heavy rain Heavy Rain Watch from 30th December 2013 into the New Year

[ZONE 51]

Starting a new thread on the rainfall/precipitation from now and into the new year. This thread is to focus on the precipitation. The storm systems continue to sweep in from the Atlantic in the days ahead with disruption likely and with the continued and increased risk of more floods.

 

Here is the Accumulated ppn charts from 3 models starting with GFS, these are up to Wednesday morning 1 January on New years day.

 

GFS:

EURO4:

NAE:

It is more likely than not that some areas would see the amounts indicated on these models, if I post the written data from the EURO4 model:

 

EURO4 DATA 

 

SW England-Devon and Cornwall, Wales 30mm+

 

South coast of Ireland possibly 30mm

 

N-Wales - 40mm+

 

Southern England 12-15mm possibly a bit more in places

 

parts of Eastern Scotland-Grampian, Edinburgh and the Borders 30mm+

 

Northern England-Cumbria- 40mm - 50mm+

 

West Scotland -Glasgow, Ayrshire and Lanark, 

 

Dumfries&Galloway - 30mm - risk of 40-50mm+

 

Irl of Man - 30-40mm

 

It's looking very wet for many through tomorrow.

 

I have used the 3 models to create a map on where the heaviest rainfalls could occur, inside the yellow zoned area is where heavy rainfall is most likely on Tuesday (tomorrow) within the orange zoned area the highest risk of the heaviest accumulated rainfall up to Wednesday morning with the deeper orange blobs where the largest totals are indicated.

 

Warning map is for Tuesday 31 December:

 

ESS

Edited December 30, 2013 by ElectricSnowStorm

[Bobby]

100mm+ for parts of the West over the next 8 days, 150mm in some places likely.

 

 

From NMM, another 2inches/50mm+ forecast in Wales and parts of SW England over next 48 hours after around 70mm overnight here, sure is a wet spell of weather with more flooding likely.

 

 

A fair amount of flooding locally after last nights rain

 

http://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/wales-news/large-parts-wales-hit-flooding-6451981

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-25544511

 

[Bobby]

Very wet 3 days on the NMM across the south, 50mm in places and up to 70-90mm in parts of Wales. Showing ~85mm for my spot. More flooding probably with the waterlogged ground.

 

Edited December 31, 2013 by Bobby

[Liam J]

The rivers are already taking over fields up here and it continues to look worrying with further wet & stormy weather set to batter the UK. 

Edited December 31, 2013 by Liam J

[Rammie]

Looking at it today, does this rain look less heavy and less prolonged than was thought yesterday?

[ZONE 51]

Looking at it today, does this rain look less heavy and less prolonged than was thought yesterday?

No, still very wet, many busy or taking a break, likely reason lack of chat in the severe weather area today. and no Internet access for myself up to now since yesterday afternoon..

 

Just looked at the FAX charts, surface pressure, the cold front should produce squally rains today especially across the south, I see a trough on there heading into the SW/S this eve, showery flow following into tonight, some active thundery downpours, hail possible ,alot of this heading into the south. So further flood problems to come.

 

 

(stormy winds for some today too, have gale force gusts right now where I am)

Edited January 1, 2014 by ElectricSnowStorm

[ZONE 51]

Further heavy downpours through today and into the night, see my map below indicating the highest risk areas from the heavy rainfall, some may be thundery and some showers could contain hail especially this evening and overnight:

The orange zones cover southern England and Wales, parts of northern England particularly the northwest, and also into Scotland. Map based on 3 models data and latest radar.

 

(note the oranges are lighter on the map than other maps before but these are indicating just as severe as previous maps I have made, but trying to make things more clearer and easier to see the map outline)

Edited January 1, 2014 by ElectricSnowStorm

[ZONE 51]

Take a look at this, just to show the mountains of Scotland and the current rainfall+MOwarnings

 

The shape is interesting (MO warning) 

 

I have drawn a line to show southern edge of the mountains:

 

(temporary post until new update tonight, take a copy of this image if you want to)

Edited January 1, 2014 by ElectricSnowStorm

[ZONE 51]

Further heavy downpours through today and into the night, see my map below indicating the highest risk areas from the heavy rainfall, some may be thundery and some showers could contain hail especially this evening and overnight:

Heavy Rainfall and Flooding - For - Wednesday 1 January 2014 - upto - 0300hrs Thur 2nd - ESS.png

The orange zones cover southern England and Wales, parts of northern England particularly the northwest, and also into Scotland. Map based on 3 models data and latest radar.

 

(note the oranges are lighter on the map than other maps before but these are indicating just as severe as previous maps I have made, but trying to make things more clearer and easier to see the map outline)

The heavy showery conditions with hail and thunder also with further squally winds have really set in over the southern half of the UK, and are set to last for much of the night adding to further flood problems here, heavy rain may continue over Scotland tonight and some heavy showers or rain over other areas too. Thursday daytime looks like a break for a while, but won't be long as the next weather front sweeps in, are post one NAE charts to show this:

 

...

Edited January 1, 2014 by ElectricSnowStorm

[ZONE 51]

There is a band of heavy rain continuing to move from east to west over all areas this evening into the night, quite a lump of rainfall now affecting the SE mod-hvy bursts in there. There is more heavy downpours through Friday, some intense rain. 

 

Are take a look at the data closely later and post up on this later (hopefully!)

