Model Output Discussion 1st January 2014-06z onwards.

[Biggin]

Shedhead is 100% wrong about GFS in summer. It constantly tried to bring in the Atlantic, and he backed it, only for the high to win out, leaving us with a great summer. Shed was led astray during summer by the GFS, and constantly forecast breakdowns that never came. Short memories!

Yep I remember that too and commented on it at the time

[Downpour]

 

urghh, more rain.

More flooding potential with deep lows lining up!

For Friday WEEK. Chances of it verifying - zero.

[Barry12]

So far even the best ECM runs over the past few days have kept the cold to the East of the UK, so I'm not sure where we are going to get the cold from. I know all it takes is the pattern to be a few hundred miles further west and we can be in business, but we haven't actually seen that happen yet. We could get good synoptics and then easily still miss out on the cold. We need to see at least one run show the cold reaching the UK to start getting excited.

[Summer Sun]

Latest AO update shows it slowly moving to positive then slightly negative before going positive again

 

 

Latest NAO update goes slightly negative next week before going upwards again

 

Edited January 6, 2014 by Summer Sun

[The PIT]

Blimey we may get an fI air frost (T135) the first since November if it survives the journey into the reliable time frame. So far every cooler period has been mostly watered down to either a single cold day or just an average day.

In Deep FI the Atlantic powers back up possibly a bit too strongly but it's there. This is a trend we don't want too see. If I'm reading the other thread correctly there could be a stratosphere warming event in 14 days according to one post. If that's case possible vortex split towards the end of the month or at least a weakening of it????

[Biggin]

Big steps.

 

12z

 

 

6z

Signs of the v cold weather leaving lessening in the US too

[weather eater]

 

 

 

Half of the major LW features different. That's some inter run variation!

The broad sweep is the same and going the same way, an easterly doesn’t look around the corner to me, I wish it were otherwise.

[Dancerwithwings]

this is what the gfs does when it decides to lose the plot!!

 

looks like the gfs is going to explode 920mb low must be a new record surely

 

Mathematically defined surface called an event horizon that marks the point of no return..... I think for Iceland there's no escape

[Summer Sun]

Latest temperature outlook from GFS for the next 8 days and parts of the north and east are now showing some blues and greys along with all of Ireland so slightly below average is possible here but in general the picture is unchanged with the vast majority of Europe staying above average

 

 

Normal temps left expected temps right

 

[Paul_1978]

Not cold enough. If that was to happen after having a some cold over UK for some time it would be a different story.

 

uhum.

 

Nothing good there.

It's 252 hours away. Not going to happen, especially after everything we've read about the GFS this afternoon. The person who liked the post should really know better. But it didn't show cold, hence the "like" I guess.

[Summer Sun]

t96 and t120 now out from UKMO t72 remains stuck at the time of posting

 

 

EDIT t144 out now

 

 

850's

 

Edited January 6, 2014 by Summer Sun

[Purga]

Hurricane alert!

 

Another wild 'solution' from GFS

[SMU]

Why would he be ecstatic, just wondering? to see heights shunted east, the Atlantic sweeping through and a return to general zonality.. I'd have thought that would make him rather sad.

 

 

Afternoon Draztik

 

I think maybe you should take yourself out of the GFS cacoon for a few moments...

 

 

I think everyday for at least the last 7 outlined why the GFS is 'expected' to be wrong- NB expected. As once in a blue moon it gets it correct. If by now you are still placing faith in a model that: 

NCEP regularly dismiss it: even to the point of chastising it

UKMET dont even have it ( or probably compare it to the game PONG at lunch time )

The seasoned regulars on here have no time for it...

the varification stats put it sometimes second- sometimes 4th ( & thats the BEST run- of the 4 operationals- of whcih 3 will be even worse)

 

if of course you choose to put that ahead of all the others then thats your bed-

 

 

However for those of us who set about showing to the members on here why a model is wrong-

* its known faults

* the inter run model bias

 

Then you come out the other side knowing that your backing the rank outsider.

 

 

The GFS now since the 18z through now to the 12z has been seen by most viewers on here & have seen the high'resurection' from a pancake non existant on the 12z yesterday to this today

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014010612/gfsnh-0-180.png?12

 

A ridge with energy undercutting.- but of coursde into low res & it all goes THROUGH the block.

 

UKMO NA at this moment in time.

 

 

Am I ecstatic- not really as if you expect something to happen within a model then it does exactly as planned- all it does is confirm the ' no faith ' in that model.

 

However yourself & the other GFS die hards will have seen my post this morning changing the emphasis to %age/ confidence based commentary.

Sure the GFS only got 10%- but to be fair it only deserved 10%.

 

Hopefully from the 12z GFS & perhaps its ensembles you will have seen again how for th second week running it flails about beind the ECM/ UKMO/ JMA/ GEM- possibly even the TEITS crayon method of 1998........

 

Best regards

Steve

[Purga]

UKMO not very amplified and rather zonal unfortunately

 

 

[Matty M]

UKMO not very amplified and rather zonal unfortunately

 

 

Yep, appears UKMO says NO.

 

Crucial ECMWF coming up.

[draztik]

No offense Steve, but I stopped reading after your first few sentences as I knew where your bias and repugnant tone was headed...

I observe all the models and the ensembles. Your bias for cold clouds your overall judgment and your ability to communicate with people who do not always see it as you do.

 

Back to the models, UKMO does not look good for heights to our NE. Wish we could see its next frame.

[weather eater]

Yep, appears UKMO says NO.

 

Crucial ECMWF coming up.

I doubt it will be crucial matty, there is more mileage to come from this I suspect, lots more debate to be had yet, no problem with that just as long as it doesn’t get personal.

