Severe Atlantic Storms over the Christmas & New Year period

[tinybill]

think there could  be  big  problems  in  the  uk  with  this  storm as  its  so wet  flooding could  be a  big worry  on sunday/monday

[Sainsbo]

Let's just hope that Monday's storm doesn't coincide with high tide. The sea defenses around Aberyswyth, and many parts of the southwest have been badly damaged by the swell we saw yesterday and overnight, and I doubt the Environment Agency or local councils will have had time to fully fix them by Monday.

[rossco89]

Some of the dams in Dumfries and Galloway were overtopping on Monday morning so I guess they will be again come tomorrow with so much rain again.

[Skullzrulerz]

Is there a storm surge?

[Pressure Drop]

Raining again quite persistently here, no significant wind yet.

[ZONE 51]

Recent satellite image, have set the image here to show the storm over the Atlantic

Gales or severe gales on the way. example of this I zoomed into the wind gusts of the MO site, showing gusts 30-40 widespread-and up to 50mph in places inland across the SE on the 3 days ahead, very windy and very wet at times.

 

 

[Pressure Drop]

Just had a heavy sleet drop here, almost turned into full snow, 10-20mm snowflakes..eek whats coming next?

[laserguy]

Meanwhile, people in South Yorks are advised to be prepared for a continuation of the current tedium, and to be on the look-out for sunny spells which may also present an additional hazard in conjunction with calm winds.

[paul m]

Meanwhile, people in South Yorks are advised to be prepared for a continuation of the current tedium, and to be on the look-out for sunny spells which may also present an additional hazard in conjunction with calm winds.

Really naff up here. Mind you would not wish those nasty seas and storms on anyone 

[The PIT]

Meanwhile, people in South Yorks are advised to be prepared for a continuation of the current tedium, and to be on the look-out for sunny spells which may also present an additional hazard in conjunction with calm winds.

LOL

[wimblettben]

Recent satellite image, have set the image here to show the storm over the Atlantic

Satellite Atlantic - storm system.JPG

Gales or severe gales on the way. example of this I zoomed into the wind gusts of the MO site, showing gusts 30-40 widespread-and up to 50mph in places inland across the SE on the 3 days ahead, very windy and very wet at times.

Are you basing the gales and severe gales on the gusts?

 

Looking inland from what I can see there looks to be only mean winds from moderate to strong inland and gales on coastal areas for tomorrow and Monday.

[Zenarcher]

Sunday and Mondays weather will be affected by the deep low currently out in the Atlantic. At the moment its leaving the jet stream and bombing this is when the low will have its strongest winds out in the Atlantic,

 

 

Over the next 18 hours it will move nearer to the UK but as it does the deepness begins to rise again and its powerful winds ease off,

 

 

 Still it will affect the UK from 8am Sunday and for the rest of the day strong winds will pass over the entire UK and Ireland from the West. Gusts will be 45 to 65mph nothing very severe but strong enough to cause some disruption,

 

 

A heavy band of rain will move in from the West during Sunday afternoon as well leaving heavy downpours for Ireland, SW Scotland, Wales and SW England,

 

 

Monday afternoon the low is now just to the West of the UK and even though its still slowly weakening it will still give off plenty of rain and winds,

 

 

Widespread gusts on Monday afternoon 50 to 65mph,

 

 

This very large low pressure system will cause a very high swell during the early hours of Sunday. It's so high it's off the scale so its expected to reach over 48 feet,

 

 

During Monday afternoon it hits the SW of Ireland the worst and other parts of the UK flooding will likely be a issue,

 

Edited January 4, 2014 by weathermaster

[Dale Hay]

18:15 (GMT)

Starting to show a bit of shape.

[Bluebreezer54]

Really naff up here. Mind you would not wish those nasty seas and storms on anyone 

Fair play to you for saying that.

[joanna1971]

Weathermaster Could you please explain the 48ft swell that's predicted, it sounds like Armageddon to me...do you think it could be worse than the scenes we saw at the coast on Friday ...apologies for my ignorance but I'm just learning..

