South East & East Anglia Regional Weather Discussion 24/12/13

[tinybill]

they  must be getting worried  about this bad  boy

 

Early warnings out for Monday

 

Issued at: 1027 on Sat 28 Dec 2013

Valid from: 0005 on Mon 30 Dec 2013

Valid to: 1000 on Mon 30 Dec 2013

 

South to southwesterly gales and locally severe gales will develop across west Wales and parts of southwest and southern England during the early hours of Monday, easing from the west later on Monday morning. The public should be aware of the risk of disruption to travel, particularly as the gales will be combined by heavy rain (see separate Alert).

 

Chief Forecaster's assessment

 

An active frontal system will move eastwards across the UK during Sunday night and Monday. Very strong south to southwesterly winds will develop, with gusts of 60-70 mph possible within the area of the Alert and a low probability of gusts reaching 80 mph at exposed locations in the Isles of Scilly, west Cornwall and west Wales.

 

Issued at: 1056 on Sat 28 Dec 2013

Valid from: 0005 on Mon 30 Dec 2013

Valid to: 1000 on Mon 30 Dec 2013

 

Further rain, heavy at times, is expected to spread quickly eastwards across southwest England and south Wales on Sunday night and into Monday morning. Rainfall totals are expected to be widely 15 to 30 mm, but as much as 40 to 50 mm over south facing coasts and hills. With ground already saturated over much of this region, the public should be aware of the risk of further local flooding. Gales will accompany this rain - see separate Alert for this.

 

This is an update to the Alert issued on Friday, which has been expanded into south Wales.

 

Chief Forecaster's assessment

 

Another active Atlantic frontal system is expected to swing eastwards across UK on Sunday night and Monday morning. A combination of strong winds and very moist air will give locally significant rainfall accumulations over south facing coasts and upslopes. The wind and rain should clear eastwards later Monday morning.

 

Issued at: 1042 on Sat 28 Dec 2013

Valid from: 0005 on Mon 30 Dec 2013

Valid to: 1200 on Mon 30 Dec 2013

 

Further rain is expected later on Sunday, becoming heavy overnight and on Monday morning. Rainfall accumulations of 20 to 30 mm are expected, with as much as 50-60 mm over high ground. The rain will fall on already saturated ground, so the public should be aware of the risk of localised flooding.

 

Chief Forecaster's assessment

 

An active frontal system will move eastwards across Scotland during Sunday night and Monday morning, bringing a spell of heavy rain to southwestern and central areas. The largest rainfall totals will be over upland areas exposed to the strong south to southwesterly winds.

 

http://www.metoffice...0&regionName=uk

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Looks like a potent little fellow 

[tinybill]

Looks like a potent little fellow 

looking  at another  thread its the  last thing  the  south east needs at the moment

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looking  at another  thread its the  last thing  the  south east needs at the moment

 

Indeed.. Check out Tuesday and Wednesday rain/storm too...

[Sussex Jules]

Anyone got a dinghy for Christmas? It's piddling down again and the sky is very dark.

[tinybill]

Anyone got a dinghy for Christmas? It's piddling down again and the sky is very dark.

just looked at  my rain alarm  their some nasty looking  storms  coming up the English  channel at the  moment

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They won't push too far north Mind..

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[JennyJane1]

all i  say it looking worrying  from  31  dec  to jan 4  th for  some bad  storms to hit  the uk. cant  see  the celebrations going off  in London   reg fireworks  at the moment

really, that bad? this is the most sustained days of storm i've ever seen.what about us in the east?

[Tamara]

A couple more trees came down in the woods behind us early yesterday morning. Annoyingly, we had not long paid to have them thinned out as they are spruce which were planted in the 70s/80s when there was a tax benefit for owning woodland, but nothing had been done with them since, leaving them too tall and too closely spaced. Certainly has cleared the area now. Enough wood to last us into the next decade I think, though we need to wait a couple of years to season the coniferous stuff to stop the chimney gluing up.

Staplecross is such a pretty village and only a short drive away from me up the A21 The woodland will be thoroughly saturated with each new rainfall having nowhere else to percolate to, so larger areas of surface water will accumulate.

 

Lets hope that we are seeing scenes such as portrayed on your avatar instead of the current dreadful weather maybe in the late part of January  The signs are there for changes we want to see...eventually. In

the meantime yet more of this hideous intense zonal jet stream pattern to endure

 

Anyone got a dinghy for Christmas? It's piddling down again and the sky is very dark.

 

Yes, after some pleasant, if shortlived winter sunshine, the showers return once more to ensure that dusk returns all too quickly than it already needs to at this time of year

Edited December 28, 2013 by Tamara תָּמָר

[saint]

Most of the South really needs a break from these storms, the rain is really quite an issue now, more so than the wind.

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Theres always Wednesday..  

[Essex Chelle]

No it's tiny about 8" high and 4" wide and very unobtrusive. About the same size as a large coffee grinder. Unlike a lot of things like the food processor, I use it every day. If you don't have time to fix breakfast, you just mix up something like oats, yoghurt, honey, banana and water in seconds and drink it in the car or on the train to work and I don't feel hungry until the afternoon. And it's miles cheaper and better than one of those diet drink regimes - I've lost 3 stone this year.

Just ordered one, after reading your review I decided to go for it. Out of stock at all my local argos stores so I've ordered direct from the nutribullet website

[UKWeatherman]

Some heavy slow moving showers in the southeast right now, continuing into the evening especially through Kent. Certainly not going to help the flooding situation.

 

Then a most welcome break from the rains tomorrow before it all starts again next week!

 

IMO looks like the south and east will bear the brunt of next weeks wind storms, especially monday morning as the squall-line whips through and then again on wednesday with a potentially dangerous wind storm that needs monitoring.

