Model Output Discussion 1st January 2014-06z onwards.

[chris55]

As Barry Davies once said, interesting!

 

 

And look at that cold pooling to our east.  Lovely stuff

 

 

 

 

Thats a decent 168 from ECM!!

Edited January 5, 2014 by chris55

[IDO]

http://images.meteociel.fr/im/2879/ECH1-168_mie1.GIFOver, under or through?

 

 

GEM split the Atlantic low after T168, and one went over the Scandi ridge and the other went under.

 

I can see why this is a complicated set up that may take a little while to resolve.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Thats the 00z

 

bottom one is, but top one is 12Z

[Ice Day]

Thats the 00z

 

Doh, good spot.  Point stands though as below!

 

[london and south east kent]

ecm looking good to me,,,

[Mucka]

JMA also looking at GFS like it has just escaped from a psychiatric ward.

 

Edited January 5, 2014 by Mucka

[Panayiotis]

Great stuff!

[ukpaul]

ECM 168h is almost exatly the same as tonight's JMA and not far off the GEM. GFS is as different to these as you could imagine at that range.

Edited January 5, 2014 by ukpaul

[chris55]

168 in wetter format. Nice "lean" to the Low to our west, should help build pressure in our vicinity!.

 

[bluearmy]

the ecm op has the triple point over se england as the trough disrupts at day 8. too much detail but you get the idea.

[Purga]

Close but not quite there on this run I think

 

[Panayiotis]

We just need an injection of a shortwave SE under the block , and the cold will be ours!

[Tim Bland]

All output seems to be getting gradually better. GFS will be dragged into line over the next few days

[nick sussex]

A very good trend from the ECM, its not a big deal if we don't see a deep cold easterly here, the key is the earlier timeframe. If you take the GFS out of the equation then overall a positive evening for coldies.

 

If we can manage even more dig south and a more elongated troughing set up to the west then the Scandi high should land.

[Snowman.]

Close but not quite there on this run I think

 

Not enough trough disruption east. But unlikely to sink as its under pressure from both sides.

[Johnp]

Close but not quite there on this run I think

 

Also proven you make knee jerk reactions to early stages of runs.

[SE Blizzards]

Close but not quite there on this run I think

 

 

But way way better than the wretched GFS. The potential on that chart is for all to see.

[Man With Beard]

ECM T192 looks like a Scandi High is getting established with cold likely to come in off the continent by T216/T240 ... the HP cell causing this was showing on some GFS op runs on Friday, GFS has currently dropped the idea but interesting to see ECM picking it up.

 

Edit: not perfectly positioned at T216 but cold coming in:

 

Edited January 5, 2014 by rjbw

[Cloud 10]

The ECM shoots and scores!

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014010512/ECH1-192.GIF?05-0

 

 

Scandi wins 5-1

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UdeQdZafdpg

[Panayiotis]

Doesnt quite happen at 216hrs but a nice wedge is up north, and the cold pool is expanding over Europe! Very cold over eastern Scotland, could easily reach -8C in those conditions...

All we need is a trigger (eg a shortwave) to run under the block, and the cold will be coming our way!

Edited January 5, 2014 by Panayiotis

[Ice Day]

Those cold uppers to our East are tantalisingly close at 216.  Really encouraging trends!

 

[Barry12]

The -8 uppers are not too far away!

 

[Joe Levy]

Those cold uppers to our East are tantalisingly close at 216.  Really encouraging trends!

 

If there were any more westward corrections on future runs (and it is a big if), then those cold uppers could end up right over us!

[Purga]

216hr chart & we're just on the borderline

 

[chris55]

192 - 216 ECM. getting there!