[cooling climate]

It perhaps depends upon which perspective (time-wise) you are looking at it CC.

 

In the shorter term you are completely correct, with just enough of a ridge at 100mb to give us the interest around Scandinavia towards the end of this week but nothing too significant currently modelled...that could still change but for now it looks mostly cool and dry (thank goodness) with perhaps Western areas more prone to something less settled.

 

However it has been stressed by numerous posters ever since September that this winter would be one that required patience. Most of the stratospheric posters have not been expecting anything of too much excitement until later in January and towards February, and to that extent there are some very encouraging signs this morning.

 

The first being this:

 

 

With the E-P Flux forecast finally heading somewhere a little more poleward which helps to deflect wave activity to where we want it to be going.

 

The other encouraging thing though from a tropospheric point of view should be this:

 

 

A scandinavian high is a classic tropospheric precursor to an increase in wave 2 activity a little way down the line. Remember December 2012, the failed 'beast from the east'? The high really stalled out over Scandinavia...but a few weeks later we started to see the an increase in both wave 1 and wave 2 activity (wave 1 I believe was driven by the pattern over the pacific) and come early January 2013 we saw the results. Admittedly we would probably like to see the Scandi HP a little further North of where it is shown at present (assuming of course it does verify) but that should be an encouraging sign for anyone seeking cold - it forms the basis of Cohen's snow advance index theory, with the rapid increase in snow cover aiding the development of a siberian high which ridges Westwards in to Scandinavia and in turn leads to an increase in wave 2 activity (thanks to all kinds of feedback mechanisms) a few weeks later.

 

So in summary shorter term my punt is for cool and dry and I think that has always been the favoured scenario - along with offering relief from the relentless rainfall and strong winds. But it is longer term prospects that continue to excite and up until now this sits bang in line with the majority of winter forecasts.

 

SK

[Hotspur62]

Come on guys,lets not get to slanging match about the Models.There have been some great posts today which have been so informative to people like me still learning.Whatever your bias,lets keep to just comments on the models.Sorry if I have overstepped mark but I feel ww3 brewing on here!!

[Cumulonimbus Tower]

UKMO not very amplified and rather zonal unfortunately

 

 

Hmmm. it doesn't encourage much optomism this eve does it? All i can clutch out of that one is perhaps there are high pressure reinforcememnts heading across the atlantic from Bermuda.

[shedhead]

Afternoon Draztik

 

I think maybe you should take yourself out of the GFS cacoon for a few moments...

 

 

I think everyday for at least the last 7 outlined why the GFS is 'expected' to be wrong- NB expected. As once in a blue moon it gets it correct. If by now you are still placing faith in a model that: 

NCEP regularly dismiss it: even to the point of chastising it

UKMET dont even have it ( or probably compare it to the game PONG at lunch time )

The seasoned regulars on here have no time for it...

the varification stats put it sometimes second- sometimes 4th ( & thats the BEST run- of the 4 operationals- of whcih 3 will be even worse)

 

if of course you choose to put that ahead of all the others then thats your bed-

 

 

However for those of us who set about showing to the members on here why a model is wrong-

* its known faults

* the inter run model bias

 

Then you come out the other side knowing that your backing the rank outsider.

 

 

The GFS now since the 18z through now to the 12z has been seen by most viewers on here & have seen the high'resurection' from a pancake non existant on the 12z yesterday to this today

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014010612/gfsnh-0-180.png?12

 

A ridge with energy undercutting.- but of coursde into low res & it all goes THROUGH the block.

 

UKMO NA at this moment in time.

 

 

Am I ecstatic- not really as if you expect something to happen within a model then it does exactly as planned- all it does is confirm the ' no faith ' in that model.

 

However yourself & the other GFS die hards will have seen my post this morning changing the emphasis to %age/ confidence based commentary.

Sure the GFS only got 10%- but to be fair it only deserved 10%.

 

Hopefully from the 12z GFS & perhaps its ensembles you will have seen again how for th second week running it flails about beind the ECM/ UKMO/ JMA/ GEM- possibly even the TEITS crayon method of 1998........

 

Best regards

Steve

Despite all the above Steve the MDT has been littered by posts from your self over recent years, literally hanging on the next GFS chart and shouting from the rooftops when said chart was full of cold or cold potential, whatever the timeframe.  If you view GFS with such deep disdain, why even look at it or comment on it at all...or is it just in case that 'once in a blue moon it gets it correct' 

[ARNOTT ad]

No offense Steve, but I stopped reading after your first few sentences as I knew where your bias and repugnant tone was headed...I observe all the models and the ensembles. Your bias for cold clouds your overall judgment and your ability to communicate with people who do not always see it as you do. Back to the models, UKMO does not look good for heights to our NE. Wish we could see its next frame.

You never have anything positive and upbeat to say about chances of. Old and snow so why not lighten up and listen to what Steve says who knows more than most on here inc you and me

[SMU]

No offense Steve, but I stopped reading after your first few sentences as I knew where your bias and repugnant tone was headed...

I observe all the models and the ensembles. Your bias for cold clouds your overall judgment and your ability to communicate with people who do not always see it as you do.

 

Back to the models, UKMO does not look good for heights to our NE. Wish we could see its next frame.

 

Ok then.......

S

[bluearmy]

GEM 12z offers an interesting solution which seems to use trends from all the models to end up with the azores ridge linking over the top of a developing sceuro trough to the residual heights in n scandi. that allows for an initial scandi heights rise, a progressive atlantic moving w-e and an eventual result of high heights to our north and low ones to our south. everyone wins !!

[shaky]

Ok then.......S

lol!!given up steve!!