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Scotland - Regional Discussion - 23/12/13 >>>


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ECM 12z has taken a step towards what I am looking for and with the other models taking steps in this direction as well it looks like we may be going down this path.

 

first step we see in the ECM chart below with energy beings transferred under the heights to our north and the heights staying steady and hopefully this will stay through future runs and also the UKMO hinted towards this earlier as well.

 

post-18233-0-52103800-1389038868_thumb.g

 

GEFS also trying to come join the party with quite a few Greenland height rises thrown in and also the mean 240hr shows no real low heights to our north with some ridging then next to it we see the spread chart for 240hr and it shows there is quite good agreement in this area.

 

post-18233-0-13047800-1389038874_thumb.ppost-18233-0-86741700-1389038882_thumb.p

 

hopefully a trend we see continue as when it comes to cold Greenland is the preferred position as Scandinavia can be a hard block to get in place right to benefit us and to keep there without it sinking etc.

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BUS, I hope you're right!

I was out earlier picking the eldest son up from football training. Lovely clear night with the moon and plenty of stars on show, start of Jan, 4hrs or so since sunset, what would you expect the temperature to be? Below zero with a frost already? Above zero, but only by a degree or two and dropping? Oh no, we have 8.5C, which is quite ridiculous really!

Wind picking up again but only 0.5mm of rain today so far.

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so do I RAVELIN cos like I said scandi highs are just so easy sunk or absorbed into the Russian high or sat to far east to benefit us where as Greenland highs or heights to our north are better for seeing the cold.

 

don't get me wrong if a scandi high set up right I wouldn't kick it out the bed for farting but just personally prefer Greenland.

 

ECM 500 anomalies charts stay solid with heights to our north and out west.

 

post-18233-0-34645100-1389042809_thumb.gpost-18233-0-65868500-1389042814_thumb.gpost-18233-0-64161900-1389042815_thumb.gpost-18233-0-95406200-1389042811_thumb.gpost-18233-0-47880000-1389042825_thumb.g

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plus on a bit of a naughty side I would like to see the heights stay to our north with the set up and have the finger of cold uppers seen here at 192hr on the ECM 12z pushing in above where the line is.

 

post-18233-0-07089300-1389043307_thumb.g

 

then maybe we can get something like this

 

post-18233-0-72507100-1389043318.gif

 

then we can pop our heads up at the border having a good giggle saying wheres your snow Posted Image

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cheers guys I just really enjoy the hunt and the chase.

 

little information to how the CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTRE see the pattern playing out and they favour the ECM 0z ensemble mean due to its skill on the anomalies over the past 60 days

 

6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JAN 12 - 16 2014TODAY'S ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECASTS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE EXPECTED 500-HPA HEIGHT PATTERN FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD OVER NORTH AMERICA. ENSEMBLE MEANS FROM THE ECMWF, GEFS, AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLES PREDICT RIDGES OVER THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC AND THE NORTH ATLANTIC, AND A DOWNSTREAM TROUGH COVERING MUCH OF THE EAST-CENTRAL CONUS. THE ENSEMBLE SPAGHETTI DIAGRAMS INDICATE LOW TO MODERATE SPREAD ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST DOMAIN. MORE WEIGHTING WAS GIVEN TO THE 00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN BASED ON ITS SKILL DURING THE PAST 60 DAYS ASSESSED BY 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALY CORRELATIONS.  

 

8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JAN 14 - 20 2014 THE ENSEMBLE MEAN PREDICTIONS OF THE 500-HPA HEIGHTS FOR THE WEEK-2 PERIOD ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OVER NORTH AMERICA. THE PREDICTED 500-HPA HEIGHT PATTERN FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS QUITE CLOSE TO THE 6-10 DAY MEAN. RIDGES ARE FORECAST JUST ALONG THE WEST COAST AND OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC WITH A DOWNSTREAM TROUGH OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL CONUS. MORE WEIGHTING WAS GIVEN TO THE 00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN BASED ON ITS SKILL DURING THE PAST 60 DAYS ASSESSED BY ANOMALY CORRELATIONS.  

