Model Output Discussion 1st January 2014-06z onwards.

[TSNWK]

Fantastic GFS FI, lack of comments are a bit bewildering. Anyway, after this mornings ens I'm slightly more optimistic now, but let's give it a few days yet. Easterly central though in candy land!

Yes it is a nice gfs from around 240 right out to the end. From my point of view I can't get excited as in the back of my mind is the EC32 , the lack of strac warming, the 500mb charts from John etc all saying no. After being around since bbc snow watch I've learned my lessons about GFS operationals in fi, nice to see though and is the 2nd run with some interest..

[nick sussex]

I see a lot of debate as to whether things are improving from a cold perspective. As everyone knows I'm a hardened coldie, I think it depends on what we use as a comparison, compared to December I think January shows more promise, of course that wouldn't be difficult!

 

However if we're having to use GFS lower resolution output past T240hrs for signs of a change then we're on a sticky wicket!

 

On the plus side we do see the PV less uniform and not so determined to stick over Canada and the jet should ease somewhat as the steep thermal gradient over the ne USA diminishes.

 

In terms of the overall models today, generally they are reluctant to not phase energy or they do so too quickly to give us a chance to add more forcing on the troughing near the UK by way of the ridge to the north.

 

I can't stress enough to newbies how important this aspect of the outputs is because the phase point in a sense determines where the cold air will be, to the north of the phase basically, you need to have a clearance of energy away from the UK without residual left to phase with the PV chunk.

 

If you're going to get some phasing you need as much delay as possible, this would be helped by the more amplified pattern in the mid Atlantic as shown by the GFS 06hrs run, because its more amplified more energy wants to run se rather than just east.

 

Theres still time for more changes, lets see whether tonights outputs can show a bit more interest and less phasing!

[John Badrick]

It depends on which model, what time frame, the preferences of the poster and level of knowledge - you have been through one winter, you'll know by now where the unbiased comments originate.

I know who is unbiased, but what about the new people to the forum who are not aware of the more experienced and less biased

[Purga]

Yes as Polar Maritime posted a cracking set of FI charts from GFS 06z.

 

 

 

Widespread snow showers - pity it's fantasy world. Anyway hopefully a trend which does seem to have followed on from the 00z run so let's be positive.

[R.P. McMurphy]

GFS once again shows why we should be trend setting into FI.

 

Frosty, myself and a few others have been banging on about this for some time now... You can't argue with what a chart shows, no matter what your preferred weather is.

 

 

 

The 12th is also showing some potential:

 

[Polar Maritime]

Yes Glenn, Best run of the winter so far i would say for cold and the trend seems to be growing. Lot's to be positive about this morning and very interesting to see how things develop.

Edited January 3, 2014 by Polar Maritime

[shedhead]

Fantastic GFS FI, lack of comments are a bit bewildering. Anyway, after this mornings ens I'm slightly more optimistic now, but let's give it a few days yet. Easterly central though in candy land!

I think the main reason is far to many of us have been badly bitten by the GFS low res over the years, so given the overall set up for now the odds of FI verifying is low....not completely out the question, but low. 

 

Also lets assume the low res was full of bitter cold from the north and east, but FI swing winds around to a mild SW direction - how many members would accept it as possible, let alone right?  Probably wise to view FI in a consistent way whatever it shows, but once/if those charts start to consistently enter the low res it may be time to get exited. 

Edited January 3, 2014 by shedhead

[R.P. McMurphy]

I know people keep banging on about the same old thing, why we are looking at Low-Res etc... It's quite simple, it's called Trend Setting. When the GFS for the past 3-4 days run after run keeps amplifying something in FI along the same pattern, it's called a trend, and one which should be noted, watched & followed.

 

Albeit it is Low-Res, sure... But that's not to say it cannot pick up on signals, which it clearly is doing, so I dont understand why we should completely ignore it. If Low-Res was showing Atlantic dominated weather all the way to +384, it would be "Set in Stone"....

 

This is the model thread, and all models, no matter how dire they are, or how far they go out, are there for discussion, and members can post what they like when they like with their own interpretation (Unless it's a clear Bias, which is just wrong)...

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

FI signals 1947 to commence! That would be a major whiteout for the East, given how warm SST's are at the moment.

[johnholmes]

GFS once again shows why we should be trend setting into FI.

 

Frosty, myself and a few others have been banging on about this for some time now... You can't argue with what a chart shows, no matter what your preferred weather is.