[Zenarcher]

Weathermaster Could you please explain the 48ft swell that's predicted, it sounds like Armageddon to me...do you think it could be worse than the scenes we saw at the coast on Friday ...apologies for my ignorance but I'm just learning..

 

It's difficult to tell at the moment the tide on Friday was very high, on Monday its expected to be about 0.4 to 0.6 meters lower this time. The 48ft swell is mainly going to be out in the Atlantic and for a short time close to the SW of Ireland but for the S of Ireland and W of Wales and SW England the charts show 20 to 30ft swell slightly higher than on Friday but that day also had heavy rainfall at the moment Monday is looking wet but no heavy downpours are currently on the charts. I would say Monday maybe not as bad as Friday but still may come close to it.

[joanna1971]

It's difficult to tell at the moment the tide on Friday was very high, on Monday its expected to be about 0.4 to 0.6 meters lower this time. The 48ft swell is mainly going to be out in the Atlantic and for a short time close to the SW of Ireland but for the S of Ireland and W of Wales and SW England the charts show 20 to 30ft swell slightly higher than on Friday but that day also had heavy rainfall at the moment Monday is looking wet but no heavy downpours are currently on the charts. I would say Monday maybe not as bad as Friday but still may come close to it.

Thank you for explanation. It's all very exciting stuff, but my heart goes out to all the people who have been affected by the weather and it's might.

[Nights King]

It's difficult to tell at the moment the tide on Friday was very high, on Monday its expected to be about 0.4 to 0.6 meters lower this time. The 48ft swell is mainly going to be out in the Atlantic and for a short time close to the SW of Ireland but for the S of Ireland and W of Wales and SW England the charts show 20 to 30ft swell slightly higher than on Friday but that day also had heavy rainfall at the moment Monday is looking wet but no heavy downpours are currently on the charts. I would say Monday maybe not as bad as Friday but still may come close to it.

 

Do you think it would be enough to threaten what remains of Aberystwyth's sea wall?

[Zenarcher]

Do you think it would be enough to threaten what remains of Aberystwyth's sea wall?

 

It might do the swell doesn't look to hit that area too bad. But gale force winds are predicted for these parts on Monday and flood warnings are currently out as well so at the moment I would say it's under threat.

[Coast]

 

Storm Forecast

Valid: Sun 05 Jan 2014 06:00 to Mon 06 Jan 2014 06:00 UTC

Issued: Sat 04 Jan 2014 17:40

Forecaster: TUSCHY

 

A level 1 was issued for Ireland, Scotland and parts of the UK mainly for severe wind gusts and isolated tornadoes.

 

SYNOPSIS and DISCUSSION

 

A N-S aligned trough over N/C Europe feels the influence of another major vortex over the far N-Atlantic. Constricted from that trough, a pronounced mid-layer vortex evolves over the C-Mediterranean. This feature drifts from the Tyrrhenian Sea to the SE. Attendant surface low over the Gulf of Genoa weakens during the forecast and evolves into a diffuse and broad area of lower surface pressure with numerous more or less pronounced minima over the C-Mediterranean. Expect an active convective period over the C-Mediterranean with heavy rain along the downstream side of that vortex accounting to the main and most widespread risk. Upslope flow along the E-coast of the Adriatic Sea likely results in heavy to excessive rain with amounts in excess of 100 mm/24h. With only modest offshore SBCAPE in the range of 200-500 J/kg and no distinct LLJ expected (despite a 15 m/s LLJ west of Albania), no convectively induced excessive rainfall event is forecast with most of the activity remaining stratiform in nature. No level area was added for that risk.

 

Heavy to excessive rain probably also occurs over C-Italy with westward facing mountain slopes and similar rainfall amounts (up to 100 mm/24h). The same reasoning precludes the issuance of a level 1.

 

Two level 1 areas were issued for NW Italy and the N-Adriatic Sea, due to training thunderstorm activity (until the afternoon hours). Heavy rain and an isolated waterspout event are possible. The risk diminishes with the weakening and eastward sliding surface low.

