Severe Atlantic Storms over the Christmas & New Year period

[Bobby]

Looks pretty windy tonight but nothing exceptional, rain looks to be the main issue with the ground already saturated and a lot more to come throughout the week. River levels will stay very high even if they don't flood, then just takes a particulary wet day and major flooding again could be on the cards.

 

Will probably get 40-50mm here tonight in the mountains of Wales, lot of that heading in the Severn.

[Thunder Snow]

Ea have issued flood alerts aready, taken from ea Heavy rain is forecast overnight from Sunday the 29th December to Monday the 30th December with upto 50 millimeters of rain forecast before midday on monday. River levels are already high and will rise over night tonight and during the course of tomorrow morning.

I myself think this is slightly misleading ive been out and about and all 3 rivers are nesr normal in terms of depth, but I supposed it only takes alittle rain

[Cloud 10]

Can't remember that small LP for tomorrow showing up on previous model runs?

 

[Richie V]

South and west Yorks get a brief severe slippering from that if it is correct.

Can't remember that small LP for tomorrow showing up on previous model runs?

 

13123012_2912.gif

[The PIT]

Can't remember that small LP for tomorrow showing up on previous model runs?

 

13123012_2912.gif

Worth keeping an eye on it. These little beggars are difficult to predict.

[Gaz1985]

Ea have issued flood alerts aready, taken from ea Heavy rain is forecast overnight from Sunday the 29th December to Monday the 30th December with upto 50 millimeters of rain forecast before midday on monday. River levels are already high and will rise over night tonight and during the course of tomorrow morning.I myself think this is slightly misleading ive been out and about and all 3 rivers are nesr normal in terms of depth, but I supposed it only takes alittle rain

 

Depends how much rain falls high up where the River Eden is sourced - it can be light rain in Carlisle but chucking it down upstream and this heavy rain water flows down to Carlisle.

Edited December 29, 2013 by Gaz1985

[Thunder Snow]

Worth keeping an eye on it. These little beggars are difficult to predict.

What willthid bring

[NO LONGER POSTING]

 

UKMO picks this little feature up... Would really tighten the Isobars up... 

[Cloud 10]

Amber warning out for South-West Scotland with over 2 inches of rain expected.

 

Met Office: Strathclyde: severe weather warnings

[Thunder Snow]

Whats the talk of a jet sting tomorrow in the model area

[johnholmes]

another term over used-I do wish folk would explain with charts to help others understand terms. Mind you I said it is another over used term and at times by those who perhaps do not understand terms too well.

I will get a link for folk to read up on.

 

a few here that should help

http://www.bing.com/search?q=sting+jet&src=IE-SearchBox&FORM=IE8SRC

 

the Met O one is perhaps as good as any. Once you have read it then have look at the predicted chart for tomorrow and see if you think it might occur.

Edited December 29, 2013 by johnholmes

[Thunder Snow]

I think I understand now john thsnks for the link. So does the sting increases the wind speed, does it have an effect on the intensity of the rsin5

[johnholmes]

as far as I am aware it is the wind feature only

[johnholmes]

Aye, possible SQLN tomorrow with LEWP signatures INVOF the CF, with tornado potential given strong DLS and LLS. DMC, however, is unlikely given poor ELRs. 

 

and yet another post with accronyms scattered about, PLEASE explain them now and then or give links so folk learning can enjoy the fun?

[Cloud 10]

oops,wrong thread!

Edited December 29, 2013 by Cloud 10

[Summer of 76]

and yet another post with accronyms scattered about, PLEASE explain them now and then or give links so folk learning can enjoy the fun?

A few weeks ago when you put your mouse over certain ones it explained what they were, just wondered if this has been switched off or have I done something

 

Edit: Sorry just noticed its there for the ECM so presume that the others above are not in the look up file.

Edited December 29, 2013 by chris mantle

[BurntFishTrousers]

and yet another post with accronyms scattered about, PLEASE explain them now and then or give links so folk learning can enjoy the fun?

SQLN - Squall Line

 

LEWP - line echo wave pattern

 

INVOF - in vicinity of

 

DLS - Deep layer shear

 

LLS - Low level shear

 

DMC - Duff Moisture Code

 

ELRs - Weather sensitive adjustment.

 

What's so difficult to understand?  

[Snow Queen one]

A few weeks ago when you put your mouse over certain ones it explained what they were, just wondered if this has been switched off or have I done something

Can't do that on my tablet. The abbreviations are still abbreviated. Lol if you get what I mean.

[Thunder Snow]

SQLN - Squall Line

 

LEWP - line echo wave pattern

 

INVOF - in vicinity of

 

DLS - Deep layer shear

everything lol

 

LLS - Low level shear

 

DMC - Duff Moisture Code

 

ELRs - Weather sensitive adjustment.

 

What's so difficult to understand?  

[johnholmes]

A few weeks ago when you put your mouse over certain ones it explained what they were, just wondered if this has been switched off or have I done something

 

Edit: Sorry just noticed its there for the ECM so presume that the others above are not in the look up file.

 

it is there chris but only for some-not sure if others cause some kind of technical issue?

 

SQLN - Squall Line

 

LEWP - line echo wave pattern

 

INVOF - in vicinity of

 

DLS - Deep layer shear

 

LLS - Low level shear

 

DMC - Duff Moisture Code

 

ELRs - Weather sensitive adjustment.

 

What's so difficult to understand?  

 

 

thank you for that BFT but for new folk it is total gibberish as my pm post testifies at times. All I ask is that posters provide a link to these terms or now and then explain them, is that asking too much?

[lorenzo]

I agree John, clicked like on the original post after deciphering it.

 

More of these things I think, where a picture sums up the post.

[Mokidugway]

I agree keep it simple, by all means use the technical terms , followed by an explanation of what it means, as most people on here are infusiasts not meteorologists !!!....

[Liam J]

NAE develops a small circulation of damaging winds, probably a low likelihood as I'm sure warnings would have been issued. Interesting - NAE overdoing it or perhaps warnings will be issued overnight? Getting pretty rough again outside. 

 

 

Potential. 

 

Quite a significant storm as it enters the North Sea.

Edited December 29, 2013 by Liam J

[Liam J]

This has really got my attention, if that came off it would be a violent little system with a core of severe gale force winds. 

 

EURO4 also wanting to develop something, this is 12z data as well, the NAE has intensified it on the 18z update. 

 

 

 

 

Looking at the satellite you'd certainly wager on a baroclinic leaf developing on the trough, how much cyclogensis & how rapid it occurs, thats the question!

 

Edited December 29, 2013 by Liam J

[Liam Ellis]

Some very strong gusts here now - gusting up to 73mph in Deiniolen, N W Wales.