[ZONE 51]

Today (Friday) another storm system sweeping in from the Atlantic, quite a concern and it's likely that this big system brings precipitation. Large amounts of rain falling onto extremely saturated ground today has no where to go, nothing can absorb this water anymore. 

The rainfall over parts of Scotland particularly the western side could amount to over 2 inches or 50mm+ I have highlighted this as orange on my rain alert map below. all areas at risk from heavy showers/rain but the areas within the yellow shaded zone are where we are likely to see the amounts of rainfall over 12mm and possibly 25mm (keep watch of forecasts for any snow in north..)

This is rainfall amounts.

 

(Image - removed previous map)

 

The rain especially across the south coming as bands of heavy/intense downpours, perhaps thundery too. The look ahead into the weekend yet more heavy rain, really quite incredible with what has been and what could turn up with the rains and winds over the days ahead, and not only this we have the floods from tidal waters as the deep low pressure+wind+high tides combine to push up big waves around coastlines, there is a thread on this in this section.

 

Note that Gale to Severe Gale force winds developing today over many areas with this storm.

 

**update**

 

Band of very heavy rain moving across southern England now heading into the SE and EA soon, some very heavy bursts from this feature. Updated map, after latest NAE ppn data. Note did not have access to some data earlier as per late update to include areas with dotted lines to show this update.

Edited January 3, 2014 by ElectricSnowStorm

[ZONE 51]

Rather complex weather system moving into southern UK by the morning, just developing into SW England as I type, this rainstorm moving across S-UK and then up to northern areas, the most prolonged and largest rainfall totals as being indicated over southern areas topping up through Saturday (today) the concern of such large rainfall totals here possibly 25mm that's about an inch widespread with more than this over some areas, the data I use is indicating central South and the SE seeing some of the highest totals,

NAE 0000-0600hrs

this shows the heavy rain moving in overnight and by morning really set in,

0300-0900hrs, very much alot of rain shown here..

0900-1500hrs,

Large totals being collected over the western side of Scotland too, as being indicated here, other models really debating position of the largest rainfall totals today, so most places at risk but it's S-UK and W-Scotland on NAE here that is indicating where the biggest deluges today could be.

 

I have done the map and highlighted these areas as orange, the yellow being the risk zone for heavy rain/totals today.

 

Some areas of Wales and NW England have large totals being indicated here, my maps are made

combining model data using overlays, for example a few ppn models rather then a solo are showing quite a lot of rain for parts of the south increasing the chances of the event happening? so I combine the chances/risk of the event taking place this way and so = probability% +risk of flooding due to saturated ground/drainage problems = risk.. I'm working on the maps!

 

 

I also if possible update the maps as radar and other data comes in, it could be that other areas are highlighted orange!

 

I like to put the yellow for 12mm+ accumulated rain/ppn during saturated ground

 

Edited January 4, 2014 by ElectricSnowStorm

[ZONE 51]

Today rain is likely to start intensifying across the west and north, the east side seeing this developing as we go through this evening, particularly the Central Southern and SE. I have done a map, the orange is where I expect the largest rainfall totals between now and Monday morning, before 7am, and for Monday plenty of action too keep watch for-are post about this tonight if I'm on.

Heavy downpours, thunderstorms, although I have put lightning symbols for the west, I expect these storms to move east tonight...also widespread gales developing at times and severe gusts in places.

 

 

(The maps are created using several precipitation models data / other)

Edited January 5, 2014 by ElectricSnowStorm

[ZONE 51]

Hold on better change that year!!! (map image title)

Edited January 5, 2014 by ElectricSnowStorm

[legritter]

Rather complex weather system moving into southern UK by the morning, just developing into SW England as I type, this rainstorm moving across S-UK and then up to northern areas, the most prolonged and largest rainfall totals as being indicated over southern areas topping up through Saturday (today) the concern of such large rainfall totals here possibly 25mm that's about an inch widespread with more than this over some areas, the data I use is indicating central South and the SE seeing some of the highest totals,

NAE 0000-0600hrs

this shows the heavy rain moving in overnight and by morning really set in,

0300-0900hrs, very much alot of rain shown here..

0900-1500hrs,

Large totals being collected over the western side of Scotland too, as being indicated here, other models really debating position of the largest rainfall totals today, so most places at risk but it's S-UK and W-Scotland on NAE here that is indicating where the biggest deluges today could be.

 

I have done the map and highlighted these areas as orange, the yellow being the risk zone for heavy rain/totals today.

 

Some areas of Wales and NW England have large totals being indicated here, my maps are made

combining model data using overlays, for example a few ppn models rather then a solo are showing quite a lot of rain for parts of the south increasing the chances of the event happening? so I combine the chances/risk of the event taking place this way and so = probability% +risk of flooding due to saturated ground/drainage problems = risk.. I'm working on the maps!

 

 

I also if possible update the maps as radar and other data comes in, it could be that other areas are highlighted orange!

 

I like to put the yellow for 12mm+ accumulated rain/ppn during saturated ground

 

Heavy rainfall and surface Flooding - Saturday 4 January 2014 - ESS

thanks for info electric snow storm ,some fun and games starting to show up in s west approaches now ,looks like interesting 24/36 hrs to  come 

[ZONE 51]

New thread for 2014 - 

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/78994-heavy-rainfall-and-flood-watch-january-2014/

Edited January 7, 2014 by ElectricSnowStorm

[ZONE 51]

Could this one be closed Thank you!

[Skullzrulerz]

I thought this was going to be closed?