Model Output Discussion 1st January 2014-06z onwards.

[SMU]

Morning All-

 

I think in the balance of fairness Im going to slightly change my onslaught again the GFS to a confidence based %age on the solution, I will just do the big 3

 

So then based on the 00z suite & ensemble analysis I would rate the models as the following.

 

 

ECMWF-  65% in overall long wave pattern out day 10.

 

I have high confidence that the ECM has the trough location nailed at 96

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014010600/ECH1-96.GIF?06-12

Note off the NE coast of the states tilted slightly on a NE SW axis ( IE heading Slightly SE)

 

As a result the proposed ridging ahead of this low shows again at 144

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014010600/ECH1-144.GIF?06-12

with the Ensemble mean in agreement

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014010600/EDH1-144.GIF?06-12  

Track of WAA west of Ireland.

 

Further to that, the Scandi build looks plausible if not probable with subtle variations being the determining factor as to how much upper cold filters to the UK-

I would say the UK could hit a range between -2c & -10c at the coldest end of the runs.

The operational at 168-192 sits nicely in the middle of that pack.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014010600/ECU0-192.GIF?06-12

 

Its basically going to be how much Easterly component we get into the flow @ 168-192.

 

Also post this, good inter - run consistency from the ECM with heights wedged into Scandi at a 'reasonable' height & some idea of a trough digging SE in the atlantic to possibly support undercutting.

The T2M's show very cold surface air to debilt, which makes it hard to differentiate the true cold upper air runs-

http://www.knmi.nl/exp/pluim/vijftiendaagse/index.php?run=00

The wind direction shows around a 50% clustering for winds in between NE & SE

http://www.weerplaza.nl/15daagseverwachting/?type=eps_pluim

 

As said confidence 65% in evolution , the high may get higher amplitude & we get colder, or slightly less & the UK sees southerly winds as opposed to Easterly winds- in which case warmer but essentially still dry.

 

 

 

UKMO  -  25%

GFS -  10%   Blend-

 

The 96 hour UKMO & GFS both place the trough axis of that low either N-S ( UKMO)

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2014010600/UN96-21.GIF?06-06

& the GFS 96 has it tilted NW-SE

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014010600/gfsnh-0-96.png?0

 

As a result both the EURO & GFS have more forward motion in the atlantic & vis a vee less ridging.-

UKMO is exactly the halfway house solution, however critically looks to have enough upward motion of that ridging high to still develop a high pressure over scandi. It may be the warmer southerly wind solution I referred to OR COULD be get with a possible trigger low @ 144

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2014010600/UN144-21.GIF?06-06

 

Shown over southern Scandi as an open wave.

 

Finally GFS -

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014010600/gfsnh-0-150.png?0

The most forward motion- hence the least upward ridging- the high pressure ( of what there is of it) is tilted positive- but by to much hence it becomes an overrunning pattern-

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014010600/gfsnh-0-162.png?0

 

 

IN SUMMARY:

 

Strong confidence in the ECM today, its been mighty at day 5/6 in the last 2 weeks & Strong at day 7/8 ( barring a few exceptions ) where as the gfs has been poor with the resolution of things like the lows track over the states at just day 4- as a result wild swings to the euros have been evident in the last 3-4 days to include blocking.

 

Stick with the ECM & the ridge in the atlantic, I fully expect it to be correct- hence the high confidence, I also expect Ians update to be of a similar ilk today.

GFS will fall into line.

 

s

Edited January 6, 2014 by Steve Murr

[carinthian]

Right on target our snow computer correctly predicted 25cm of snowfall this weekend.  It just amazes me how accurate this fine mesh model is in providing results for individual locations with-in a few square kilometers. How we would wish the longer term models to be the same.

Rescue awaits a snow starved soggy Britain before it is about to drain away down the Atlantic plug hole for good and its not Noah and his Ark. Yes, its rising pressure. The weekend should see an improvement broadly across the British Isle with  temperatures starting to fall. Early next week, we in Central Europe are progged for much lower temperatures and some snowfall, albeit the snow computer predicts fairly light falls. Can the UK tap into this much colder source pushing  down into mainland Europe ? Well our forecast models continue to show the presence of pressure falls to the SW of the British Isles ( period 144-196 hrs ) . This will be your best scenario for advecting some cold.

We think the UKMO may be also going along these lines or at least showing lower temperature profiles for the UK from this weekend.

