Model Output Discussion 1st January 2014-06z onwards.

[Frosty.]

Very wintry weather could be on the way soon, i'm not giving up on this..  

[bluearmy]

We seem to have rough x model agreement at day 5 now. What then happens remains uncertain but clearly, the momentum is with the less amplified solutions though not necessarily zonal in our latittude in our part of the NH. I wouldn't expect that we will no longer see any variations on the ops - it doesn't seem that clear cut as yet.

the trend in deep fi ens land isn't great if you're expecting a neg -AO to sustain.

The ECM extended last night showed a continuing 10/15% support for the scandi block (looking at Berlin and Warsaw). that has been consistent recently and yesterday's op was just plucked from that part of the ens. What intrigued was that the control was also from that chunk of members.

Edited January 4, 2014 by bluearmy

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

We seem to have rough x model agreement at day 5 now. What then happens remains uncertain but clearly, the momentum is with the less amplified solutions though not necessarily zonal in our latittude in our part of the NH. I wouldn't expect that we will no longer see any variations on the ops - it doesn't seem that clear cut as yet.the trend in deep fi ens land isn't great if you're expecting a neg -AO to sustain.The ECM extended last night showed a continuing 10/15% support for the scandi block (looking at Berlin and Warsaw). that has been consistent recently and yesterday's op was just plucked from that part of the ens. What intrigued was that the control was also from that chunk of members.

Its bleak Nick it really is.

This winter is fast turning into an absolute disaster for cold weather fans.

That Euro high is just a gift that keeps giving..

[weather eater]

In short the GFS sticks with zonal theme the, ECM does keep up with its blocking idea, days 8, 9, 10 but it’s all completely underwhelming for those of us looking for a pattern change to something colder, a small consolation would be that if the ECM is right about some kind of block setting up (which I seriously doubt) then its only to be expected that it will chop and change over the coming days on how that is going to evolve, so no need to get hung up on this run.

Edited January 4, 2014 by weather eater

[West is Best]

Dreadful overnight runs. There's no sign of 'pattern changes' just a continued Atlantic conveyor belt of zonality. All that promise has been sucked up by the jetstream pummelling into the UK. 

 

More of the same.

[Captain Shortwave]

Well the ECM ens seem reasonably supportive of the op this morning. pressure rising over Europe bringing drier weather. There is good support for a wedge of heights drifting towards Scandinavia, unfortunately most seem to want to drive the jet over the top sinking the high into the grips of the ridge over Southern Europe.

I guess though that anything is better than more rain.

[weather eater]

Dreadful overnight runs. There's no sign of 'pattern changes' just a continued Atlantic conveyor belt of zonality. All that promise has been sucked up by the jetstream pummelling into the UK. 

 

More of the same.

One small consolation WIB is that while zonal still looks the order of the day it does appear that it’s going to run out of zip, zonal but not as vigorous from mid week, wind wise at least.

[winterof79]

Dreadful overnight runs. There's no sign of 'pattern changes' just a continued Atlantic conveyor belt of zonality. All that promise has been sucked up by the jetstream pummelling into the UK. More of the same.

This mornings medium range output does not resemble the zonal weather we have had so far.See Captains post. Edited January 4, 2014 by winterof79

[Gibby]

Good morning everyone from another wet morning in the West Country. here is the report from the NWP output from the midnight runs for today Saturday January 4th 2013, lifted from http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis(2859336).htm.

 

All models show an unstable SW flow across the UK with a disturbance carrying rain steadily North and East across Southern and Eastern areas through today followed by more showery conditions later. This showery flow will continue overnight though a small ridge is shown to cross giving rise to a drier window when a slight frost might develop in places. Tomorrow will see a very deep Low in the Western Atlantic throwing troughs well ahead of it over Britain later tomorrow with rain and strong winds followed by showers taking control later tomorrow and on Monday. On Tuesday and Wednesday this showery them continues as all models show the parent Low filling to the North of Scotland. Secondary features could give rise to more prolonged rainfall in the South towards midweek. Through all this period temperatures will remain largely close to the seasonal average but it could be just abut cold enough for some snow on Northern hills today and again towards midweek.

 

GFS then shows further troughs of Low pressure trundling Eastwards across the UK later next week in a slacker Westerly flow. With High pressure to the South these fronts could become hung up over Southern areas at times with further prolonged rain here while the North turns cooler and showery on occasion. Then later in the period a period of mild Southerly winds with rain in the West becomes replaced by further Low pressure over the UK at the end of the run with rain and showers for all.

 

UKMO next Friday shows a lobe of High pressure stretching from the Azores to Biscay with all of the UK in a slacker West to SW flow with troughs moving across from the West and maintaining the risk of rain or showers at times, especially in the North with temperatures remaining close to average.

 

GEM shows pressure building to the SE later next week with a mild Southerly flow drifting up across the UK as Low pressure areas set up shop over the Atlantic. It isn't long before troughs arrive from the West from these to affect principally Western and Southern areas then extending further North and East later.

