scotland Scotland - Regional Discussion - 23/12/13 >>>

[Blizzardo]

From radar pictures it looks as though rain moving up from the South is arriving earlier than forecast by maybe a couple of hours so could be up to Glasgow before lunchtime. Currently cool, still and cloudy here 3.1c/2.2c.

[mardatha]

Very very still and cauld here, kitchen window thermometer says 2 degrees.

[Cheggers]

Very calm here, which is worrying. 

[Poots]

Very very still and cauld here, kitchen window thermometer says 2 degrees.

 

Exactly the same here.....

[LomondSnowstorm]

DPs look a bit too high initially across the board for snow from the approaching band but perhaps in the eastern borders they'll be pushed down once the precipitation hits. Charterhall's sitting at 2.3/0.8C so getting pretty close to snow levels. With a bit of intensity and the current 'stillness' we might just be able to drag surface temperatures down enough for snow for inland areas with even fairly modest elevation.

Also, this:

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/78936-model-output-discussion-1st-january-2014-06z-onwards/?p=2884354

Edited January 4, 2014 by LomondSnowstorm

[Hawesy]

Morning all, overcast here in NE Fife, light winds, 4.6c.

[rob4al]

I see that the Coatbridge snow shield has started up now that there is talk of the white stuff! Looking at the radar the big blob looks to be breaking up :-(

[Blizzardo]

DPs look a bit too high initially across the board for snow from the approaching band but perhaps in the eastern borders they'll be pushed down once the precipitation hits. Charterhall's sitting at 2.3/0.8C so getting pretty close to snow levels. With a bit of intensity and the current 'stillness' we might just be able to drag surface temperatures down enough for snow for inland areas with even fairly modest elevation.

Also, this:

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/78936-model-output-discussion-1st-january-2014-06z-onwards/?p=2884354

It does look the wrong side of marginal for any widespread snow. I've had a steady fall in temperature during the morning but if the rain does actually reach me the best I'm expecting is some sleet or wet snow - which going on the winter so far would actually be great to see. 2.8c/2.0c.

[mardatha]

Arghh, temp went up and its raining. SO not happy!

[Scottish-Irish Skier]

Arghh, temp went up and its raining. SO not happy!

 

Aye, same here.

[Hiya]

Aye, same here.

 

-3/-4 C uppers on a slack sww flow wasn't exactly screaming snow in the first place though was it?

[LomondSnowstorm]

-3/-4 C uppers on a slack sww flow wasn't exactly screaming snow in the first place though was it?

 

I think the key was the word 'slack' - if we'd had even a modicum of surface cold ahead of the front it could easily have been a very snowy setup. As it is we were reliant on latent cooling from heavy precipitation to drag the freezing level down and that's a pretty difficult ask, especially since the front appears to have been a bit weaker than initially modelled and also because it's the middle of the day after a not all that cold night.

[Hawesy]

The lack of air frosts remains a notable story in (meteorological) winter 2013/14 so far. I make it the following days with an air frost for selected locations (figures from Weatheronline, commencing 01/12/13):

 

Aberdeen 2

Aviemore 7

Lerwick 2

Leuchars 1

Strathallan 4

Edinburgh Airport 2

Edinburgh Gogarbank 0

Glasgow Airport 1

Glasgow Bishopton 0

Prestwick 0

Eskdalemuir 6

Edited January 4, 2014 by Hawesy

[howham]

4.6C and cloudy but bright and calm.

[Blizzardo]

Rain turning to sleet just north of Glasgow.

[Ravelin]

Temperature of 5.7/2.1C here this morning with a cover of high cloud and just the occasional sight of the sun. Only a light breeze but despite that it felt rather chilly earlier when I forced myself out for my first run of the year. At least its dry though, no rain so far today according to the rain gauge.

[Buriedundersnow]

well the ECM this morning has started to fall back in to line with the UKMO and GFS which i was hoping it would do as it just didn't look quite right last night and although its not quite back yet I think it will come back to the other models as it had a similar thing going on while it tried to sort out the first ridge in Alaska then it fell back in line as late as 72hr and maybe its doing the same here but still cant discount the outcome just yet and that's why I am not looking past 144hr on the 0z runs so not much of a post just the charts for comparison on the 0z.

 

heres the 3 models all at 144hr GFS, UKMO and ECM

 

 

now the 850 temp charts and you can see the cold uppers coming from the west which is what I think the met office were alluding to and is our first chances for snow with this pattern

 

 

now here is the ECM 168hr where this differs from the GFS at 168hr and we will have to wait and see what the UKMO does but I feel the ECM will be wrong and will probably fall back into line with the pattern

 

 

again more time and runs needed to see if the ECM does fall back into line like I feel it will

[Norrance]

Dull and damp but virtually still for a change. 4.5C.

[Buriedundersnow]

ECM mean 500 anomalies charts looking better this morning

 

[BurntFishTrousers]

Think a wee trip to Grangemouth is on the cards http://floodline.sepa.org.uk/floodupdates/info/group-id/8133

[Buriedundersnow]

for anyone looking at the day 10 chart below and thinking that's a pretty weak ridge pushing toward Greenland on the anomalies charts.

 

 

well our ridge we are seeing just now that you can see on the anomalies charts below look how much stronger the ridge is than the Greenland one at the end well when our recent ridge was first showing it was only a weak affair like the Greenland one showing

 

 

I am showing this to show that there is possibility moving forward we could see this ridge strengthen but also have to note we could see it go the other way and disappear we will just have to watch over the coming days to see how we get on with this

[Ravelin]

Dull and damp but virtually still for a change. 4.5C.

Just back from a wander with the dog and the above sums it up here too. A very grey, damp feeling afternoon but virtually windless. Temperature has now dropped to 4.0/2.3C. I hope things change for the colder and/or drier as although we've had nowhere near the amount of rain others have seen (love that rain shadow effect at times), the paths around the woods are rather squelchy and clingy.

[Polar Gael]

in Crieff: trying to be a bit sleety here but mostly cold rain. Thin covering of wet snow on the lower hills beyond the town to the north, but the snowline is pretty close to the summits. 

 

Temp/DP holding steady around 3.0ºC/3ºC.

 

So, dark, cold & wet sums it up again.

 

On the upside, it's no' windy! Yet. 

Edited January 4, 2014 by Polar Gael

[Cheggers]

Think a wee trip to Grangemouth is on the cards http://floodline.sepa.org.uk/floodupdates/info/group-id/8133

Webcam a wee bit further North on the Forth towards Stirling, water really flowing.

http://www.farsondigitalwatercams.com/live-webcams/scotland/Forth/Stirling/

 

And at Dalgety Bay.

http://dbsc.viewnetcam.com/CgiStart?page=Single&Language=0

Edited January 4, 2014 by Cheggers

[sn0wman]

Forth is flooding now in Alloa, still a good 40-45 minutes until high tide too. The water has submerged parts of the old docks, something not seen in many, many years! 

Edited January 4, 2014 by sn0wman