 

c

[shaky]

When I look at the ecm mean it does look like a battleground scenario across the uk especially between 192-240 hours!!to my untrained eye it showing undercutting lows going into europe!!what do you think steve?obviously it looks a little bit watered out but thats because its the mean!

[shedhead]

No change across Europe for the next 8 days which takes us to the half way point of winter on the 14th with the majority of Europe staying above average

 

 

Average temps left expected temps right

 

Clearly we don't have to like it, but I guess we do have to admire the sheer persistence and strength of the European warmth anomoly this winter, because it is now starting to look pretty damn impressive...and much of continental Europe looks set to become even warmer this week!!

[Frosty.]

CFSv2 keeping winter temperatures above average through January and March, and keeping us wet too!

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/htmls/euT2me2Mon.html

Looking forward to CFSv3 then..third time lucky

[fergieweather]

UKMO are running with only one key modification to their GM at T+144: shifting positionally & deepening the low centre out west to effectively match the EC solution (but Ops Centre stress the great uncertainty, given how GFS runs the low much higher around Lat 60N).

Into trend period, Shannon Entropy shifts to high levels and does so for the first time in a number of weeks. This alone should reinforce great caution on assessment of, e.g., NCEP's dogged return to zonality or for that matter any opposite extreme.

We aren't yet into timeframe of main NWP output where some key pattern changes may start to emerge towards turn of month.

[BeastFromTheEast]

While mindful of IFs post regarding GloSea5, the other models GFS, ECM, etc do not use previous weather patterns as such, by that I mean that they don’t hold records of what happened on such and such a date, make comparisons and recalculate future synoptics based on what happened in the past, they are a pure mathematical model, they simulate the climate, in simple terms the latest data goes in and a result comes out, obviously they are constantly monitored in regards their performance and updated usually every few years.

 

Thank you for that bit of info, I asked a similar question a few weeks back as to whether the models were organic and "learnt" as they went along and gained new information. I would have thought by now with they available computing power that a model would have been able to do this by now. Is this what GloSea5 does?  

[Frosty.]

UKMO are running with only one key modification to their GM at T+144: shifting positionally & deepening the low centre out west to effectively match the EC solution (but Ops Centre stress the great uncertainty, given how GFS runs the low much higher around Lat 60N).

Into trend period, Shannon Entropy shifts to high levels and does so for the first time in a number of weeks. This alone should reinforce great caution on assessment of, e.g., NCEP's dogged return to zonality or for that matter any opposite extreme.

We aren't yet into timeframe of main NWP output where some key pattern changes may start to emerge towards turn of month.

so there is hope for february then or march?

[SMU]

So the UKMET Correcting west to the ECM solution.- Not surprising really..... much higher confidence & agreement.

 

 

GFS correcting west @90 but not enough to save the 06z from the bin.

 

S

even the 06z NAVGEM has caught up.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/navgeme_cartes.php?ech=6&code=0&mode=0&carte=1&archive=0

Edited January 6, 2014 by Steve Murr

[Downpour]

So the UKMET Correcting west to the ECM solution.- Not surprising really..... much higher confidence & agreement.  GFS correcting west @90 but not enough to save the 06z from the bin. Seven the 06z NAVGEM has caught up.http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/navgeme_cartes.php?ech=6&code=0&mode=0&carte=1&archive=0

Indeed Steve. The 6z looks like fodder for the cannon. A pattern change is now afoot - thankfully. Epping Forest has become one giant puddle. Bone dry down here after tomorrow. FI starts after the weekend. All to play for.

[fergieweather]

so there is hope for february then or march?

Too early to be indicative.

[Downpour]

Clearly we don't have to like it, but I guess we do have to admire the sheer persistence and strength of the European warmth anomoly this winter, because it is now starting to look pretty damn impressive...and much of continental Europe looks set to become even warmer this week!!

There will be ice cream vans in hell before I "admire" evil mildness in the midst of winter.

[Troubleatmill]

Cant see much point in looking past charts like this on the 06z, i mess of shortwaves and height rises knocking around all over the place, giving what happens afterwards little credibility mild or Cold 

[bobbydog]

So the UKMET Correcting west to the ECM solution.- Not surprising really..... much higher confidence & agreement.

 

 

GFS correcting west @90 but not enough to save the 06z from the bin.

 

S

even the 06z NAVGEM has caught up.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/navgeme_cartes.php?ech=6&code=0&mode=0&carte=1&archive=0

 

which is a shame, as it ends on a very 'interesting' note-

 

[Cloud 10]

Lots of scatter in the 00z ECM ensembles,but crucially the operational and the control

run both following the same cold path.

