Severe Atlantic Storms over the Christmas & New Year period

[Summer Sun]

Power 'unlikely to be restored today'

 

Anyone who is still suffering power cuts is now unlikely to have power restored today, Energy Network Association says

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-25515310

[knocker]

Hopefully Friday is perhaps not looking too bad.

 

 

[cheese]

Hopefully Friday is perhaps not looking too bad.

 

There's a pretty big time difference between those charts - from 48 hrs to 72 hrs.

 

Here's the FAX charts for 60 hrs:

 

Edited December 25, 2013 by cheese

[knocker]

True but Northwood seem to be tracking it more to the NE a tad.

Edited December 25, 2013 by knocker

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

No doubt about it. It definitely looks like we will be seeing severe gales perhaps countrywide. Next few runs will be absolutely critical on where and when the low starts to veer off left from the core of the jet. As soon as possible would mean the best possible outcome for less countrywide damage.

[IanR]

Peter Gibbs on one of the beeb forecasts said this storm will be less intense, the last was just a leaf rustler for many, maybe this one an empty crisp packet mover

[cheese]

Less intense? For the south, maybe, but the one just gone was not even remotely intense here - at all. The one coming looks pretty noteworthy to me. If this storm on Friday is less intense than the one just gone, I will eat my wooly hat that I received as a Christmas present (I'm looking for an excuse to get rid of it!).

[hec1]

Peter Gibbs on one of the beeb forecasts said this storm will be less intense, the last was just a leaf rustler for many, maybe this one an empty crisp packet mover

lol

[Liam J]

It will be less intense for the south, a much different story further north where the winds will actually be stronger than yesterday. 

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=1&ech=48

 

Isobars nearly touching!

 

UKMO

 

GME

Edited December 25, 2013 by Liam J

[rich1974]

So is the last bad Low for a while or are there more after this Thurs/Fridays?

[Cheshire Freeze]

Regardless of what the Metoffice say, 70% of the GEFS ensembles are even more severe/slightly further S than the GFS op run. The UKMO also looks severe. The Metoffice text forecast mention gales....I think there will be more than gales if the NWP consensus comes to fruition.

[The PIT]

Subtle changes which will effect Sheffield. First batch of winds are now programmed to be south easterly. Even more sheltered from that direction so won't get disturbed over night. Second batch still set to hit us but moved slightly further north so any further adjustments in the same manner and it will be another miss for us. After that just blustery conditions on the GFS run.

UKMO shows plenty tightly packed isobars so may effect regions slightly further south as well. ECM ain't out yet.

[Cheshire Freeze]

Subtle changes which will effect Sheffield. First batch of winds are now programmed to be south easterly. Even more sheltered from that direction so won't get disturbed over night. Second batch still set to hit us but moved slightly further north so any further adjustments in the same manner and it will be another miss for us. After that just blustery conditions on the GFS run.

UKMO shows plenty tightly packed isobars so may effect regions slightly further south as well. ECM ain't out yet.

 

The GFS is too far N in relation to its ensemble suite and the UKMO model.

[pip22]

There is still over 120 flood warnings across the UK. Just calculated them from the bbc weather site using my iphone. Only one day ahead before another storm makes landfall. I wonder what is the storm called this time?

Edited December 25, 2013 by pip22

[Cric_lancster]

Aye it looks fairly dodgy going into Friday, found the GFS and the NAE work fairly well short-term (<48 hours) for these sorts of things, will be keeping my eyes peeled to see how this one pans out - I tend to take the ECM for broader patterns past t48 - never really thought it was great for the nuances nearer the time. Looks as though it will fill in as it passes over Scotland, but I'll back it still be packing a fair old punch - Irish sea won't be too friendly on its current track I imagine!

[Cheshire Freeze]

A Major storm on the ECM. Looks like 60, 70 and perhaps 80mph winds to me to a fair few places

 

[Costa Del Fal]

The GFS op consistently is the weakest option for Friday here. The control and most ensembles are some 6-10mb deeper!

[Cheshire Freeze]

The GFS op consistently is the weakest option for Friday here. The control and most ensembles are some 6-10mb deeper!

 

The ECM solution and most of the GEFS ensembles would suggest a storm which would make Monday's look like a breeze for the N Midlands and N England.

[The PIT]

The GFS is too far N in relation to its ensemble suite and the UKMO model.

Too early for the exact path. Generally though it's rare for low pressure systems to tracked further south and the general rule is for a slight northward adjustment. As always there's always exceptions to the rules.

[Mark Bayley]

NMM progs gusts of 50-60mph across our region, nothing too serious for this local 

[Cheshire Freeze]

NMM progs gusts of 50-60mph across our region, nothing too serious for this local 

 

NMM based on GFS so not surprised by that. ECM and UKMO would be stronger. Awaiting EURO4 prognosis.

[The PIT]

NMM progs gusts of 50-60mph across our region, nothing too serious for this local 

Yup a bit of a drop but still interesting.

[Mark Bayley]

The GFS op consistently is the weakest option for Friday here. The control and most ensembles are some 6-10mb deeper!

 

Remember the ensembles are lower resolution, at this stage the best models to follow are the likes of the high resolution NAE, NMM etc.. 

[Costa Del Fal]

Remember the ensembles are lower resolution, at this stage the best models to follow are the likes of the high resolution NAE, NMM etc..

Very true. Certainly the UKMO and ECM provide a more interesting option for here. I still feel GFS will be closer to the mark given the trend to correct northwards. Edited December 25, 2013 by Blizzards

[Cheshire Freeze]

Very true. Certainly the unknown and ECM provide a more interesting option for here. I so feel GFS will be closer to the mark given the trend to correct northwards.

 

ECM and UKMO inside 72 hrs any day for me over GFS. GFS overegged Monday's storm for a swathe of the middle of the country with other models closer to the mark. Can't see things being any different this time, except for it underestimating rather than overestimating the storm strength/track.