 

NAVGEM closes it's run with a slack pressure gradient over the UK in a Westerly flow with slack High pressure to the South. Troughs would cross slowly East over the UK from the West at times, each giving rain at times though less heavy and frequent than what we have seen of late.

 

ECM today has removed it's Scandinavian High and subsequent threat of colder conditions and replaced it with High pressure to the SE and South gradually taking control. Rain on a front will eventually clear the SE late next week ahead of drier and quieter weather with overnight mist and fog and touches of frost likely with breezier and cloudier weather in the North and West with occasional rain.

 

The GFS Ensembles show a resilient pattern with very little change in temperatures over the whole period and a very Atlantic based pattern. All areas look like continuing to see rain at times with little in the way of frost, fog, ice or snow.

 

The GFS Jet Stream Forecast shows the reasons for the maintained unsettled Atlantic bias to it's track this morning as it continues to feed across the Atlantic towards Southern Britain and France through the period although some disruption is shown for a time next week which ridges it further North over the Atlantic for a time.

 

The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart this morning shows some support for something of a pressure rise over Scandinavia which should at least dry things up for the UK over time. Low pressure is shown biased towards Greenland keeping the UK under something of a trough and SW winds which would probably mean some rain at times most likely towards the North and West. I would suggest average temperatures the most likely result though frosts could become more frequent in the East closest to High pressure wherever it may be situated over Europe.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

 

In Summary this morning we have some differences of opinion on what happens once our next week depression fills up and moves away. Most models support further troughs for a time moving in off the Atlantic to continue occasional rain up to and including next weekend. There is also reasonable support for pressure rises to the South and SE with a more Southerly feed around Low pressure in the Atlantic keeping the rain risk further towards the North and West while ECM become quite anticyclonic later though with some troublesome weak troughs to clear out of the SE first whereas GFS keeps the Atlantic monsoon going throughout. There isn't much indication from anything I have seen today to suggest a shift towards cold and wintry weather which I know cold weather fans are becoming desperate to see but for those that are looking for something drier, less windy and still reasonably mild for the time of year then your wish may be granted in a week or so time with as always in the UK a few caveats.

[bluearmy]

Well the ECM ens seem reasonably supportive of the op this morning. pressure rising over Europe bringing drier weather. There is good support for a wedge of heights drifting towards Scandinavia, unfortunately most seem to want to drive the jet over the top sinking the high into the grips of the ridge over Southern Europe.

I guess though that anything is better than more rain.

I liked it captain - sniffed a bit of a split jet and undercutting. Much better for coldies than expected though need some naefs support before getting too interested. This isn't over by any means and that ens run looks to be trending in corinthian's direction. Edited January 4, 2014 by bluearmy

[Polar Maritime]

I agree Winter79, and how some posters can not see a pattern change towards the end of the month is beyond me. 

[IDO]

Look at the difference from run to run from last night's control at T348:

 

 

We can assume the control has flipped as well.

 

GEM mean at T240: 

 

Better Dutch ens run:  

 

Possibly a pressure build to our east having more ens support and the D10 mean is supportive of the Atlantic more docile than the GFS mean:

 

 GFS: 

 

But things may be changing: http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/451924/Snow-and-arctic-winds-to-plunge-Britain-into-deep-freeze-after-storm-destruction

 

The usual suspects were watching last night's ECM op/control or do they have insight into the Met's signal for later this month?

 

The potential remains for some sort of pattern change based on the ECM mean so more runs needed before I roll with the GFS FI.

 

 

 

[Cloud 10]

I liked it captain - sniffed a bit of a split jet and undercutting. Much better for coldies than expected though need some naefs support before getting too interested. This isn't over by any means and that ens run looks to be trending in corinthian's direction.

 

Any news on the extended ens. BA?

 

 

The day 10 ensemble mean and anomalies look mighty promising.

 

 

 

edit.

 

extended ens.look colder than yesterday's 12z as posted above.

 

http://www.knmi.nl/exp/pluim/vijftiendaagse/Data/15DAAGSE_06260_NWT.png?6767676767

Edited January 4, 2014 by Cloud 10

[Purga]

Back to zonal unsettled across the board this morning with a typical oscillating cool / mild west to east type regime from the GEFS.

 

 

The lone cold outlier p5 is a very brief easterly before it quickly collapses and then back to the usual dross

 

 

very brief then

 

The ECM mean does try with the Scandi HP

 

But it gets swept away

 

 

At least the DeBilt ENS look reasonable so all hope not lost yet

 

it does look like a pattern change is afoot but to exactly what is unsure tbh.

Edited January 4, 2014 by Purga

[shedhead]

I agree Winter79, and how some posters can not see a pattern change towards the end of the month is beyond me. 

Perhaps you could explain how you see the pattern change coming about PM?

[Iceni]

So are the UKMO ignoring the ECM? and going with their in house view. Or have they been infiltrated by an undercover Net Weather operative determined to stop the influx of NW members to the trauma unit after the ECM 32 bombshell last night?

 

Apparently Ian will be sent to a Russian Gulag if he spills the beans! We'll soon have to print those t-shirts with Free Ian!

