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Model Output Discussion 1st January 2014-06z onwards.

phil nw.

By phil nw.
in Forecast Model Discussion

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johnholmes Maestro

johnholmes

Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
Posted

Snowballz post very concisely outlines the considered professional views on the inter-model 'debate': a great post and the sort of value that this forum benefits from.

 

I agree with you Ian, both posts from SB and NS were first class and really put the position from someone involved in the 'business' and one as an amateur (no disrespect whatever intended) and yourself with access into the Exeter thinking.

I really do commend the posts and comments from Ian to everyone, and that is from my viewpoint as an ex forecaster.

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Snowman. Accomplished

Snowman.

Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
Posted

And on top of that Paul Hudson at lunchtime said that there isn't even the slightest glimpse of any cold or snowy weather in the near future and beyond Posted Image

Weather forecasters have to be careful of when using the 's' word as snow is very hard to predict at such a range and can fail to even be predicted hours in advance. I wouldn't get too hung up on what the BBC has to say about the current situation and just wait for this period of uncertainty to pass. 

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Cheshire Freeze Maestro

Cheshire Freeze

Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
Posted (edited)

Well the 12z is certainly trying to put up a better fight!

 

Posted Image

 

Could be a 'eureka!' moment for the GFS here.

Edited by CreweCold
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Snowman. Accomplished

Snowman.

Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
Posted

Big steps.

 

12zPosted Image

 

 

6zPosted Image

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johnholmes Maestro

johnholmes

Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
Posted

Weather forecasters have to be careful of when using the 's' word as snow is very hard to predict at such a range and can fail to even be predicted hours in advance. I wouldn't get too hung up on what the BBC has to say about the current situation and just wait for this period of uncertainty to pass. 

 

the point of the post perhaps is it is NOT what the BBC say it is a professional forecaster making that statement.

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Yarmy Maestro

Yarmy

Posted
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Hoar Frost, Snow, Misty Autumn mornings
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
Posted

Back to the models..

 

6zPosted Image12zPosted Image

 

I'll let you decide

 

If only I could.Posted Image

 

Anyway, less progressive and lower heights over Europe, stronger heights to the N.

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nick sussex Maestro

nick sussex

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
Posted (edited)

Woah!!thats quite a difference at just 126 hours!!looks better to me than the 06z!!

Yes moving in the right direction, the GFS trend is certainly towards the ECM especially over the USA. I think we could still do with a westwards correction and more dig south in the jet to the west but overall not bad. Very happy to see the GFS developing a more favourable pattern over the eastern USA. Also really highlights just how critical small changes upstream can be to Europe.

 

Looks like Dorothy will still beat the wicked witch! see my earlier post for the cryptic message! lol Has everyone got it yet or am I showing my age, it was always on the tv at Xmas! farm, Kansas!

Edited by nick sussex
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Cheshire Freeze Maestro

Cheshire Freeze

Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
Posted

the point of the post perhaps is it is NOT what the BBC say it is a professional forecaster making that statement.

 

Yeah but surely the point is Ian Fergusson has already been on today saying there was nothing mild on the horizon (in their estimation). So the question is what is it, cold or no cold?

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Downpour Community Regular

Downpour

Posted
  • Location: North East London (E4) 147ft
  • Location: North East London (E4) 147ft
Posted

Well the 12z is certainly trying to put up a better fight!

 

Posted Image

 

Could be a 'eureka!' moment for the GFS here.

More laughable capriciousness from our mercurial American friend. Of course, if it now shows a colder solution the mildies on here will probably stop backing it...
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Snowman. Accomplished

Snowman.

Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
Posted

Still not there with ECM but definitely a step in the direction.

 

GFS http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014010612/gfsnh-0-132.png?12

 

ECM http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014010600/ECH1-144.GIF?06-12

 

Just compare the two you will see that the ECM digs deeper into the Atlantic and has heights much stronger further north.