 

 

 

 

[Purga]

After an uninspiring set of runs this morning the 06z FI is fraught with potential

The fact that it is has virtually no chance of occuring like that doesn't detract from the general trend that the block to the NE seems to be holding.

So grateful for small mercies.

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

Lots of scatter in the 00z ECM ensembles,but crucially the operational and the control

run both following the same cold path.

 

15DAAGSE_06260_NWT (2).png

Lots of scatter? The vast majority look poor,one hopes the op and control are leading the way or its a long wait for something cold!

[MR EXTREMES]

this is the chart that would deserve a full on ramp

and the gem to

as you can see lowering heights into Europe wedge of heights heading northeast on the gem but the jma is a peach with heights right where you need it to be.

Europe over all into Russia and Scandinavia look likely to get much colder as for us location location springs to mind.

 

good post by steve murr and snowking today intresting thoughts indeed.

 

over all I still believe middle ground more likely as far as the models go out,as the vortex is not disrupted enough just yet for a clear cut run into colder uk weather although it must be stressed the middle ground im talking of being heights close or around the uk giving us a welcome break from the alantic onslaught and being settled enough for ground frost and slightly below day time temps.

 

there is how ever a slow build on heights becoming established in a more favoured spot for cold although still remaining in fi, I don't really see enough relaxation of some certain teleconnections to really build into something favourable at this time although I think we need to get a few more days of cross model agreement to secure and warrant a mass rush to buy a sledge.

 

from my reading of the charts today ive seen double step back by the ukmo but by far not the worst im intrigued to see if the gfs could be correct in rebooting the alantic later in fi.

 

but over all at this moment in time I do think a more middle ground situation is most likely so atleast the uk can dry out a bit.

[fergieweather]

The new update summary just posted by my UKMO colleagues at BBC Weather Centre precisely replicates what Ops Centre are currently considering as probable outcome:

"Monday 20 January—Sunday 2 February

Staying unsettled... at first

Whilst current indications point towards unsettled weather persisting through much of the rest of January, conditions are expected to be more typically unsettled for the winter season. Certainly early in this fortnight the pressure looks set to remain low to the southwest of Iceland.However, and this would be quite a change for this winter, there are some signals emerging for an increasing risk of a change to colder weather types towards the end of January. This would increase the potential for more settled conditions, leaving a lower risk of wet and windy spells than has recently been the case."

[Frosty.]

I hope that colder risk includes snow and not just fine and dry.

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

The new update summary just posted by my UKMO colleagues at BBC Weather Centre precisely replicates what Ops Centre are currently considering as probable outcome:"Monday 20 January—Sunday 2 FebruaryStaying unsettled... at firstWhilst current indications point towards unsettled weather persisting through much of the rest of January, conditions are expected to be more typically unsettled for the winter season. Certainly early in this fortnight the pressure looks set to remain low to the southwest of Iceland.However, and this would be quite a change for this winter, there are some signals emerging for an increasing risk of a change to colder weather types towards the end of January. This would increase the potential for more settled conditions, leaving a lower risk of wet and windy spells than has recently been the case."

Thanks Ian,so we can pretty much write off Jan for cold (apart from maybe) the last few days.

Sounds to me like they are discounting any potential cold evolution from the ECM then..

[Cloud 10]

Lots of scatter? The vast majority look poor,one hopes the op and control are leading the way or its a long wait for something cold!

 

Glass still half full!

 

[Panayiotis]

Well I think the CFS models have the right solutions!

 

Edited January 6, 2014 by Panayiotis

[shedhead]

The new update summary just posted by my UKMO colleagues at BBC Weather Centre precisely replicates what Ops Centre are currently considering as probable outcome:"Monday 20 January—Sunday 2 FebruaryStaying unsettled... at firstWhilst current indications point towards unsettled weather persisting through much of the rest of January, conditions are expected to be more typically unsettled for the winter season. Certainly early in this fortnight the pressure looks set to remain low to the southwest of Iceland.However, and this would be quite a change for this winter, there are some signals emerging for an increasing risk of a change to colder weather types towards the end of January. This would increase the potential for more settled conditions, leaving a lower risk of wet and windy spells than has recently been the case."

Thanks Ian...everything remains on track then, just hope it actually delivers for the last third of Winter.

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

Glass still half full!

 

download.jpg

I think it more pragmatism-but believe me i want the op and control to be leading the way.Trouble is,thats my heart talking ....