Model Output Discussion 1st January 2014-06z onwards.

[shedhead]

Time for a big straw to clutch...GFS for 17th Jan 2013

 

 

17 Jan 1947...

 

 

Not a million miles different, then from the above to this in a week...

 

Edited January 5, 2014 by shedhead

[SMU]

Morning All-

 

I see some optimism above- WHY>?

 

Remember the post last night #898 about the 12z ECM being bizarre & to much energy moving NE?

 

The JMA pattern at 192?

 

Now look at the change in ECM pattern from yesterdays 168

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/archives/2014010412/ECH1-168.GIF?12

 

to todays 168

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014010500/ECH1-168.GIF?05-12

 

we see that the jet is more amplified with energy creeping ALL important SE off the main thrust North ( a good precursor)

Now look at the 144 MEAN

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014010500/EDH1-144.GIF?05-12  good symmetry with the OPerational which goes onto build a more robust high

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014010500/EDH1-168.GIF?05-12

 

 

finally the best T2M temps of the winter so for for Debilt with a clear swing to cold

http://www.knmi.nl/exp/pluim/vijftiendaagse/index.php?run=00

 

& the best chart to last the wind direction-

 

The first time the easterly options have outweighed the westerly solutions

 

http://www.weerplaza.nl/15daagseverwachting/?type=eps_pluim

 

Overall a great overnight excluding the ever isolated GFS.

 

S 

 

 

 

[Fozfoster]

Time for a big straw to clutch...GFS for 17th Jan 2013

17 Jan 1947...

Not a million miles different, then from the above to this in a week...

stop it shed!!!! Edited January 5, 2014 by Fozfoster

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

 

 

ECM at 144. I challenge anyone to rule out the Atlantic LP being 400 miles west with a little more of the core jet stream to our south. We are really close.

 

 

Loads of possibility there. Plenty of time for it to change in our favour.

I agree, we are really close here. And the closeness stays which suggests to me every chance of getting involved. Like I said yesterday or day before the window remains and its very much still there.

BFTP

[The Eagle]

 

Not surprised with the good mood. Look at where the center of the high is on the ECM ensemble mean at 168. Sure it does not quite work out on this occasion but the main thing is we have taken a MAJOR step toward cold this morning when you take the ECM and GFS in to account. 

[Polar Maritime]

Is that Shed ramping..

 

The trend seems to keep growing stronger for a colder last 3rd of Jan, very positive signs from the models this morning. I think this is where the real interest starts as the models start to look beyond the turnaround point over the coming days. Very interesting times for us model watches.

[IDO]

So its about T120 when we see our first shot at heights building to the NE. As the Atlantic slows we see ridging heading to the uk and to Scandi from there. GEM says yes to this being a success:

 

  ECM says not quite:   GFS hints at it: 

 

The 0z GEFS have about 45% succeeding with building heights towards the NE on the first shot, to different degrees: http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=1&ech=144

 

The GEFS that built those heights keep them to the east or NE, similar split by D8.

 

Every GEFS that missed the first attempt at T120, by D8 those 55% all remain Zonal: http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=1&ech=192

 

If we assume that it is similar with the ECM ens, certainly the split in the Dutch ens suggests two clusters, temp wise: 

 

 D5-D6 the initialisation of the main cluster spread.

 

Then our best shot of something interesting remains with the GEM synoptics and for the success of the initial amplification.

 

Its nice to have a possible shot of something interesting within the higher res.

 

 

[chionomaniac]

Looking at the ECM composite anomaly charts over the last two runs we can see a trend in the right direction.

 

12Z Sat

 

 

00Z today

 

 

stronger anomaly to our NE seen on this and this is highlighted when looking at the daily anomalies.

 

We are seeing slight improvements with the NAEFS ensembles as well. 

 

[shedhead]

Is that Shed ramping..

 

The trend seems to keep growing stronger for a colder last 3rd of Jan, very positive signs from the models this morning. I think this is where the real interest starts as the models start to look beyond the turnaround point over the coming days. Very interesting times for us model watches.

Just trying to show what's possible PM, but at this stage not nescessarily probable imo.  Looking at this charts for the 17th though with it's deep Baffin PV and strong Euro High, it is encouraging to see just how quickly and dramatically things can change once heights start to build to our NE.  That is now precisely what we need to see happening.

 

Edited January 5, 2014 by shedhead

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

With the sun's recent activity and more to come next week I think the jetstream will be very much disrupted and changes sooner rather than later are anticipated. I'm surprised the models didn't kick on two days' ago, maybe today onwards

BFTP

Edited January 5, 2014 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[Ali1977]

Everything slightly further west at T84 on the 06z, this is good news I think...

[cheeky_monkey]

Looking at the ECM composite anomaly charts over the last two runs we can see a trend in the right direction.

 

12Z Sat

 

get_orig_img-1.gif

 

00Z today

 

get_orig_img.gif

 

stronger anomaly to our NE seen on this and this is highlighted when looking at the daily anomalies.

 

We are seeing slight improvements with the NAEFS ensembles as well.

still think a shift in the pacific ridge is required...needs to shunt north into alaska which will reinforce any blocking pattern to the north and east of the UK and help to push the jet southwards.

[johnholmes]

well lots of optimism from the cold brigade this morning, so this should mean a happier bunch of posts so long as the 06z does not upset the applecart. Then a few always say its not to be trusted so maybe the optimism will last at least into mid afternoon before the 12z rolls out. Who knows what that will bring?

