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Scotland - Regional Discussion - 23/12/13 >>>


lorenzo

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Posted
  • Location: Premnay, Insch, Aberdeenshire, 184 m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snaw
  • Location: Premnay, Insch, Aberdeenshire, 184 m asl

A sunny new year here too. Nice way to start but doesn't look permanent...

 

Aye, next batch o pish making it's way north. Will be with me soon; crossing the border right now.

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Posted
  • Location: Leith
  • Weather Preferences: Anything outwith the mean.
  • Location: Leith

Happy new year everyone ! All the best to you and yours in this rather special year of 2014 Posted Image

 

Haven't been on here much this last couple of months, busy with this and that and the other...lets hope we can manage at least one decent cold spell this winter...

 

Seasonal day here in Leith, heading out later to walk off the effects of last nights half-bottle of JD ! (aye, I'm a lightweight)

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Posted
  • Location: Tullynessle/Westhill
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and snowy or warm and dry
  • Location: Tullynessle/Westhill

Happy new year from Aberdeenshire too. Decent enough day here at the moment. A dry 6.1C but not much in the way of sunshine. Yesterdays rain total was a mere 3mm, which surprised me as it certainly seemed much wetter. Maybe my back garden was just in a dry spot.

 

Lets hope for something more winter like in Jan than we've had in Dec. Normally I'm fairly relaxed about the weather and take what we get (non other choice really) but this mild wet stuff is getting tedious, and here we've not had it as bad as a lot have.

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Posted
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: dry sunny average summers and really cold snowy winters
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level

good day folks hope you all enjoy yourselves last night and aren't feeling too fragile this morning.

 

the models have started coming along a little more with the pattern today with the ECM still playing catch up so don't look past 96hr on that one just now till it gets the Alaskan ridge fully sorted as tis affects the phasing of the low over America and then goes on to affect our ridge pushing it too far east but it was definitely getting there this morning as you can see it moves more energy from the ridge into the arctic but at least its coming more into line with its ensembles

 

post-18233-0-62274900-1388582623_thumb.gpost-18233-0-54940400-1388582672_thumb.p

 

the GFS 0z is better at 156hr for what I am looking towards anyway and what it had pointed out in the first place and also what the ECM had pointed out as well that they seem to be working back towards with more robust heights to our north then shows a little what I was talking about with pushing through some residual energy from Canada through to Europe as you can see from the chart below and the link to the run

 

post-18233-0-27706700-1388582673_thumb.phttp://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?mode=0&ech=6&heure=0&jour=1&mois=1&annee=2014&archive=1&carte=1

 

now theres still lots of time to go and a lot to be worked out but its along the lines of what I am looking for and we will just have to wait and see if I am right or wrong.

 

 

now I don't fully understand the strat just yet but I wonder if this may be some response to pretty strong wave 2 activity we are seeing that seems to be moving down as you can see in the chart below and also the chart of temp mean where you can see the pressure starting to tell a little on the vortex.

 

post-18233-0-01550200-1388582694_thumb.gpost-18233-0-61282900-1388582693_thumb.g

 

now finally I just wanted to put in the AO and NAO forecasts and we have seen the AO forecast temper somewhat but still staying on the negative side but the more telling one is we are starting to see a few dip negative in the NAO forecast and hopefully we will see this continue

 

post-18233-0-25977600-1388583181_thumb.gpost-18233-0-81465600-1388582673_thumb.g

 

plus just a small note for anyone who may be fairly new looking at the GFS charts and thinking I don't see any blocking as there isn't any of the greens or yellows to our north we are told to look for with blocking well this may come with time as the models progress although we don't need big blocky high pressures to our north we have had plenty cold weather with just mediocre blocks to our north in the past and is always a better start than nothing at all and can always be built on further down the line with secondary pushes of heights to reinforce the block.

 

EDIT: will just add these in as well todays AO and NAO forecasts I wasn't sure if these would update as of the date but they have so here they are the AO stays negative but swings a fair bit and the NAO stays pretty similar

 

post-18233-0-77085300-1388585542_thumb.gpost-18233-0-70781800-1388585531_thumb.g

Edited by Buriedundersnow
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Posted
  • Location: Dunoon, Argyll Scotland
  • Location: Dunoon, Argyll Scotland

Happy New Year All.

 

First storm of 2014 looks to be on it's way for Friday at the moment 60 to 70mph gusts are likely through out the day for the South West, South and East,

 

post-6686-0-02622000-1388584292_thumb.pn

 

Still expect changes to this at the moment it doesn't look as bad as some of the storms we saw in December but still something to talk about.