 

 

 

 

 

 

except that run to run there is not a lot of consistency and you are quoting a chart for the 18th, it is only 3rd. It may turn out right but to quote a definite coldie Nick S this morning, forget anything beyond 240h??

When it gets to 120h and it is showing much the same idea then those wanting cold and snow can really begin to get excited.

How close is the 500mb pattern on the chart you show to the predicted 500mb NOAA 8-14 day, the closest we can get to your time frame? Answer=not very similar at the moment so personally I would suggest much caution with charts like that. I would urge similar caution if it was showing a different pattern say favouring mild for the reasons just given

 

Please don't get me wrong folks, from a selfish viewpoint the scenario shown is ideal for me, my ski holiday in the Swiss Alsps starts 2 days later!

Edited January 3, 2014 by johnholmes

[Duane S.]

Solutions such as what the GFS Op has just proposed are to be expected in the coming days

temper that with some very zonal/mild ones likely to appear as well and we will have a very different January to December model chart output, which was 95% zonal of sorts.

 

It is about timing and ultimately a degree of luck where we are concerned. Sometimes the window for what can go wrong in an impending/potential cold setup is large, such as the lead up to Dec 2010 for example. In this case however , it is a lot smaller and early - Mid January the odds are probably stacked against. That said if we see a continued backing west of the vortex / greater influence from the Arctic high over our side of the pole then we could be in business as early as a tad before Mid-month. Until then we will just have to endure the relentless continuous stream of Atlantic energy being thrown at us for a little while longer...

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

God i hope GFS is onto something!

 

Need snow fix need snow fix need snow fix!

I noticed the 00z GEFS seem quite keen to lower the 850's around the 10th/11th so hopefully this theme will be continued on the 06 GEFS.

Have to say though im not at all keen on the ECM0z or the news that that the EC32 is zonal but we have seen the EC32 flip before so although the probabilty of an Easterly remains low IMO it cannot be discounted.

[shotski]

except that run to run there is not a lot of consistency and you are quoting a chart for the 18th, it is only 3rd. It may turn out right but to quote a definite coldie Nick S this morning, forget anything beyond 240h??

When it gets to 120h and it is showing much the same idea then those wanting cold and snow can really begin to get excited.

How close is the 500mb pattern on the chart you show to the predicted 500mb NOAA 8-14 day, the closest we can get to your time frame? Answer=not very similar at the moment so personally I would suggest much caution with charts like that. I would urge similar caution if it was showing a different pattern say favouring mild for the reasons just given

 

Latest JMA 5oomb charts out today not a million miles away from GFS in FI, sorry cant post link at the moment

[Polar Maritime]

I think we are all fully aware of the cautions out in FI, And if any members weren't im pretty sure they are now 

[forecaster]

The models continue to edge towards consensus upstream in terms of the inland runner low, in a typical model switch the GFS has gone from zero to hero because its output at least shows some potential before the lower resolution. The ECM I'm afraid is crxp over the UK! I can see a way to cold with the GFS, sadly the ECM gets an A for frustration! The GFS is more amplified with the upstream energy and has more dig to the PV, we don't quite have the right angle of WAA towards Svalbard but it could still develop, the ECM has already phased energies and its game over as thats flatter with the PV.

When you talk about phasing and phased energies what exactly do you mean?

[Purga]

I know people keep banging on about the same old thing, why we are looking at Low-Res etc... It's quite simple, it's called Trend Setting. When the GFS for the past 3-4 days run after run keeps amplifying something in FI along the same pattern, it's called a trend, and one which should be noted, watched & followed.

 

Albeit it is Low-Res, sure... But that's not to say it cannot pick up on signals, which it clearly is doing, so I dont understand why we should completely ignore it. If Low-Res was showing Atlantic dominated weather all the way to +384, it would be "Set in Stone"....

 

This is the model thread, and all models, no matter how dire they are, or how far they go out, are there for discussion, and members can post what they like when they like with their own interpretation (Unless it's a clear Bias, which is just wrong)...

Good post Glenn.

 

GFS is also known to trend to Atlantic / zonal domination in the later stages almost by default so when it shows a more amplified pattern on a consistent basis it is worth taking note of.

 

The 06z GEFS are also trending colder - e.g. London

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?ext=1&x=306&y=141&ville=Londres

Edited January 3, 2014 by Purga

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Well for me the cold upgrade continues as 'suggested'.  This Jan will go one of two ways.  Either we will have real cold/wintry weather dig in or we'll be stuck in the preferred MetO SW'ly regime....no room for halfway house imo.  Steady as she goes as far as I am concerned, we have seen a continued 'improved' cold outlook which IMO could still come sooner rather than later in Jan.  And why not look at what 3 days have done?? 