Looking at the 500mb anomaly charts does not give me the same degree of optimism some are showing this morning. One or two even feeling cold could be arriving by 144h in the north then spreading south?

The ECMWF-GFS issue this morning is below-it cannot be said that they have been consistent either with one another or even themselves.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

 

They both show a ridge and +ve heights developing in a similar area but it is east of where they previously had any suggestion of them. Previous charts, when they did show such things had it further west, from the pole into Greenland.

Meantime the NOAA outputs from last evening, see below, have been pretty consistent with the idea of the main +ve area being pole towards Greenland but with some suggestion at times of heights building, even with a ridge suggestion east of this.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php

 

So I would keep my optimism below the 50% mark still. Too much lack of continuity between the 3 outputs to be really sure the northern block, especially NE is going to happen. It does look feasible but no more than that currently. Certainly the upper air predictions over the last 5-7 days do not support the idea of the cold starting by 144h in the north. IF it does then it seems to be some 72h at least later and possibly not before 144h, could be even longer before everything fits sufficiently well. I remain sitting on the fence for another 3-4 days at least!

Looking at the Met O Fax for T+120 I can see where the optimism for an earlier start to cold is coming from. The Atlantic shows less surface activity than for a good many days, at least in terms of the intensity of the weather systems.

As ever time will tell.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120

Edited January 5, 2014 by johnholmes

[Ice Day]

Doesn't look like the 06z is going to come to the party.  Much flatter pattern, very different from the 0z at 162hrs

 

[TSNWK]

Doesn't look like the 06z is going to come to the party. Much flatter pattern, very different from the 0z at 162hrs

I was thinking it was looking a tad better, with some tentative heights over Greenland and salvboard popping up around 162

But I get the bit about being flatter and this becomes more apparent around 180 arounds, much flatter and looks poorer at the end of hi res.

Edited January 5, 2014 by TSNWK

[Ice Day]

I was thinking it was looking a tad better, with some tentative heights over Greenland and salvboard popping up around 162

 

I would love to be wrong, but to my very much untrained eye, it all looks a bit too mobile and flat to me.  This at 186

 

 

Still time though!

Edited January 5, 2014 by Ice Day

[TSNWK]

I would love to be wrong, but to my very much untrained eye, it all looks a bit too mobile and flat to me.  This at 186

 

Nope you were correct, I just edited my post above as well. Good call, sadly.....

[Ice Day]

Nope you were correct, I just edited my post above as well. Good call, sadly.....

 

Nothing to worry about though, it's the 6z and we all know how poor that is!!!!!!!!!!

Edited January 5, 2014 by Ice Day

[TSNWK]

06z is poor. Time to enjoy the last day off before returning to work. Roll on the 12z folks.

[legritter]

Yes we need to keep our shoes firmly on the ground us coldies ,but some good signs creeping into the Models now .as i said ,if a big pattern change is out there i still expect swings of the main models ,so something of interest ,but next36 hrs could be very interesting .BUT good things sometimes takes time .catch up with you all later after tonights runs ,cheers .

[bluearmy]

Bit late but the extended ECM ens are similar to the past couple runs. The battleground between the Atlantic and scandi blocking moved back over the UK again. This placement of the meeting of the two air masses will no doubt move around, run to run. The fact that the same overall pattern survives, run to run, is what's important. the Canadian vortex in the mid range digs the trough in the USA and does not push a lobe into the Atlantic. That allows ridging in our general locale of th NH. The jet then gets a further kick towards the end of week 2 and if we don't have our blocking in situ by then, we will no doubt succumb to it again. As per last weeks modelling, it all depends on the euro heights. they are again modelled by ECM to drop. both gefs and ECM were wrong about this last week. Is ECM right this time??

[MR EXTREMES]

well we are starting to see signs of more consistency from the models now more so out to around t144hrs.

my only concern would be that the strat charts do show a split in the vortex but it soon reforms back to Greenland now can you have a reformed strat and have remaining heights to our ne?

 

would this type of scandi block and vortex over Greenland aid with more low pressure systems running se into Europe and under the block?

[Cloud 10]

Doesn't look like the 06z is going to come to the party. 

 

 

 

 

But I get the bit about being flatter and this becomes more apparent around 180 arounds, much flatter and looks poorer at the end of hi res.

 

[weather eater]

Just trying to show what's possible PM, but at this stage not nescessarily probable imo.  Looking at this charts for the 17th though with it's deep Baffin PV and strong Euro High, it is encouraging to see just how quickly and dramatically things can change once heights start to build to our NE.  That is now precisely what we need to see happening.

 

Indeed Shed and had this forum been around then there would have been much despondency, strong PV, big euro high I won’t use the B word, just goes to show what can happen. However things right across the NH were different then, arctic ice extent for one thing, back then sea ice coverage in August was as great as it is now at its greatest winter extent, so the winter ice pack back then must have been vast, I’m sure someone can find some data on that. My own theory and I stress that. Is that there is a correlation between winter sea ice cover and the prevalence of HLB across Greenland and Scandinavia and I seriously doubt if we could get another 47 or 63 unless that changes, leastwise our odds against it are substantially greater now. That of course doesn’t mean we can’t get HLB at all as recent years have shown, just that it’s less likely, certainly less likely to be of that extreme nature.

The 06z is out now but it’s done nothing to change my mind, although post mid range it looks substantially different from the 00z, the central theme remains, zonal, MLB, back to zonal, although there are again some hints at HLB it never really gets off the ground and only has a minimal impact on us.

[Blizzardof82]

GFS 6z does it's usual and steam rolls the Atlantic through as soon as it reaches low res.