 

Met Office also have a early warning out but they don't expect the gusts to be that high,

 

A developing Atlantic low pressure system is expected to move northeastwards just to the west of Scotland on Friday. This will push further bands of locally heavy rain across the UK and winds will gust to around 50-60 MPH over coasts and hills. Whilst this is not especially strong, lowering pressure will combine with high tides around the UK coastline and bring the risk of some flooding. 

 

So we might either see the GFS downplay the wind speeds or the Met Office upgrade them.

Edited by weathermaster
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Posted
  • Location: Comrie, Perthshire, Bonnie Scotland
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: bright & frosty/snowy; summer: hot and sunny.
  • Location: Comrie, Perthshire, Bonnie Scotland

To all fellow kilters: 

 

 

A Guid New Year to ane an' a'
An' mony may ye see,
An' during a' the years to come,
O happy may ye be.

 

 

post-6412-0-52726300-1388585149_thumb.jp

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Posted
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: dry sunny average summers and really cold snowy winters
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level

forecast for yllas finland from the CFSv2 and looks like its to tank in the extended so either a northerly or easterly setting in there if this is right

 

post-18233-0-46201500-1388586373_thumb.p

 

nice chart chowing the low moving in on Friday

 

post-18233-0-35817200-1388586664_thumb.p

 

also nice surface pressure and jet stream chart for Saturday showing the lows setting there eyes on us

 

post-18233-0-35966600-1388586512_thumb.p

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Posted
  • Location: Dundee
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunderstorms, gales. All extremes except humidity.
  • Location: Dundee

Happy new year from a cold and wet Dundee!

I am told that it was a bright and sunny morning but I am afraid I didn't see any of it.

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Posted
  • Location: NH7256
  • Weather Preferences: where's my vote?
  • Location: NH7256

Heaviest rain of 2014 here.

 

Pure tankin it doon.

Radar shows that well Posted Image . Also some mental rain in England & Wales showing up like someone's taken a shotgun to the map Posted Image

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Posted
  • Location: near Jedburgh
  • Weather Preferences: well it depends.. just not haar!
  • Location: near Jedburgh

Am getting bloody sick of weather and all that sails (or stotts or splashes or hammers) in it!

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Posted
  • Location: Comrie, Perthshire, Bonnie Scotland
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: bright & frosty/snowy; summer: hot and sunny.
  • Location: Comrie, Perthshire, Bonnie Scotland

A wee Ne'er Day restorative. 

 

 

post-6412-0-56776900-1388596647_thumb.jp

 

 

 

 

Current weather in Crieff: 5.0ºC & properly p*shing it down. Again. 

 

Bring on a pattern change and some snaw to celebrate the New Year!  Posted Image

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Posted
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: dry sunny average summers and really cold snowy winters
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level

polar vortex defo being put under pressure and losing some of its mojo as this chart has updated since my earlier post but if you go back and compare them both you can see a nice purple plunge developing at the end

 

post-18233-0-48677100-1388597272_thumb.g

 

time will tell if we can get anywhere

Heaviest rain of 2014 here.

 

Pure tankin it doon.

 

 

not hard with it being the first rain of 2014 Posted Image

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Posted
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: dry sunny average summers and really cold snowy winters
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level

also a new colour appearing on the wave 2 chart

 

post-18233-0-29751400-1388597611_thumb.g

 

also see the wave 1 showing

 

post-18233-0-99084100-1388597612_thumb.g

 

and maybe someone else can tell me what the hell is wave 3

 

post-18233-0-04503800-1388597614_thumb.g

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Posted
  • Location: Premnay, Insch, Aberdeenshire, 184 m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snaw
  • Location: Premnay, Insch, Aberdeenshire, 184 m asl

 

time will tell if we can get anywhere

 

 

Certainly starting to see a large spread in the GFS ensembles from ~1 week out. The spread has been growing and getting closer over the past few days. Quite a few colder members.

 

ECM coming up with some rather weird synoptics too. I mean is this the beginnings of an easterly or a big westerly...

 

http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/ecmimages/20140101/12/ecmt850.240.png

 

Posted Image

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Posted
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: dry sunny average summers and really cold snowy winters
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level

Certainly starting to see a large spread in the GFS ensembles from ~1 week out. The spread has been growing and getting closer over the past few days. Quite a few colder members.

 

ECM coming up with some rather weird synoptics too. I mean is this the beginnings of an easterly or a big westerly...