 

For the complete C-Mediterranean, isolated waterspouts are possible. The environment is not really supportive for a more serious spout risk over the C/S Adriatic Sea with long-lasting WAA and also over the W-Tyrrhenian Sea to Sicily to the S-Ionian Sea with increasing BL winds. Best setup seems to evolve along the W-coast of Italy.

 

For Ireland, parts of the UK and Scotland yet another intense extratropical cyclone approaches from the west. Behind the eastward moving occlusion, a brisk westerly flow regime is forecast. 850 hPa winds increase to 20-30 m/s from W to E. No convection is forecast until noon (Ireland) and 18Z (UK). 

 

This changes during the evening and overnight hours with the arrivial of a colder mid-layer air mass, enhanced BL moisture from a back-bent occlusion and numerous more or less pronounced mid-layer impulses. The strongest impulse likely crosses Ireland between 18-21Z and hits the North Sea between 00-06Z. Deeper updrafts with enhanced downward mixing are likely and as 850 hPa winds increase to aoa 30 m/s, severe to damaging wind gusts are once again forecast. This activity rapidly spreads east over the North Sea. There are some hints that once again convection could line up beneath those vorticity lobes (and attendant surface features), which could result in LEWP-ish structures. Concentrated swaths of severe wind gusts are possible with that kind of convection. Isolated tornadoes remain possible due to very strong BL shear and some LLCAPE (offshore and along westward facing coasts). 

 

Between 00-06Z, isolated thunderstorms are also forecast over the SE North Sea, W-Denmark, the Netherlands and NW Germany. We kept the level 1 area offshore for now due to weakening forcing and warm EL temperatures. Strong to severe wind gusts will be the main hazard.

 

 

 

[Dale Hay]

00:15 (GMT)

^ Still looking nice

06:15 (GMT)

^ Starting to whisp away, like a fart in the wind.

[Liam J]

Met updating warnings including rain for some areas today and wind warnings for Monday, gusts 60-70mph with larger than usual wave heights bringing renewed risk of coastal flooding. 

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=map&map=Warnings&zoom=5&lon=-3.50&lat=55.50&fcTime=1388966400&regionName=nw

 

Edited January 5, 2014 by Liam J

[ZONE 51]

Are you basing the gales and severe gales on the gusts?

 

Looking inland from what I can see there looks to be only mean winds from moderate to strong inland and gales on coastal areas for tomorrow and Monday.

Yes gusts. (although upgraded now)

Edited January 5, 2014 by ElectricSnowStorm

[Mapantz]

Yet again, another case for ignoring the NAE precip charts, I made a long-ish post yesterday comparing the differences with other models but my tab ran out of battery before I hit the post button, couldn't be bothered to type it all out again.

The Euro4 isn't far off the mark, the NAE is way off! Precip charts are obviously only a simple guide but I really do not bother with the NAE, only for looking at the pressures and heights.

 

   

Nice risk of something thundery running along the south later this evening, it would be nice to get a 4th thundershower in 6 days.

Edited January 5, 2014 by Mapantz

[Bobby]

Yet again, another case for ignoring the NAE precip charts, I made a long-ish post yesterday comparing the differences with other models but my tab ran out of battery before I hit the post button, couldn't be bothered to type it all out again.

The Euro4 isn't far off the mark, the NAE is way off! Precip charts are obviously only a simple guide but I really do not bother with the NAE, only for looking at the pressures and heights.

 

viewimage (2).png 14010515_0506.gif 14010515_0506 (1).gif viewimage (3).png

Nice risk of something thundery running along the south later this evening, it would be nice to get a 4th thundershower in 6 days.

 

The front does seem a bit weaker than expected, may intensify later. Although the radar again seems to underdoing the intensity, showing very light drizzle over us though it's raining fairly moderately. Radar often underestimates rain intensity, at least here, not sure why.

NMM looks very wet over next 72 hours, 50mm in places, 75mm+ over higher ground.