 

Rainfall looks like being the biggest problem though with more flooding problems in areas that really dont need it.

 

Round 2!!

[Jason T]

The "Atlantic conveyor belt" is in full swing look at some of these bad boys..

 

 

All to be a distant memory soon 5 to 7 more days and the pattern change will commence, Hello Winter.

[Kent Snow]

A nice bright and sunny day. First shower of the day currently moving through. 5C.

[saint]

All to be a distant memory soon 5 to 7 more days and the pattern change will commence, Hello Winter.

 

Winter? What's that? 

[stun12]

Staplecross is such a pretty village and only a short drive away from me up the A21 The woodland will be thoroughly saturated with each new rainfall having nowhere else to percolate to, so larger areas of surface water will accumulate.

 

Lets hope that we are seeing scenes such as portrayed on your avatar instead of the current dreadful weather maybe in the late part of January  The signs are there for changes we want to see...eventually. In

the meantime yet more of this hideous intense zonal jet stream pattern to endure

 

 

Yes, after some pleasant, if shortlived winter sunshine, the showers return once more to ensure that dusk returns all too quickly than it already needs to at this time of year

 

We're well above SL so only have the wind to contend with, luckily, though the clay we're on is fully saturated. Bodiam flooded again, as usual. when the Rother expanded onto the flood plains. I think we get some of the aeroplane wind dynamics (Bernoulli? I while since I did physics) when SSW winds catch us as we're just downhill from the main part of the village. 

 

If you're still in the Firehills, that must be pretty exposed to the coastal winds with the added impetus of some height. No flooding, presumably, but some hefty breezes and electrical activity. 

 

We need a very south-east version of MK's get-togethers....quite a trip to anywhere north of Watford!. A Kent and Sussex version would be lovely

[Tamara]

We're well above SL so only have the wind to contend with, luckily, though the clay we're on is fully saturated. Bodiam flooded again, as usual. when the Rother expanded onto the flood plains. I think we get some of the aeroplane wind dynamics (Bernoulli? I while since I did physics) when SSW winds catch us as we're just downhill from the main part of the village. 

 

If you're still in the Firehills, that must be pretty exposed to the coastal winds with the added impetus of some height. No flooding, presumably, but some hefty breezes and electrical activity. 

 

We need a very south-east version of MK's get-togethers....quite a trip to anywhere north of Watford!. A Kent and Sussex version would be lovely

The area I live in, close to the Hastings Countrypark has enough 'altitude' to prevent flooding for sure - but yes, nights like Monday into Christmas Eve certainly pack quite a hefy breeze!!  Yes I can well imagine Bodiam flooding again - very prone round there.

 

A south east corner get together sounds a wonderful idea!! We are all one region, north and south of the Thames, but having separate and accessible meet-ups does not split us, it merely conveniences us

[JennyJane1]

 

IMO looks like the south and east will bear the brunt of next weeks wind storms, especially monday morning as the squall-line whips through and then again on wednesday with a potentially dangerous wind storm that needs monitoring.

 

ok, something to look out for.

 

does this stormy weather cause blizzards when it starts snowing, or in general does the stormy weather leave once it turns colder?What i mean is, can the two weather systems co-exist?

[Reefseeker]

Greetings from what is currently thundery, rainy and earthquakey (6.3 richter in the sea a couple of hours ago when we were driving and didn't notice) Cyprus. Our house half way between Limassol and top of Troodos stuck around 10 degrees and cloudy today with some very dramatic cloudscapes and gusts when we went walking across the mountain; down in Limassol it was 15 degrees.

 

Reading Electric's post about Cobham with some concern, not realising how bad the flooding was yesterday, and the rest of your post's regarding the next week of storms in the south east with similar concern; I think we could all do with a break from preparing constantly for wind and rain, and deciding whether or not to leave the fences down in case they just get flattened in the next round.

 

Waiting in Limassol for my son's suitcase to be delivered - in a masterstroke, the baggage loading at Heathrow yesterday somehow managed to miss a whole container of luggage which didn't make it onto the plane, leaving 85 items behind. Bless BA, they are delivering by taxi everyone's lost luggage, but phoned us to say due to the sheer quantity it may be close to midnight until they make it here.

 

A couple of pics from this afternoon's rather blustery walk:

 

 

Edited December 28, 2013 by Reefseeker

[JennyJane1]

Greetings from what is currently thundery, rainy and earthquakey (6.3 richter in the sea a couple of hours ago when we were driving and didn't notice) Cyprus.

 

Another thing i am very interested in as well as the weather is earthquakes.Did you hear there was a 5.3 at Canary Islands? This is interesting as it is meant to go into the sea and cause a tidal wave if it becomes detached.

[Keraunic]

How is Lincolnshire looking. My family travelling there tomorrow and coming back around late afternoon Monday. I'd like to let them know if they should be wary about wind/rain. Unfortunately, I haven't a clue when looking at charts.

[Reefseeker]

Another thing i am very interested in as well as the weather is earthquakes.Did you hear there was a 5.3 at Canary Islands? This is interesting as it is meant to go into the sea and cause a tidal wave if it becomes detached.

 

Hmmm that is interesting. In Cyprus they are used to earthquakes, and my mother-in-law, sitting in the lounge at the time drinking tea, knew what it was as her cup shook in her hand, but thought nothing of it until they mentioned it on the news. I understand it happened at sea between Cyprus and Turkey hence it felt quite mild 'on the ground' but I hadn't thought how this might affect the sea.

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

How is Lincolnshire looking. My family travelling there tomorrow and coming back around late afternoon Monday. I'd like to let them know if they should be wary about wind/rain. Unfortunately, I haven't a clue when looking at charts.

Very flat as usual .Nah it should be ok I think, S and SE looking like worst areas to be IMO.