 

Night all, see you all tomorrow for what could be a pivotal day in the search for some cold and snow.

 

John Le Carre aside, it feels there's a pattern change afoot or should that be regime change?   It's pretty rare to get a whole winter of Atlantic muck, last time that happened was 1988 IIRC - I remember sitting glumly in the car with this winter coat on wondering why I hadn't bought a mac instead.

 

I don't see why it's all a big secret.... doesn't the taxpayer pay to know what the weather men think? They claimed they knew about December 2010, but kept it from the public, or the govt told them to keep it from the public... Why?

Edited January 4, 2014 by Iceni

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Just a quick one, we seem to be honing in on 9-12 as the possible pivotal point where arctic heights try to move down and a 'weak' ridge extends up to slow the Atlantic.  That window was taken yesterday, today not so but it isn't discarded, the window remains, what happens after that period is up for grabs and HAS NOT changed....But before that this storm for Sun / Mon looks a bit beefier to me and more concern ahead.

 

BFTP

Edited January 4, 2014 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[phil nw.]

The 00z ECM op has come more in line with GFS and UKMO this morning keeping this general westerly flow going.

Not quite as stormy later next week with some idea of those heights building over the continent ridging north towards the southern UK. although this may be transient.

The problem is still upstream with the Canadian/W.Greenland vortex that continues to feed the jet coming off the Eastern seaboard into the Atlantic.

The occasional idea of ridging towards Scandinavia by the ECM shows some hope that if and when the vortex warms from it's very cold state then this could develop into something that will halt the Atlantic train at a later time.

At the moment though there's just too much forcing to our nw which overcomes any wedges of heights that try to develop.

[jimben]

The weather being dynamic will I am sure teach us another lesson and any change will be swift and unforeseen. Which, I guess is why we have models .... to try and second guess the weather.

[bluearmy]

the extended ecm ens are full of eastern promise. well maybe not siberian but certainly continental.  bearing in mind that neafs doesnt see it this way, we will have to wait and see if ecm ens have found the way forward. basically the build in heights to our ne is then supported by another shallower rise moving into the iceland area. you can see it at the end of the ens mean run. we end up with a high anomoly centred n scandi, ridging across  across to e iceland. its not a strong anomoly but its enough to deliver a wintry spell IF heights drop to our south. thats the crucial part. if heights dont drop to our south and enable the jet to split, then we probably end up with more of the same. the ecm suite does show heights dropping to our south. naefs does not. the extended ecm ens jet profile actually shows a split jet with the weaker n arm headed ne around the top of the ridge which would feed cold in behind it to be advected back across europe.  its certainly a good trend to have but its a long way from looking out at a white blanket. the control run is not singing from the same hymn sheet btw.

Edited January 4, 2014 by bluearmy

[fergieweather]

An emerging number of MOGREPS members are starting to show much colder solutions by end of the trend period (15d). This hadn't been the case recently.

[weather eater]

I agree Winter79, and how some posters can not see a pattern change towards the end of the month is beyond me. 

I don’t think there is any doubt the models are indicating a pattern change of sorts, I don’t think anyone can dispute that, the question is are the models indicating a pattern change to much colder synoptics of the sort most of us are hoping for and the answer to that at the moment I’m afraid is, no they are not. Now nobody is saying that there is no chance for that to change or that there are no indicators for that kind of change whatsoever, but I really can’t see the point in dressing up what remain a pretty poor outlook for a major pattern change, you can’t conjure it up by being enthusiastic for it to happen. The pattern change that looks the most likely at this point in time is still largely zonal, but less vigorous than of late with some chance of high pressure having a greater influence on our weather than it has been of late, I would say day 7 plus, depending on which model run you have the most faith in, if blocking is to occur then some sort of MLB rather than HLB seems to be the more likely to me at this time.

[winterof79]

Perhaps you could explain how you see the pattern change coming about PM?

The pattern change is that we should be looking at this output medium term

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2014010400/UN144-21.GIF?04-06

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014010400/ECH1-144.GIF?04-12

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014010400/gfsnh-0-144.png?0

 

Which has stopped the barrelling of low pressure system towards us as before

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/archives/gfsnh-2013122800-0-6.png

The black hole of a PV has been removed.And the raging jet should subside.

[wolvesfan]

Morning,

This driving everything for me at the moment,

 

Ensembles nothing to shout about,

 

Day 10 means support a continuation of the status quo,

 

OTHER 8 to 10 DAY 500MB MEAN RECENT RUN (12UTC)

RETURN LINKS E-WALL HOME

 

Data available does suggest a continuation of the zonal pattern.Tropospheric vortex forecast to weaken but is still going to be unfavourable for heights to rise bringing cold to the uk.

[steelermark]

An emerging number of MOGREPS members are starting to show much colder solutions by end of the trend period (15d). This hadn't been the case recently.

There's your answer shedhead. It's pretty obvious the pattern is changing to be fair. It's just we don't know to what pattern yet. Edited January 4, 2014 by steelermark