Jump to content
Holidays
Local
Radar
Snow?
Sign in to follow this  
phil nw.

Model Output Discussion 1st January 2014-06z onwards.

Recommended Posts

The latest NAO update remains unchanged with it staying around neutral for the first half of this month

 

Posted Image

 

The latest AO update has it flipping between negative and neutral for the first half of this month

 

Posted Image

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

GFS 06z ensembles continue to show rainfall easing during the latter half of next week, looking at the 850's they don't look too far away from average out to the 17th

 

Posted ImagePosted ImagePosted ImagePosted Image

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

It's nice to see an interest in the models even if we are still unsure which way we are going with the weather. I think a lot of people are kind of blinded by the fact that our previous winters have had some form of very cold weather pre christmas or at the least very frosty weather. Savour the fact that the 90's had temps up to 15C during the wettest spells, I haven't seen a 15C with rain for a very long time. To be honest I'm also glad that we are getting all this wind and rain now, rather than starting middway through jan atleast we have a high chance of atleast one bout of snowfall through the next three months ;)

 

The pattern will change just look at all the signs that the experts have been posting!

 

Atleast if it does turn much colder, we've got plenty of wet ground to slide across :D;)

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

in relation to SB's post above, if NOAA took the results of the experiment seriously, then I guess they will be doing something re the data input. (I'm sure I heard this type of anecdote before re the starting data of ECM v gfs). I wonder if sylvan can enlighten us as to when we might see the parallel on meteociel??

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Great to see the chances of a more wintry second half to January are firming up more and more, I really couldn't understand why there were comments yesterday saying there was no sign of cold...anyway very encouraging met office update for coldies, The more wintry tone is not that surprising because the GEFS mean has been looking progressively colder by mid month for a few days now..what a promising start to the new year, we might get our snow fix in a few weeks.Posted Image

Edited by Frosty.
  • Like 6

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

New years eve was model watching doom, all of a sudden we have hope from the scandi high and an upgrade in stratospheric warming. Woohoo!Posted ImagePosted ImagePosted Image

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

 

 I hear will break new ground, with some talk about harnessing the cloud
 
 
 

I hope they can invent a snow making machine for the whole of the uk between dec - march after they harness the cloudsPosted Image

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

What sort of ridge is this!?

Posted Image

A good one ....
  • Like 8

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

A good one ....

 Shame the ECM is on its own with it. The GEM sort of goes for it.

Posted Image

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

A good one ....

Or out another way, a Steve Murr sausage!I have been surprised at how slowly the models have reacted to evident changes not just in the strat but in the troposphere around the pole. However, I ought not to because in my few years' experience of model watching they often seem to be uncertain, contradictory and inconsistent when a change is coming, especially a strat induced one.It seems to me that, judging by the models' behaviour, some kind of change is inevitable. Only minor questions such as when and a change to what remain! It seems highly likely to be colder conditions with a more continental rather than Atlantic flow. However, in our position adjacent to the ocean, it could easily be a 'close but no cigar' situation, or it could be the start of a very significant, even famous, cold spell, or of course somewhere in between.At this range it will be some while before we can discern which scenario is more likely.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

has the ukmo got a problem with its later data ?

Posted ImagePosted Image

 

 

Possibly Posted Image

 

I can't get ECM London ensembles either, if someone else can could you post please.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Possibly Posted Image

 

I can't get ECM London ensembles either, if someone else can could you post please.

no doubt erroneous but there will be no issue with the slp charts - it will be data transfer problem to meteociel.

Typically, the ECM extended ens fail when we want to see them!

also, there really should be no sign of possible events in the strat feeding down into the trop as yet on the extended modelling.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Possibly Posted Image

 

I can't get ECM London ensembles either, if someone else can could you post please.

Posted Image

 

Edit: Sorry not ECM.

Edited by StuieW

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Possibly Posted Image

 

I can't get ECM London ensembles either, if someone else can could you post please.

 

Not updated today yet this is yesterday's

 

Posted Image

 

Best we have for now is this from Holland

 

Posted Image

Edited by Summer Sun
  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

So we got the London GEFS, the De Bilt EC ens, but not the London EC ens as asked for?

;)

Not updated on my usual source.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The ECM graph for London still showing yesterdays date.

A link to another Dutch site is the best i can find at the moment.

http://www.weerplaza.nl/15daagseverwachting/?type=eps_pluim&r=midden

 

click the links above the graphs for ECM/GEFS and comparison data.

A quick glance for over there shows the ECM suggesting  colder temps towards the end of it's run with low dewpoints so possible Easterly influence?

GFS output less cold and dry as expected from the earlier charts so likely continuing westerly effect.

  • Like 5

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

GFS 12z trickling out. Looks as though it is going to continue with the trend of building heights to our NE and also with the depth of trough.

Already looking very different to UKMO at just 84h in those regards!

 

Posted ImagePosted Image

 

With each of three main models handling ridging both East and West differently, which will blink first?

For the moment GFS staring hard.

 

Posted ImagePosted ImagePosted Image

Edited by Mucka
  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Signs of stalling LP as pressure builds over the N East .LP strugging to make westwards progress at 120 Posted ImagePosted Image

Edited by keithlucky
  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The stronger upper Scandi ridge = weaker Atlantic Ridge. So GFS and ECM diametrically opposed. GFS at T150:

 

post-14819-0-24256600-1388593053_thumb.p

 

This stalls the Atlantic for a while, see where it goes from here.

 

 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
Sign in to follow this  

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...