 

http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/ecmimages/20140101/12/ecmt850.240.png

 

Posted Image

 

 

personally I think the ECM has it a little wrong this time and is catching the GFS I have noticed over the last days its been having to catch up all the way down to 72hr with the ridging seen over Alaska and then that has been causing it to phase the low on the US east coast wrong with the vortex which I think blows it up too much which then affects the ridge in the Atlantic maybe that's why JOE B and RYAN MAUE have been showing on twitter recently that the ECM has been tempering down the cold run by run a little over in America as it sorts out the Alaskan ridge.

 

as usual with the models we will have to wait and see but I think GFS may have the lead on this one just now and ECM is playing catch up.

 

don't think we are near deep cold just yet but we may be on our way

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Posted
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: dry sunny average summers and really cold snowy winters
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level

LORENZO a few questions bout that GWO site

 

when using the composites for this time period do I use DJF or JFM

 

see above the composites it says lag -10 or -20 is that days lag after the phase the composite will correspond for

 

and finally how accurate is the forecast on it

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Posted
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: dry sunny average summers and really cold snowy winters
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level

I was asking as I have been giving it a look through and if we go by the 500hpa anomalies then I have used JFM as they composite matches the best.

 

we have just entered phase 8 so say we have a lag of 10 days as said on the chart then here is the NOAA 500hpa anomaly chart and as you see it matches quite well with the composite with the bell shaped high pressure anomaly to our north and the high pressure anomaly on the US east coast.

 

post-18233-0-47748400-1388625288_thumb.g

 

we then cycle through phases 1,2,3,4 and if you follow the composites running through the phases it puts us in a pretty cold pattern with possible battleground scenario hopefully the chart will show big enough to see

 

post-18233-0-92087100-1388625397_thumb.p

 

obviously would depend how accurate the forecast is on it but its very interesting

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Posted
  • Location: East Lothian 88m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy winters, warm spring, hot summers - nae chance in Scottie though!
  • Location: East Lothian 88m asl

Well had an early morning look into MT and some interesting discussion, go in if you dare:)

 

For my snowfix today, watching heavy falling snow in Rochester, New York - Jines Restaurant Webcam - fabulous!!! 

 

Scottish thread - trip to NY - who's coming??Posted Image Posted Image

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Posted
  • Location: Condorrat, Cumbernauld G67
  • Location: Condorrat, Cumbernauld G67

Well had an early morning look into MT and some interesting discussion, go in if you dare:)

 

For my snowfix today, watching heavy falling snow in Rochester, New York - Jines Restaurant Webcam - fabulous!!! 

 

Scottish thread - trip to NY - who's coming??Posted Image Posted Image

 

Well had an early morning look into MT and some interesting discussion, go in if you dare:)

 

For my snowfix today, watching heavy falling snow in Rochester, New York - Jines Restaurant Webcam - fabulous!!! 

 

Scottish thread - trip to NY - who's coming??Posted Image Posted Image

I put that cam on (linky if anyone is interested)

 

http://firstwebcam.com/rochester/live-webcams-jines-restaurant

 

Looks like they had a nice dump Posted Image

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Posted
  • Location: Perth, Scotland
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW :-D
  • Location: Perth, Scotland

I put that cam on (linky if anyone is interested)

 

http://firstwebcam.com/rochester/live-webcams-jines-restaurant

 

Looks like they had a nice dump Posted Image

 

 

Posted ImageI'm so jealous right now, all we have is more wind and rain Posted Image

Edited by Allyw12
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Posted
  • Location: Isle of Skye, 14m/49ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, wild! wild! wild! Frost, a wee bit o' sun....
  • Location: Isle of Skye, 14m/49ft above sea level

Afternoon peeps, and a Happy Noo Year to all! I trust we were all suitably p1shed for the occasion and are now recovering quietly ay home? Goad a michty! Hogmanay weather was just dire! We drove to the OH's gig through horizontal rain and howling gales. ( Funny that, eh? ) We met at a  fellow band members house and were all hoping that it would be cancelled....the guys were just not that keen to go and who can blame them? But no! It went ahead and we again drove through horizontal rain and howling gale and made it to the Salmon Bothy. And surprise!!!! It was every bit as stained glass windowin freezin' as we thought it would be. I never took my coat off all night. At the bells you could still see your breath on the air and we never packed up so quickly! It was good to get back in a warm house, plenty scran and a small refreshment or three! Got home about 4.30 am. Drove through....complete silence, nae cloud, nae rain and for the first time in months we saw stars! Fab! Alas, we are now back to cloud and dreichness and I believe another wee blast is heading oor way. Ach well, start as you mean to go on, eh?

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