scotland Scotland - Regional Discussion - 23/12/13 >>>

[Buriedundersnow]

 It seems from what I've read here that there is some potential and hopefully that will become more than just potential. Are we actually getting any closer though, or is the potential constantly 2 weeks away? 

 

 

yes certainly still some potential and the met office today have talked about an increasing risk of something colder coming I think the pattern is playing out nicely but we still have to wait and see as usual with the models.

 

the pattern has been pushed back slightly but we have to take into consideration just how strong the jet has been recently and the models have been struggling to get a handle on how long its taking to get rid of all that energy.

 

doesn't look like the GFS 12z wants to come on board yet but it was really bad close in with the northerly earlier as well and was playing catch up at this sort of range.

 

still a case of watching closely.

[SW Saltire]

An amazing day today on the solway coast. Luckily my Grandparents house was built with an extra 3 feet of height so the water didn't get in today but others were not so lucky unfortunately. The greatest waves in their 26 year residence at the coast. The waves were at LEAST 20ft plus. Some managed to clear the 12 ft banking and the whole house. Fascinating and yet rather sad for all those affected. Mother Nature at her extravagant best

Edited January 3, 2014 by SW Saltire

[Polarlow]

Dundee`s Riverside Drive which passes the Airport, is closed due to Flooding !

 

Not as severe as earlier, Now Open again !!!!!

Edited January 3, 2014 by Polarlow

[Buriedundersnow]

saw posted on twitter that's some awesome temp anomalies they are going to see in the USA.

 

http://models.weatherbell.com/news/gfs_2014010312_t2m_anomf_noram.gif

[Northernlights]

Like Lomond Snowstorm have been  laid low with the local virus, all this crowded room socialising at New Year!!!!!!!

 

 Speaking to a local vet this pm who said he always picks up a cold on the crowded plane flying down to see his inlaws in Southern England at Christmas

 

 Some ferocious southerly gusts this afternoon but very sunny currently still breezy and 4.9c

[DR(S)NO]

Picked this up from the MOD....perhaps a change is on the way......

#571 fergieweather

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Posted 32 minutes ago

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Polar Maritime, on 03 Jan 2014 - 12:38, said:

METO are still on board, in line with the trends we are seeing.

18 Jan 2014 to Saturday 1 Feb 2014:

"Some signals are also emerging for an increasing risk that the weather may undergo a change to colder weather types later this month."

This prognosis into late Jan-early Feb is based on some emerging signals from UKMO modelling (i.e. contra EC32). I might be able to offer more on this for you all over next few days.

Edited by fergieweather, 31 minutes ago.

Great Plum, snowking, Tim Bland and 21 others like this Like This

--------------------------

Ian K. Fergusson FRMetS

Twitter: @fergieweather

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[BurntFishTrousers]

What's all the fuss aboot? Only a bit of rain

[Scottish-Irish Skier]

[BurntFishTrousers]

SNAW!!! ^^

[Hairy Celt]

Wet and breezy day in some Speyside woods today with tall conifers swaying like demented party-goers, ie not obviously in time with the music or anything else!  The day turned out better than expected really - could probably have done with earplugs occasionally.  The only sign of wintry ppn was at Slochd - just over 400m - on the way home. All lying snow I saw was disappearing quickly in the wind and rain.

[lorenzo]

Joining the injury list with the plague, very envious of the NE USA synoptics, mind blowing cold.. Hopefully some SNAW tomorrow !

 

Accumulation totals from the wonky Euro4.

 

 

[LomondSnowstorm]

Having looked at today's modelling, it's clear to me that a change is a coming to the NH pattern. Whether we'll get a proper cold spell out of it or not is hard to say (my bet would be yes but not quite yet, and we'll have a few near misses or perhaps even 24/48 hour hits before we get to that stage)
Key trends across the board are:

increased heights across the Arctic

Increased amplification upstream (i.e. slower progression of US storms off the eastern seaboard)

Increasing signs of cold pooling starting to emerge across Western Russia and into Scandinavia

Decreased jet strength and signs of an Atlantic which is finally running out of steam

Easterlies emerging to the northeast with some models giving a full on cross polar flow

 

All of these are positive signals for European cold, and so tonight's ECM op should come as no surprise:

The 00Z NAEFS remains a bit of a headache by highlighting perhaps the only things stopping a deep cold spell at the moment - a Euro high:

Without these relenting, we won't see a deep cold spell, although Scotland could easily benefit from a fairly snowy battleground setup either from the east or the west as troughing slows west of the meridian and disrupts over us (see the GFS 6Z):

The models continue to slow the upstream low down (we saw this occur last January as well) increasing the window for the initial amplification in the Atlantic which leads to the ECM easterly. I'll compare tonight's ECM +72 to the GFS +120 (it's annotated but probably not all that legibly):

First, the GFS +120 from New Year's Day, which is a bit of a no hoper for cold up to D10:

The problems with is are as follows:

too far east with the US low

positively tilted

already phasing with the low in the Atlantic

For all of these reasons, this run, in spite of decent overall NH trends such as the Arctic high and even a cross polar flow, gave a basically zonal pattern:

Still promising for the bigger picture, but not so much for us in the short term.