 

BFTP

Edited January 3, 2014 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[Nick L]

CFS Long range model still showing a well below average March and then summer looks to be going down the

plug hole big time, no sign of high pressure over the uk at all and its been showing this for a while .

 

Shotski

 

If the CFS was right we would have been up to our necks in snow since the start of December.

[draztik]

 Frosty, myself and a few others have been banging on about this for some time now... You can't argue with what a chart shows, no matter what your preferred weather is. 

we can all see what the gfs is showing in fi, but we can also see how that model changes run to run. As Nick has already alluded to - if we are using gfs post 240 for our ideals, then you'd need to be a betting man and one ready to lose some money.and to your point about those banging on about cold.. some have been doing that since November. I don't know about you, but im still patiently waiting..?there are some positive signals however appearing.. Looking at the jma ensemble model indicates some form of northern blocking, with low pressure to our south into week 3/4, and as early as week 2, it shows positive heights over Scandi. So, if more models can show this form of setup, then more will take notice. But its too soon to know if we will get anything meaningful.

[Rocheydub]

Confidence in THAT GFS = 10%. Would be nice, and at least it offers candy for the windows to the soul, but that's about it!

[johnholmes]

Latest JMA 5oomb charts out today not a million miles away from GFS in FI, sorry cant post link at the moment

 

Nor are the 500mb anomaly charts totally different, but they are not close enough yet in my view to be able to put a marked pattern change above the 40-45% I have touted for 10-12 days down the line from now just yet. If they do give clear indications rest assured I will post the result in here.

The latest 8-14 link is below

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/500mb.php

look carefully to the north of the UK, the 500mb contours are still shown as being from a south of west direction but the flow nw of that shows an area with little wind flow at 500mb. It also coincides with the dashed red lines showing +ve height anomalies which have been there for several days on all the anomaly charts (well the 3 I regularly use). IF this increases and any suggestion of ridging occurs in that area this MIGHT be the pattern change that is needed to pull cold air into the UK. Too early to be any more definite than the 40% in my view.

[R.P. McMurphy]

except that run to run there is not a lot of consistency and you are quoting a chart for the 18th, it is only 3rd. It may turn out right but to quote a definite coldie Nick S this morning, forget anything beyond 240h??

When it gets to 120h and it is showing much the same idea then those wanting cold and snow can really begin to get excited.

How close is the 500mb pattern on the chart you show to the predicted 500mb NOAA 8-14 day, the closest we can get to your time frame? Answer=not very similar at the moment so personally I would suggest much caution with charts like that. I would urge similar caution if it was showing a different pattern say favouring mild for the reasons just given

 

Please don't get me wrong folks, from a selfish viewpoint the scenario shown is ideal for me, my ski holiday in the Swiss Alsps starts 2 days later!

 

John,

 

500mb isn't that far away either, although the 500mb isn't gospel.

 

Reasoning for looking at charts deep into FI = Nothing in the shorter term pre-11th this month which shows any changes from the current wet & windy weather. Why would I want to post charts of the same thing over and over, which is quite boring?

 

I also believe in looking at charts over +240... Trend spotting, dont really want to keep saying this as getting boring, but that's what it's for, not to be ignored because some members of Net Weather say so?

 

We could be REALLY pedantic and keep this to +12 hours of charts in this thread, because at +24 they have been wrong in the past, so should be stop looking at +12 now and get back up from 500mb?

[johnholmes]

When you talk about phasing and phased energies what exactly do you mean?

 

here here and at least 2 pm's into me this morning with a similar question. It really would help new folk Nick if you were to explain just what you mean when using such terms-please?

[The Northern Ramper]

It's very confusing for newbies reading posts on this thread today...one post lots of potential next post no hope...who are people ment to believe

You will soon learn who to believe and who not, generally the people to believe are the ones who post charts and then go into details explaining why they believe things will pan out, Steve Murr is a good example of this kind of poster.Other posters not to be believed will state something is happening from a chart without explaining why, use over the top statements such as the mighty Vortex for example, but deliberately misread the charts to troll the thread. I won't name these people as you can make your own mind up, but one rhymes with burger.

[JCP]

When you talk about phasing and phased energies what exactly do you mean?

It's this years buzzword - last years was "shortwave" ;-)