so still all to play for .back to bed eagerly await todays SAGA cHEERS .

[TSNWK]

O GFS make your mind up... Big differences start of next week now on the 00z compared to 18z in that a lot more energy appears to have gone north east so no heights to our north/north east..

Think I will avoid this place this morning...

Cheers.

[Joe Levy]

After making a pig's ear of it all, the GFS gives us this in FI - lovely, but a long way away. Please just be consistent for heaven's sake! A combination of model watching and essay writing has now left me so sleep deprived that I seem to be talking to the models... and not the kind that walk down catwalks

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

_{Interesting UKMO this morning.http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.html}

_{Looks better than GFS0Z at 144}

 

_{Obviously a very very fluid outlook so all bets are off as it stands.}

[The PIT]

_{Interesting UKMO this morning.http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.html}

_{Looks better than GFS0Z at 144}

 

_{Obviously a very very fluid outlook so all bets are off as it stands.}

Pretty similar charts but the GFS develops the secondary low a little more. A change in direction to a more NW SE track is evident but even that is failing to tap into real cold air. I'm waiting for the frenzy over T384 chart shown in the GFS.

I've noticed the chances of getting the first air frost of the winter has been downgraded.

[IDO]

It clearly remains a very fluid situation at the moment with the models for next week. I certainly am not going to call it with the lack of continuity cross and inter model. The GFS mean at T180:

 

 

It now supports the ECM lull in the zonal flow. What happens after is the debate. The first shot on this morning's GFS 0z op fails to build HP to the NE, the Control is a bit better but not sustained. However in both cases the lull in the Atlantic allows a second shot and both Op & C go onto develop blocking:

 

 

They take their time and all late in FI.

 

GEM remains solid with heights more rigid to the NE: 

 

A few tweeks and that could be very good, but not bad as it stands.

 

ECM still edging towards the heights to our NE, however not far enough west or north, and a sinker; we again just miss out on the cold on this scenario:

 

T216:  T240:  

 

London ens showing below average temps in week 2, improved chances of snow, but still no clear signal for a wintry spell:

 

 

So my take is maybe a close miss on the first shot at a HLB but a second shot looks possible on the GFS, though EC32 not liking this as much.

Edited January 7, 2014 by i'm dreaming of...

[bluearmy]

ECM split flow pendulum swings back again with less headed se so we see less of an undercutting theme to the run. I wonder if the ens will reflect that?

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

ECM split flow pendulum swings back again with less headed se so we see less of an undercutting theme to the run. I wonder if the ens will reflect that?

Hmm i actually thought the ECM looks reasonable nick?

Certainly the scandy high looks fairly robust with a secondary ridge thrown down from the Arctic at 240.

Battle Royal on the way a very very fluid setup...

[KTtom]

I'm sure some will no doubt put another positive spin on the overnight models in terms of cold, indeed if you live in Scandinavia and northern Europe it is a great run, however, so long as we keep the low heights around southern Greenland / Iceland then we will be governed by south westerlies as we are for the vast majority of the ECM run. As above it looks like close but no cigar for the mid January  timeframe and we'll need another bite of the cherry late in the month to hopefully back up the Mets delayed colder spell in Feb.