Now, tonight's ECM at +72:

A very promising pattern, with a split flow evident and the low negatively tilted.

In summary, there's a lot of interesting output in the models at the moment, and although it isn't yet overwhelmingly cold, the building blocks for at least a transient easterly and a generally below average outlook temperature-wise are in place.

 

[skyeblue]

You know what I canny get my head round .People keep building homes next to rivers & burns ..Will they ever learn .rant over

[Buriedundersnow]

for what I have been looking into the ECM looks a little off to me and is pushing the ridge too far east again. It could be right we will find out tomorrow but I just wanted to show this.

 

below I have yesterdays ECM 12z then this mornings ECM 0z then I have todays UKMO 12z then finally todays ECM 12z all at 144hr and I know that sounds a little weird but its for purposes of showing something.

 

go from the first chart to the last now if you look at the evolution of the ECM yesterday and this morning they look to progress along quite well with the ridge then once you move on to todays UKMO 12z it looks a fairly good match with the progression as well with concerns to the ridge then finally todays ECM 12z and the ridge and vortex have been shunted a bit east which then throws out the rest of the run with how it had been progressing which the UKMO is on board with today.

 

 

now tomorrow will tell if this is a mistake in the run and will be corrected or is something that is new and the UKMO will fall in line with the ECM

 

as always more runs needed and only time will tell

[Buriedundersnow]

ECM mean anomalies chart at 240hr looks promising for us

 

[BurntFishTrousers]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-25595091

 

How prepared is UK for storms???

 

I think you'll find Scotland (currently part of the UK) is very prepared. Of course, we're all lumped together as "Uk storm" when in essence Scotland has seen a normal wet day with some high tides dotted around..

Edited January 3, 2014 by BurntFishTrousers

[Big Innes Madori]

It looks like some oan the MT are daring tae get a wee bit optimistic tonight  

However! the usual culprits are pouncing in an instant tae trash any such hope 

What I have noticed while looking through the MT the past couple of days, is that Broony husnae been postin much but his name appears in the likes whenivur Shed Heid posts his anti cauld take   oan any positivity by the cauldies    

 

Is Shed Heid Broonie's alter ego? Is Broonie really Bill Farkin fae the auld Beeb forum?? Will this current on-going Wind & Pi5h ivur stoap???

 

Tune in tae the MT

You know ye want tae 

 

 

 

Big Innes

Edited January 3, 2014 by Big Innes Madori

[BurntFishTrousers]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-25598846

 

I don't get this.

 

Local authorities and the environment agency Sepa have warned of a possible large storm surge on the Forth on Saturday afternoon.

 

Just the Forth? How? The west got hit with tidal surge not east, surely it ain't travelling round?

 

Magic seaweed suggest otherwise: http://magicseaweed.com/UK-Ireland-Surf-Chart/1/#?chartType=PERPW&_suid=138878847275906708045895211399

[aggy]

Prestwick

[chemikal]

You know what I canny get my head round .People keep building homes next to rivers & burns ..Will they ever learn .rant over

 

I agree and disagree at the same time. The majority of people buy a house that a construction company has built. It is almost like you get a pre approved seal of approval when buying a brand new spanking house from a construction company. This is obviously not the case and indeed I think some houses down south were flooded before their owners had even moved in. The majority of the public won't even think to consult a flood risk map before they buy a property.

 

I think a lot of the posters on this forum will look at multiple reasons for buying a property such as flood risk, height above sea level, north/south facing gardens etc etc.

 

Perhaps the planning authorities across the country need to deny planning permission for building homes in vulnerable areas at flood risk and that will put an limit/end to the miserable pictures we have seen all too frequently in the recent past.

[Polarlow]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-25598846

 

I don't get this.

 

Just the Forth? How? The west got hit with tidal surge not east, surely it ain't travelling round?

 

Magic seaweed suggest otherwise: http://magicseaweed.com/UK-Ireland-Surf-Chart/1/#?chartType=PERPW&_suid=138878847275906708045895211399

The River Tay surged and  came over the wall at Dundee in todays high tide at 4:00pm today !

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xeg5ixnLjnI

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X40TnpmRCas

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LX_-oyRQwEU

Edited January 4, 2014 by Polarlow

[Buriedundersnow]

the updated NCEP 500mb anomaly charts have a little improvement to them tonight.

 

the 6-10 day chart still just shows the transfer of lows under the heights to our north

 

 

the 8-14 day chart shows a little improvement with the heights to our north extending a little south west into Greenland towards the high on the USA east coast

 

[Big Innes Madori]

Posted 6 minutes ago

Not so good the 18z ends up in familiar territory

 

After a very brief northerly puff zonality threatens. 

•          Ian Brown like this
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Mmmm!

Noo who Liked this post in the MT, ah wundur?

 

 

Big Innes

Edited January 3, 2014 by Big Innes Madori

[Cheggers]

Floods are getting bad in Wales...

[mistyqueen]

Morning guys! Calm here, temp 6.2, nae rain     Canny quite believe that! Not sure when/if the next storm is going to hit us at all. We may just get a wee puff and the occasional drip....I live in hope! Pics from doon sooth pretty bad though. Another big storm surge is just what they don't need.