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Was just looking through the 18z re YET ANOTHER Atlantic Storm fleeing in, so many variances on positioning of these lows that I think even the pub run can't cope !

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Heights and Temps for GFS are on Instantweather maps

 

http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-strat.php?run=2013123018&var=HGT&lev=10mb&hour=360

 

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Just out of interest, a wee comparison between the 'textbook' pre and post SSW tropospheric height pattern and the current predicted 8-14 day pattern:

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Posted Image

and the +168 ECM ens to give a clearer picture of the Eastern Hemisphere:

Posted Image

 

Key features (shown by the dotted marks) on the split SSW (if it goes full blown SSW it will be a split rather than a displacement) precursors are the Kamchatka Ridge, Aleutian high and eastern US trough, and to a lesser extent the UK trough. Roll the idealised model onto 0-30 days and then 30-60 days and you can see why this is such an exciting development and also why charts like the ECM control are likely to become more and more commonplace in FI in the coming weeks. Exciting times...

Cheers to both of you for the link by the way

Edited by LomondSnowstorm
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Initial response still some time away, should 30mb split occur. As chiono wrote earlier improved chances of easterly setting up some 7 days later, then lagged effect of cold filtering down.

This of course depends on down welling. SSWs Not easy to predict, after effects even more so.

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Initial response still some time away, should 30mb split occur. As chiono wrote earlier improved chances of easterly setting up some 7 days later, then lagged effect of cold filtering down.

This of course depends on down welling. SSWs Not easy to predict, after effects even more so.

 

Yep, although I suppose the 'spinning plates' analogy does lend itself to the idea that the colder the strat the more spectacular the fall. It could be a 2012 like event where we didn't exactly see the best tropospheric reaction or it could be like a 2009 where there was a strong initial reaction but with a slightly disappointing longer term downwelling, or it could be like last winter where hemispherically at least it was a really very prolonged and spectacular reaction which set us up for an exceptionally cold March - it's too early to give more than an educated guess on that front IMO, but I rather like my at the time massive longshot 25th January beasterly prediction at this stagePosted Image

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another small question and sorry if its getting tedious this should be the last one.

 

is what we are seeing is it a proper warming or is it renewed wave activity that is showing at day ten in the ECM strat charts as in the explanation of wave 2 is warming on two sides of the vortex is it not like in the GFS 30hpa chart

 

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Edited by Buriedundersnow
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A pretty wet day here until the afternoon. I had a nice drive around Aberfoyle and Loch Achray in the beautiful Trossachs - some spectacular pale pink tone in the sky, water and land as the front cleared, a nice mix of pale pink and grey/purple cloud aswell as a watery blue coming through the thin cloud. With all the rain recently Loch Achray was reaching right up to the edge of the road. 

 

This has been one of those unsettled, atlantic driven Decembers with any seasonal weather being short-lived. The difference with this year is that it was overall much milder than your typical zonal December. A really mild spell after a coolish start was responsible. Other than that it hasn't been overly mild but the changeable nature of our weather this month has meant that frosts have been hard to come by and warm sectors in low pressure systems results in milder daily maxima. Despite how mild the month has been I've still be able to see snow on at least 5 days which is sort of respectable. This month could have had less in the way of relentless and constant low pressure, fronts, rain and wind and with a little more in the way of some frosty, cooler and settled interludes and to see a bit more of that low December sunshine or clear sky at day and night.

 

For New Year's Eve and Day I'll be away in Fife but in the New Year I'm hoping to start and complete a review of the Scottish weather during 2013. 

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Not long in after walking back from a party, hick, and its a riot of stars up in the sky. Correspondingly the temperature is hovering just above freezing but the paths and roads are already getting slippy. No doubt it'll be mild and wet again by the time I wake up.

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Morning all! Still dark and dry here, breezy though and the alarm is flashing on one of my weather stations. Glad I don't live in the South West of Scotland though....those poor peeps flooded out of their homes. It was apparently a lovely starry night last night and a bit on the cold side but temps are now well up at 6.3 this morning. Hope the weather isn't too bad where you all are if you are going out partying later Posted Image

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Just for a minute there I thought Dundee had slid into the Tay...

 

I passed the fire engines and 3 police cars outside those flats on my way to the cinema last night, was wondering what it was all about.

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Morning all,

 

Breezy here in Crail with a ESEly, temp +5.4c.

 

Monthly figures almost finalised and Leuchars is coming in with a mean temp of 6c (+2.3c above average). Only one air frost recorded this month. Apart from the week around the 9th-15th where max temps were above 10c every day it wasn't outrageously mild for the rest of the month in terms of daily highs.

 

December 1988 had a mean temp of 7.1c by way of comparison.

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Well its dry here if rather breezy this morning.

 

Went into the MT, not a good idea or you may need some prozac lol.

 

I think we all need to do a snow dance this Hogmanay, it may just do the trick :)

 

Best wishes to you all for 2014, will try and pop back in later on :))

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6c/5.4c/E and rain just starting.  Very despondent on the MOD thread this morning. Can't blame them really as it appears to be 1 step forward and 2 back with the models lately. Only comfort is that at least the end of the runs look consistently like there will be the chance of something more wintry. I don't think the models quite know themselves yet which way we are headed as the only consistency is the inconsistency!

Edited by Blitzen
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Is Edinburgh Hogmanay thingy still on? Thought they would have cancelled that.

 

I thought the forecast actually looked OK to be honest. Don't see why they'd need to cancel it? Anyway - I'll be nowhere near it. Tried it once - never again. A warm house, good drink, food and great friends wins every year :-)

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Was just looking through the 18z re YET ANOTHER Atlantic Storm fleeing in, so many variances on positioning of these lows that I think even the pub run can't cope !

Posted Imagegens-13-1-168

 

 

 

 

Is this for real?!  At first i thought it was a past storm until i clocked the date!

Edited by lupe
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ah well looks like the models may have either entered nutter phase again and we have to wait to see if they come back to their ideas or have dropped them all together and only time will tell and no point worrying just now.

 

on a weather note I could swear last night around half 4 there was a frost on cars etc outside but doesn't seem any reports of frost on here so don't know what to make of that lol

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I clocked - 3 last night, took the pooch out and it was baltic.  roads were like glass along with pavements to...it felt extremely cold because of the damp in the air..the sky was pretty stunning though the space station was really clear..but yeh real frosty. and then gone pretty quick to.

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Is this for real?!  At first i thought it was a past storm until i clocked the date!

 

 

yeah it looks like theres still some stormy and wet weather to get through before we might see anything better cold wise or just plainly drier which isn't too good for all those already flooded or in risk of flooding.

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When you say nutter idea's is that because this has only just come about on the models??  I cant find that storm on the gfs at all..infact for the 6th it just kinda looks normal?  its like well, there is a significant storm coming on one model and nothing on another lol

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Ah Lettuce the joys of seasonal culinary adventures - chilli powder in the eye I'm not happy, in fact I'm quite sad.

 

What a left trouser leg-poor grey end to the year.  My annual summary is a bit mixed - spent last winter reading endless snow reports but not seeing much at low levels here, then another crap start to the summer which turned out to be a bit of a page 3 really, and quite long. A crap end though with wind and rain.

 

edit and for once the bawdleriser isn't total b011ock5.

Edited by Hairy Celt
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