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Cumulonimbus Tower Apprentice

Cumulonimbus Tower

Posted
  • Location: Hebden Bridge (561 ft ASL) A drug town with a tourist problem
  • Location: Hebden Bridge (561 ft ASL) A drug town with a tourist problem
Posted (edited)

Big steps.

 

Jet streak heading due north to the west of Ireland on the 12z helping to inflate the HP to the North East of the BI, as opposed to curving East over the top of Scotland and flattening out the pattern previously. This could well be the GFS climb down that has been so much anticipated!

 

...and is that hints of a trigger Low at 156 heading into Europe? Maybe too much to ask for in one run ;)

Edited by Cumulonimbus Tower
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johnholmes Maestro

johnholmes

Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
Posted

Yeah but surely the point is Ian Fergusson has already been on today saying there was nothing mild on the horizon (in their estimation). So the question is what is it, cold or no cold?

 

a statement by someone not employed by the Met Office but Look North but Paul is a qualified Met O forecaster, why he has said this it is best to pm/e mail him, he is very approachable. All Met forecasters use the terms mild, v mild, rather cold, cold in an exact meaning, see the terminology I have posted several times.

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Snowman. Accomplished

Snowman.

Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
Posted (edited)

the point of the post perhaps is it is NOT what the BBC say it is a professional forecaster making that statement.

 

That's very contradicting as, I thought the BCC received there information from the MetO?

 

6 - 15 days.

 

"Temperatures are likely to be near or a little above normal at first but turn rather colder with an increasing risk of frost, ice and fog."

 

Nvm just seen what you have posted.

Edited by SN0WM4N
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Cloud 10 Veteran

Cloud 10

Posted
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl
Posted

Quite a change in the GFS 12z from yesterday for its Sunday prediction,a sizeable backtrack.

 

today..  yesterday..

 

 

An encouraging start for the 12z'sPosted Image 

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shaky Veteran

shaky

Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester
Posted

Quite a change in the GFS 12z from yesterday for its Sunday prediction,a sizeable backtrack.

 

today..Posted Imagegfsnh-0-144.png  yesterday..Posted Imagegfsnh-2014010512-0-168.png

 

 

An encouraging start for the 12z'sPosted Image 

Brilliant stuff and now hopefully a good ukmo!!beem a long time since the ukmo pulled out a good run!!
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Snowman. Accomplished

Snowman.

Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
Posted (edited)

I've seen enough of the GFS run but some promising signals for a good old fashioned GFS backtrack.

 

Would like to see what the UKMO has to offer.

 

EDIT: UKMO is actually further west than its 6z run with slightly better heights north as well.

Edited by SN0WM4N
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nick sussex Maestro

nick sussex

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
Posted

What an exciting start to the evening outputs that is if you're a coldie! its still an evolving pattern, I certainly hope that now the GFS has moved towards the ECM that it collects the baton and finishes the relay!

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Snowman. Accomplished

Snowman.

Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
Posted

What's this, jet going under?! Lows tilted NW-SE?! Good lord!

 

Posted Image

Maybe.

 

Posted Image

Still some heading north but a lot more going south.

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shaky Veteran

shaky

Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester
Posted

Already things things further west at only 60 hours on the ukmo!!compare this morning 72 hours to its updated 60 hours right now!!defo further west!!quick before it updates.

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Cecil Hogmanay Melchett Community Regular

Cecil Hogmanay Melchett

Posted
Posted

What an exciting start to the evening outputs that is if you're a coldie! its still an evolving pattern, I certainly hope that now the GFS has moved towards the ECM that it collects the baton and finishes the relay!

GFS 12Z has certainly moved in the right direction Nick.:)

Still not really seeing where any cold for the UK is going to come from though....

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SNOWPLOUGH Rookie

SNOWPLOUGH

Posted
  • Location: Dublin 131.2 feet asl (40m asl)m
  • Location: Dublin 131.2 feet asl (40m asl)m
Posted

Looking like the Steve Murr GFS backtrack to the ECM is underway, were not there yet, interesting developments though.

We need everything to move a little more to the west in next few runs now...UKMO needs to be onside too.

Dan

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