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It's a dry, blustery start to the day here with broken low clouds moving rather rapidly across the sky. The temperature had finally dropped below 8C before I left the house this morning, but only just. Even if we don't get snow, at least the temperatures after tomorrow are forecast start to drop to something a bit more 'normal' for the time of year.

 

Looking at the data for Dyce, it's striking that for the last 6 days the wind has been predominately from a southerly direction. In fact there's rarely been a period where it didn't include at least some southerly element. I suspect if I could see the data for further back that it wouldn't be too dissimilar for the end of Dec.

 

Oh, and as for reports on the BBC Website of the US cold snap, is it just me that gets annoyed at the insistence of quoting every single one of the low temperatures 'including windchill'? Sorry, but I'd rather know the actually air temperatures, with windchill as an optional extra. Getting almost 'Express'-like in their reporting.

Edited by Ravelin
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All is ok people The "Polar Express" has rolled out another gem of a story. We shall all be blanketed by snow ans ice next week Posted Image and all shall rejoice at the winter wonderland..........Oh hang on its all rubbish as usual and Mr P from Vantage weather has got his name in the papers again.Posted Image

 

Worth a read if you need a laugh on day 2 back at work! Posted Image

 

http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/452414/After-the-great-flood-comes-the-big-chill-with-sub-zero-temperatures-from-the-US

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When I see the thread is still on page 48 I know the chase remains outwith the reliable....although if everybody did that does that mean no one would be looking at the models and we could all get hit with a big surprise :)

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Morning, just bounced into Gatwick, and the flooding is really bad, water everywhere you look, see fields where horses have a square foot in several acres of what is now a lake.

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What weather we have all been experiencing, i sincerely hope this is not a taste of any possible "global warming".

 

I have been encouraged this morning by some Sunshine and i have been out doing some garden tidying again and getting the washing out and the chickens all clean and tidy (yes one of them has had a bath too!) Coop and chickens lol.

 

So onto the models, Welllll hang in there folks we're still sitting waiting and wondering if once just once things may develop for some cold. ( i have bought my DH a frost shield for his windscreen in the hope that it breaks the non winter curse)Posted Image

 

Edit: how do i get rid of the warning posts thingy??

Edited by snowy owl
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not really much clearer this morning only saving point in the UKMO 144hr that has came along a little to the ECM 12z yesterday even though the 0Z today was a little worse and also looks better aligned over the USA for the second ridge

 

post-18233-0-02698300-1389097594_thumb.g

 

BLACK ARROWS = ridging

 

RED ARROW = undercutting low

 

PURPLE ARROW = lows looking better to get  some WAA lined up further along

 

also heres a cracking pic showing a big bank of cloud rolling through texas yesterday as the cold polar front moved through

 

post-18233-0-02220000-1389097719_thumb.j

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Here's the big question. Are we going to get a winter this year. This mild mush is wearing thin. Meto seems to suggest less windy but no snow prospects. Sorry for being gloomy but the pattern is not so good for us. There is a suggestion the pattern might not really break until March by some forecasters.

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Here's the big question. Are we going to get a winter this year. This mild mush is wearing thin. Meto seems to suggest less windy but no snow prospects. Sorry for being gloomy but the pattern is not so good for us. There is a suggestion the pattern might not really break until March by some forecasters.

 

 

as it stands not 100% certain but with the anomalies charts showing what they are the hints from the models with concerns to where blocking is to be placed either scandi or Greenland or a mix of both with the main to our north and talk of the pattern change which we are starting to see just now then we are in with a good chance but as always with the weather you never know it could all fall apart in an instance like last winter when we looked nailed on for December and it all went away.

 

so basically a good chance with the pattern but as always close model watching needed.

 

what forecasters are saying that because the pattern is changing already as seen on this current 500hpa animation you can see the heights building to our north so the pattern is already on the move.

 

post-18233-0-74998500-1389103322_thumb.g

 

 

Edited by Buriedundersnow
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New thread coming!


Please finish off any posts or hold off posting charts etc and I'll link new one shortly....

 

 ....and here it is ....

 

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/79002-scotland-regional-weather-discussion-070114/

 

locking this one now Posted Image

Edited by MKsnowangel
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